Showing posts with label Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Clinton. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

WORKIN' ON THAT TAN

Another beautiful day today.  Few more of these and I'm going to look like George Hamilton helped immeasurably by Janet & Co, doing exactly what everybody thought they would do; leave everything in place, say there is less risk out there (translation: we got BREXIT all wrong) and hold out a bit of hope for a rise in September.  On the latter point, forget it.  There is absolutely no chance of a rate rise two months before the election from this Fed.  None.  So we cruse along without a care in the world-- except for around here because the Cubbies are beginning to slip.  Somehow, I don't think the world order will be affected.

The big news today, just breaking I might add, is hat the new stimulus program widely expected...and in some quarters feared...from the Bank of Japan apparently will not happen.  I just glanced at exchanged rates in Asia a moment ago and the Yen was surprisingly strong yet again based it seems on the BOJ expressing that there is no need for a new stimulus package.  Caught me out as I would have been short but as I don't have two Yen to rub together no harm done.  Tomorrow's markets will be interesting.

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It's politics, but I have to comment on this.  Just when the news cycle was heading into top speed in covering Bill Clinton's speech at the convention last night..."In 1971 I met this girl..." up pops The Donald and kills the entire story line with an absolutely beauty:  "Russia, if you can find those 30,000 Emails, you'll make some real friends among these press people (pointing) here"  WELL!  All hell broke loose with the NY Times accusing Trump of asking Russia to spy against the United States and that was the gentlest of the criticism.  Trump plays these guys like a tin drum.  Never for a moment did the Times consider that among all the nations in the world that own a computer the only one that might NOT have the Emails is the United States.  Of course they have been hacked...even the FBI has much admitted that.  But that raises another question for this most extraordinary of all elections.  If the Emails do contain damaging information on Mrs. Clinton as many suspect, is she now and could she be compromised in the future by a foreign power who has that information.  It is the electronic generation version of the oldest intelligence ploy existing, the HONEY TRAP.  If anybody figures that out and brings it up, let me know would you?  I'll be in the sun.  Until November.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

FOR THE SECOND TIME IN HISTORY...

Once upon a time there was this old, jewish tax collector, a profession held in the same regard as a banker of today, riding his donkey somewhere in middle east when suddenly, WHAMO, a bolt of lighting comes down and knocks him on his ass off his ass and the next thing you know he's writing epistles all over the place and being made a saint which in those days was a BIG step up from a tax collector.  Oh, he stopped being Jewish as a result.

Well, would you believe it?  The same thing happened today.  Sandy Weill, former Chairman of Citigroup, got knocked out of his Limo on the way over the the CNBC studios and when he gets there he calls for the break-up of the big banks and a return to the good old days of Glass-Steagall thereby ending Dodd-Frank which he claims is too long.

Now you have to remember that it was Sandy and his big buddy Bobby Rubin who was the Secretary of the Treasury at the time and Bill Clinton who was the beneficiary of humongous fund raising by Sandy who killed Glass-Steagallway back in 1998.  And you should also remember that it was Sandy as CEO who merged Travelers (an insurance company) with Citigroup, chaired at the time by John Reed under a sweet-heart agreement with the regulators that essentially stated that although the merger probably couldn't survive legislative scrutiny, if the law changed in two (later, five) years, it would be finalized but that in the meantime the companies could start putting things together.  Obviously, the fix was in and sure enough, bye, bye Glass-Steagall and when Bobby left Treasury he wound up at Citigroup as a Vice Chairman, doing Sweet Fanny Adams and getting paid $15,000,000 a year.  Oh, somewhere along the line Sandy got John Reed fired so he ran the entire show, and when he was ready to leave he left the entire thing in the completely incapable hands of Chuck Prince.  The rest, unfortunately, is history.

