CLEVER, OR TOO CLEVER BY HALF?

Mario delivered exactly what he said he was going to deliver and the stock markets, not fully understanding what it was went crazy.  For once the leaks were correct; one to three years, not direct purchases but an unlimited amount to be available, pari pasu status with all private ownership, a requirement that the funds be requested and conditionality.  Great.  Just what everybody was looking for with the dded comments that this really didn't apply to Greece, that Greece was special, yada, yada.  Salvation!...well, not quite but at least in place is now something with which the can can be kicked down the road a bit more.

But if you read the reports of the conference something very clever emerges.  Firstly, Mario mentions that agreement was not unanimous (gee, I wonder who) but despite disagreement no one rises to speak against the plan.  Secondly, the "conditionality" that had been constantly mentioned suddenly arrived in the form of an IMF directed restructuring of economies and the requisite oversight as to compliance with the IMF terms.  Thirdly, nary one of the dumbo reporters at the conference managed to ask, "Hang on, what makes you think that either Spain or Italy is going to turn over it's economy to the IMF," whose general approach to these things is devalue (can't do that), cut expenses and raise taxes.  Call me silly, but after the past few years, any Euro government that agrees to an IMF dictated fiscal plan will have a half-life of about 12 hours. Not on, my friends, not on.

But it's clever.  Unable to get anywhere with a merging of Europe earlier in the year to form a fiscal union, why not slip in the IMF for the gruesome twosome to reject instead of the clowns in Brussels?  Can't hurt, and when the Fund is rejected possibly the last thing remaining will be fiscal union.  As I said,  clever or too clever by half?   And if I am correct, that's why the Bundesbank raised no formal or public objection.

Now as you probably know by now I love these little intrigues, but that has been the history of Europe and its states for centuries.  If  you go to Venice, never go in the summer; go in February when it is cold and foggy and wet and empty and scary...and you can almost hear the political assassinations being committed just down the canal and around the bend.  That was Europe 500 years ago and certain things haven't changed much.  At least in my mind they haven't, and while I'll
catch hell for this remember Super Mario's nationality;  they are the best in the business at this business.  If you don't believe me, ask Massimo.

Jobs number tomorrow.  It should be good.  The Leader gets to look at it before his speech (he's already seen it, trust me)  which is why everyone is happy in North Carolina.  Wonder if anybody trades it before tomorrow?  The White House is the fount of all information of every kind.  Watch carefully