I LOVE GOOGLE

Google got mad at me again over the past two days...or maybe I just messed up which could be the case but the result was I could publish nada.  Which perhaps wasn't a bad thing because nothing that I was writing made sense 24 hours later which gave me time to reflect and pause for a moment in my certitude.

Unlike the mystery of the fault--was it me or Google--I'm pretty sure about this: nothing that I  was writing made sense because nothing out there is making any sense at all.  I am completely confused as to what is going on as is I think everyone else.

Take oil:  WTI traded up to $47 a barrel last week and the sentiment on the Street was that the market had stabilized.  Only problem was there was more of a glut last week than ever and there appears to be no end in sight.  The U.S. is importing more oil than in the past two years while production has fallen just 3%.  Why?  Well, according to the WSJ, it is cheaper to store oil in the U.S. than on a ship and surprise, surprise, the U.S. has a great deal of excess storage capacity.  Coulda fooled me, but there ya go and on cue WTI traded down to $43 today.  Now that's a hell of a lot higher than the $26 of a few months back but apparently Iran is pumping and selling so fast it would make your turban spin and selling it at a discount in Europe to buy back market share.  Needless to say, so is everybody else to preserve market share.  See what I mean?  What's going on out there?

Bond yields, after a brief spurt, seem to be indicating that the future is not bright but in regard to the stock market the talking heads have come to the conclusion that equities are "fully priced," either indicating a satisfaction with things or a complete lack of alternatives for investment.  Now if the bond guys are right and the market is fully priced, some people are going to lose a hell of a lot of money pretty soon.  I know about losing money.

Puerto Rico had their first default on Monday worth $400 million and seem to be heading for a second of $1 billion in about a month with the Congress playing politics as to how to solve this problem.  A mess in the muni market one would think?  Nah, nothing moved despite the fact that all the rules of the game could get changed overnight.  It restores faith in humanity.

We had a bank failure in Italy the other Day.  Big Deal?  Not really except that those clever Italians had, in i scuri set up a living will for this institution focusing on it's take-over by Unibanco.  Only problem was when Unibanco popped up to announce that they really didn't think  they were in a position to do that causing the government to institute an immediate bail-out which of course they are not supposed to do.  BUT, not to worry because things are looking up for the Eurozone economy.  Yeah sure.  The largest bank in the third largest economy announces that it doesn't have the where-with-all to fulfill a previously agreed deal and things are looking up?  On top of that, the latest out of the UK has the BREXIT polling just about dead even, tightening considerably in the two weeks post-Obama (gee, did I predict that?) with the referendum barely a month away.  After three months without a government, Spain is about to have a new election and whilst there is little shouting thank goodness, Greece and its creditors are still somewhat at loggerheads.  Buy Euros as suggested?  Sorry can't see it.

And then there is China.  I'm not even going to try.  The latest big thing in China is commodity specu...ah...investing.  Why not.  The government in the first four months of the year pumped about a trillion and a half into the economy.  Heck, you have to spend it somewhere.  Good for the fly-over zone, however.  Live Hogs have been up for a week.  Who says we're not part of globalization.

I could get onto to Japan but that is a chapter in itself.  Besides, the more I write on a wet, miserable day like this the more I get depressed.  I should stop writing.  I wonder.  Did Google have my well-being in mind?  What a lovely thought.

STILL SPOOLING

This will take longer than I thought.  There are a lot of mixed messages out there and some odd things going on.  Equities moved up again today along with oil on reports from Venezuela that the Zulus and the Russian and the Qataries were planning a get-together to stabilize prices.  Like, Dude, who cares. The House of Saud announced yesterday that was a no-go and that is that.  Are there really people out there dumb enough to trade on nonsense like this?  If there are, I have a lot of work to do.

Speaking of the Zulus, there was a report today that they have informed the international investment community that they are going to service their foreign debt at whatever cost which of course leads me to believe that a cessation of payments is just around the corner as soon as Maduro is certain that he has enough stashed away somewhere to allow him to live a modest socialist life without fear of Latin Justice.  Vermont, perhaps, with Bernie Sanders, or perhaps Hollywood with Sean Penn and the gang?  Rumors have his government selling gold reserves to raise cash which could possibly be correct, as the country's reserves are dangerously low and sinking rapidly and selling gold privately is a hell of a good way to skim a bit (or a lot) off the top for soon-to-be-unemployed politicians. On a serious note, a default here could be a staggering financial event and Christmas-come-early for the legal profession as the Venezuelan government and its oil company have quite a bit of assets located in the U.S.  They have received quite a bit of support from Russia and China in the past but Russia is tapped out and the Chinese may just decide to cut their losses. After all, who needs Zulu crude?  The world is awash in oil.

And then we have the G-20 meeting in Shanghai coming up as we write where today the index just went in the tank to the extent of about 7%.  Now THAT should be a hot topic over spring rolls and some Maotai not to mention a few other things that might prove to be an embarrassment to the hosts.  Watching the dance around these talks is going to be fascinating.

Finally, Brexit.   I didn't believe this when I read it but some executive from J.P. Morgan said today that he was paying more attention to the bookmakers odds than he was to the opinion polls as to how he was going to position himself going forward in regard to Sterling.  Well I never!  There is at least one honest man left in this business.  Bet he's fired within a week.

Charlie is going to be a busy boy.