Now comes Sandy who was the prime mover in all of the "universal bank" and "synergistic allignment" movements in the U.S. (it's was and is still going strong most everywhere else) deciding that everything in which he believed was wrong and except for the fact that he remains Jewish, this guy has done the biggest 180 since St. Paul and I ask myself, "Self, why?"  Could it be that he is really willing to admit that he made a mistake?  Not the Sandy we knew and loved,  but who knows? Is there something in it for Sandy?  Beats me, but make no mistake, this sets the debate at a much higher level and if has the effect of killing Dodd-Frank that would be a great thing but of course it will not.  Frankly, I couldn't care less one way or the other.  Break em up!  Think you will have accomplished anything?  Think again. It was the failure of the purest of the investment banks from a business-line standpoint, Lehman, that started the whole thing rolling down hill.  With Sandy, the truth will out as it always does but I have a delicious theory which I share with you.

Remember who was Sandy's protégé at Citi?  You guessed it, Jaime Dimond, and remember what happened?  Jamie fired Sandy's daughter and Sandy fired Jamie!  Well, Jaime wandered around in the wilderness for a bit but eventually he landed as CEO of First Chicago which got itself bought by Chase and after some twisting and turning Jamie emerges as CEO of J.P. Morgan-Chase and, until just recently, was crowned the finest banker the world has ever seen since the Medici on the basis that he avoided most of the bad stuff of '07-'08.  Of course the reason he did that was because his bank wasn't set up to do it (although he was building the capability at the time) and as luck would have it it wasn't up and running.  For firing his daughter and for taking his position as the world's greatest living banker, I think Sandy is madder than a black snake and it's payback time!  He's trying to break Jamie's Tinker Toy!  It's crazy of course but we live in crazy times.  Tell me I'm wrong...I dare you.

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The Suit was on the Hill today--and will be tomorrow--getting grilled on Libor.  Forget about a mass conspiracy to rig rates against clients; but there may be something here that has not been discovered.  Like Iago, "tis here but yet confused."  I'm working on it.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

RIGHT AGAIN, CARTER!

You hit it right on the head: what I want the Fed to do is keep inflation control...which is another way of saying I don't think the Fed has any damn business trying to maintain full employment in this country or anywhere else.  For two reasons.  First what the hell is full employment?  Thank you, I don't know either.  Second the job of creating an atmosphere in which job creation, production and the creation of wealth can thrive is that of the executive and legislative branches.  Third the stupid "dual mandate" allow the above mentioned to hide behind the Fed when they refuse to do their jobs...which is precisely the scenario in which we find ourselves today. Waiting for the Fed to clean up the mess left by the past administration and the abject incompetence of The Leader and his band of culture warriors is dangerous, unrewarding and simply plain stupid.  GET RID OF THE DUAL MANDATE, RESTORE AN INDEPENDENT CENTRAL BANK AND DEMAND THE ELECTED MORONS DO THEIR JOB!  Whew!


Oh good buddy, five years ago out here in the fly-over zone the price of rib-eye steak was $5.99 a pound.  Today it's $12.99.  Now I know the geniuses who live by the great oceans don't conside the price of food to be a proper measure of inflation but if the Fed wasn't so damn busy trying to set right what the pols cocked up perhaps we could get a re-think of what really counts to Mr. & Mrs. Jones who live in the middle?  At least we could try.

Anyway, Mr. & Mrs. North and all the ships at sea, if we go back about 20-odd years we will encounter the great genius of that time, Alan Greenspan, who reversed the tight money policy of Mr. Volker and the fun really began.  The Clinton years were terrific; hell, I never made so much money in my life.  We are constantly reminded even today as to how good things were.  The Leader tells us if we just raise taxes on the "rich" we'll have it all again.  Of course while raising income taxes, the good ol' boy from Hope slashed capital gain taxes from which all the growth in revenue came...that's right ALL.  Anybody remember the Dot Com. era?  Put DotCom. after a company name and the funds available were almost unlimited.  And from where did these funds come.  Not from under the mattress gang, it was all borrowed money, but hey, while the music was playing you had to dance.

Now, can we spell B U B B L E?  'Cause that's what it was and in 1989 it all started to come apart.  Then came 9/11 and things really got bad.  The Fed to the rescue.  Not content with the results of their first effort the Fed doubled down and promoted even easier money and off we went again.  Just like water finding it's own level, capital searches for investment--the higher yielding the better--and when there is a lot of capital looking for a home the guy who can create investment opportunities can make a hell of a lot of money.  Enter real estate and collateralized mortgage obligations.  Have we learned how to spell B U B B L E?  The rest is history.

But while all of this was going on in palin sight what was not so easily seen was the effect the Fed policy was having among friends an foes alike.  The effect excess liquidity has on the value of a currency is clearly linked.  In both eras the effect was a steady devaluation of the dollar against all currencies and if you rely heavily on exports as practically every nation in the world does (EXCEPT the United States) this is not a good thing.  Your exports become more expensive and you must embark on a program to keep your currency in line and of course the way to do that is buy dollars and create your own liquidity through monetary creation.  That of course reduces interest rates all over the place and mkes it difficult for investors to obtain decent returns on funds to be invested.  So, if you are Brazil for example, you catch a double whammy: you must devalue quickly an appreciating REAL and at the same time you must fight domestic inflation that is a result of of your currency manipulations.  American Central Bankers and Treasury Secretaries are not on the top of a Brazilian hit parade...or any one elses for that matter.  But, hey, the dollar is your problem not ours.

Non-American investment managers are no different from their American counter parts; their job is obtain the highest returns for their clients and they are judged--and paid--on how well they perform.  They are yield whores just like us.  But life gets really hard when interest rates and returns continue to decline and having a pretty firm idea as to who is numero uno, these guys, and gals, increasingly seek out higher yield and by definition, higher risk.  It matters little that the investment may consist of a bond backed by 200,000 homes in palces of which they have never heard; Moody's (who have been paid to do so) rates it AAA.  And guess what?  It pays T+350!  BUY IT!  Best of all, your central bank has all these dollars that they don't want so borrow them or buy the damned things.  The thought that there might be a reason that the yield is so much different never enters their minds.  By this time I think we all know how to spell B U B B L E.

One can take issue with all parts of this post but may I suggest that if the Fed did not see themselves as the guardian of truth, justice and the American way some of this stuff might never have happened.  I guess I'm kinda wierd in thinking that I really don't care what Barclays or 16 other banks did with Libor. I DO care when people like the NYT try to explain Libor as being a creation of the banks in the 1980ies:  I'm getting old but I remember making Libor-based loans back in the early 70ies.  I do care when fools or liars (or both) try to influence public opinion with neither knowledge nor facts.  Just me I guess.

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Many thanks for the kind words from Ewen Watt at Wordpress.  Inside the Beltway but a smart young guy from his writings.  Look him up


Monday, May 9, 2011

IMPATIENCE WITH IMPATIENTS

I planted 10,000 of the damned things today. My back is simply kaput, tot, dead. My hands don't work, my knees are shot and my neck feels like it survived a botched hanging. This is going to be short because I desperately need a wiskey.

Somebody should shoot Greece and put it out of its misery. Poor buggers (oops!) got downgraded again today all the way to single-B...as though anyone cares. Last week, however, amid the talk of the Euros (read Germans) probably having to come up with an extra 30 billion or so Euros on top of the already committed 110 billion, there began the rumbling that Greece would abandon the Euro altogether which caused to currency to rapidly decline against the dollar. That of course was rapidly dismissed by most of the adults involved but the speculation lingered over the weekend and into today. The currency bounced back a bit but the problem that I expect to rise up shortly is the perception that Emperor Europe is walking around without too many clothes on.. I really don't believe that things can improve without growth (as Carter suggested) which means that the boys have a pretty tough call: either they face reality and begin restructuring in earnest or take the pure political route and inflate their way out of the problem. The latter may well be unacceptable to Hans and Brunhilda but remember, this is all about the banks and all about money. Do the bankers get bailed out yet again or does the Volk triumph? Remarkably, I don't have the answer but I do know that this growth thingy better start happening over here or else The Leader and his gang are in for trouble in 2012. There are just so many terrorist leaders out there to whom you can give a double tap and boost the polls.

The Suit and Madame Clinton are in China today along with Jovial Joe Biden which scares the heck out of me whenever they allow him out on his own. Anyway, nothing is certain to come of this so I will leave it to the historian to write about whilst turning to a small but really good piece of news; Poo Bair has decided to call it quits. Now of course this may result in a complete disaster in re the new appointee for the head of the FDIC but I shall try to remain positive in approaching the future. The problem, of course, is the horrific piece of legislation that forms the template for the work of any agency head but ol'Poo and demonstrated such a lack of understanding of the matters at hand that one suspects she could misinterpret the Sermon on the Mount with relative ease. Anyway, she's gone and I just might add another wiskey to my evening's medicinal portion in quiet celebration. I should be in fine fettle about four hours from now.

See ya.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

DO YOU THINK...

Was watching CNBC this afternoon. Steve Liesman, the almost economist, was interviewing the deputy head of the IMF. By the way, do you know the deputy head is always an American while the managing director is always a Frenchman? You didn't? Now see what this blog does for you? Anyway, they were talking great thoughts such as global recovery and new financial regulation. Out of no where Liesman asked whether or not there was an issue as to whether greater financial regulation might interfere with global recovery. Indeed replied the deputy head and the politicians and regulators are aware of the risk. Now you don't think...I mean they couldn't ...would they...I mean is there a chance they read the Blog?Then again, maybe it's just a co-incidence. I wonder what these guys get paid for those great thoughts.

Anyway, M. Le President seems to have backed off a bit in his statement that he was prepared to walk out of the G-20 unless the position of La Republique in regard to compensation is adopted. I suspect that in the next week there is going to be a lot of backing off of previously held "firm positions" and "agreements in principal." After all, these are the least principled humans on the face of the earth save perhaps for the Congress of the United States. But in the end, they have an admittedly hard task. It wasn't made any easier by a speech made by paul Volker yesterday on the Left Coast calling for the prohibition of proprietary trading by commercial banks. He also spoke out in favor of the Fed as the regulator for financial institutions, greater leverage restrictions for non-commercial banks--read Goldman Sachs--higher capital requirements and against the sponsorship of hedge funds and private equity firms by commercial banks.

Over 20 years ago, Sen. Bill Bradley, who is a hell of a smart guy and a guy who loved to get out at the head of a parade, sponsored a very hush, hush meeting in Washington brought on by the Latin American financial crisis and the changes needed in bank regulation. All the major players from both an institutional and individual standpoint were present save one exception: your humble blogger who received an invitation from Sen. Bradley himself as a result of a conversation we had some weeks previous. No other banker agreed to show up. My institution thought me to be harmless I guess. I was was seated next to Alan Greenspan the spanking new Head of the Fed (who has terrible halitosis by the by...most unpleasant and uncomfortable) when his predecessor, Tall Paul launched into the very same speech he gave yesterday save for the hedge fund and private equity remarks there being...by God's good grace...none of them in existence at that time. I remember asking Paul why the hell he was singling out the commercial banks for all this new regulation when there were institutions like the Pru doing the same damn thing. Gruffly; "Yeah, yeah, you"re right." "And try to put a fence around them as well, wouldn't that lead someone else--somewhere else--doing the same thing?" says I? "Yeah, you're right," says my hero. I took a deep breath and turned to look at Greenspan. He never moved but stared silently ahead. Nothing came out of that meeting. 23 years ago.

As you know I feel Mr. Volker was bagged by this administration. He is testifying before Congress next week. Volker has always been the ultimate team player. For once, I hope he is not. He may not have been wrong 23 years ago, but undoing what brothers Rubin, Clinton and Bush did just 10 years ago may not be in the cards.

Have a nice weekend.