SHE'S FOURTEEN STONE!

A while back, my bud Gordon sent me a copy of a story from the Daily Mail about a party thrown for a woman in England who had reached, through a great deal of hard work, 14 stone, 6 pounds.  Now a stone is 14 pounds so this gal weighed in at 202 pounds but she wasn't there because of a weight reduction program, oh no.  This gal labored to gain weight because you see at 14 stone, Blighty considers her unable to work and therefore puts her on the full dole.  It gets better.  Whilst at the party someone figured out that if her boyfriend filed to become her "nurses aide," he could quit his job and be paid more money by the state in his nursing capacity.  Reports have it being a hell of a party.

Gordie added that this was where the welfare state had placed them but low and behold, it appears that, according to the CBO we're there as well.  It seems the geniuses over there have decided that ObamaCare will result in 2 1/2 million people quitting their jobs because the subsidies then provided will allow them to purchase health insurance, relieve them from the "job trap," and make their lives so much better.  This is a good thing according to the administration to which Little Paulie in the Times today readily agreed.  Amazing.  Who would have thought that The Leader, who told us he would focus "like a laser beam" on job creation would find joy in 2 1/2 million who quit because of his signature legislation? They will now be happy.  Mrs. Rosenfeld, who lived below us in Apt. 2B, having left the pogroms of Eastern Europe might have used a different phrase to describe them: Bums.  Mrs. Rosenfeld knew from happy…and sad.

I know, politics again but this is too good on which to pass.  Besides, what do you want me to talk about, the High Court of the Bundesrepublik who today decided that the OMT program of the ECB is probably unconstitutional but just to make sure (and to avoid making a decision) referred the entire question to the EU Court of Justice so that the entire 28 could have a go and proclaim that what probable is not that at all.  Yea!  Home free!  First in the running for gutless award of the year!
There, I told you.

What this will do of course create a hell of a mess in places like Germany and Holland and Austria whose Volk want no part of any more bail-outs from Sr. Draghi and his bazooka.  It is of course exactly what a large body of Dutch voters wants to hear as the push to get the Netherlands to go onto  "Swiss Status"…out of the EU in regard to currency and Brussels but in it in regard to trade... is revving up (Norway has the same status).  All in all, it was a pretty good day for Charlie the Blogger, as he is insured with what promises to be pretty good stuff in the coming months.  If we make it that far, that is.  This afternoon Jacob/Jack let it be known to the Congress that Feb. 27 is the drop-dead date for the debt ceiling legislation.  Less than 3 weeks.  On a Friday afternoon.  After saying for a month that you weren't sure.  To a mob that hates you to begin with.  Would it be impolite if I ask might not there have been a better way?

It's 4 F. again.  We are promised 16 for the weekend.  Yes, a pretty good day.

A DELIBERATE OVERSIGHT

I should have written something on Friday after the jobs number came out but I didn't.  On purpose.  Didn't know what to make of it.  Still don't.  Anyway, the number was up 200,000+ but in a break to the pattern the percentage of jobless rose to 7.4%.  The headline number got all the play but after a close and sober look it appeared that the Quality of the jobs created was low.  We are now at the point where any number gets parsed and cut 5 ways to Sunday, but at the end of the day markets are still looking at the Fed and it is the Fed that is going to determine future economic and market actions.

Ms. Yellen spoke today and it is even more clear in my mind that that the days of creating money are still with us and will be well into next year.  The Fed, whomsoever is running it and the ECB are on the same page.  Japan is certainly into the "Take it, it's free!" camp and the UK remains on board although there are more than just stirrings in light of an economy that seems to be doing far better than anyone had hoped (which is another thing I don't understand).  If the pressure to raise rates rises to the point where the Bank of England must act, there will be absolutely hell to pay in the Euro zone.  S'truth, I can't see that happening either.  Much easier to blame Germany for all the troubles on the continent although with economic growth at less than 1%, one wonders what the Germans are doing to deserve all the heat except operating in a monetary union that at this stage of it's development (or demise…take your pick) favors the efficient producer in a common market…hey, catchy phrase that; wonder if it has ever been used?

Over Here, The Leader seems consumed with deflecting public opinion on ObamaCare to the point where very little is happening.  I don't have a dog in this fight except to note that there appears to be more trouble lurking on the horizon that first believed.  The end of this week will come the promised first report on the number of sign-ups (or not, as the case may be) and the expiration of half of the time for the promise of the fixing of the web site.  More and more it appears that this effort will result in failure.  If this is the case and the sign-up effort collapses, some feel that the political pressures in a coming election year will result in wholesale abandonment of The Leader by vulnerable Democrats giving Republicans effective control of both houses.  I don't believe it but if that occurs, the effect upon economic activity due to the uncertainty could be devastating.  I realize that most readers already understand this but for those of you outside of our boundaries, probably covered by a single payer system of health care, this is a really big deal.  Stay tuned.

A WEEK WORTH WAITING FOR

It started with a Supreme Court Watch, an unusual form of blood sport played only in America. The issue was whether the Supremes as they are known (there are but nine) overturn all or part of the Affordablw Care Act (it is neither affordable nor providing of care) otherwise known as Obamacare.  Surprise!  No decision.  The Supremes do that a lot and they do it on purpose.  It's another way of them telling us that they do not dance to any music but their own.  And so wait wait until Thursday perhaps.

Not too much later and 6000 miles away the newly formed Greek government announced that the newly appointed finance minister who had been in the job about 15 minutes resigned due to bad health.  We pray for a speedy recovery.  Hard upon that piece of news it was announced that--again due to health reasons--the Head of State would not attend the Euro Summit in Brussels on Thursday/Friday.  We pray for a speedy recovery.  Of course their absences is going to make this pow-wow look a bit like a funeral without a corpse but then again we always have Spain to kick around and another in the endless call for "Europeanization" or that into whatever that indecipherable word means.  Keep and eye on Frankie Holland who really thinks he has the wind behind him, or so I am told, coming off his big legislative win last week.  Why that would impress Angie I'm not real sure but that's what the sages tell me.  I think what is behind it all is this intense desire on the part of the political left and some well-placed folks in our administration...sorry, I'll try not to be redundant...to push forward this theory of One United States of Europe formed under the protection of German Credit risk.  Aint gonna happen, at least not this week.  But they have pretty well worked out a game plan for at the end of the day, Spain formally requested Euro aid to bail out it's banking system.

Now Spaind hardly has a left-leaning government but when you have a problem the size of theirs strange bedfellows are the least of concerns.  As announced last week, the money is there (at least we think it is but no one yet knows the size of the problem--stress tests be damned) but how it gets to where it is needed is the real issue.  Angie is dead set against it going directly to the Spanish banks and for good reason.  To do so would be for Europe to assume Spanish bank risk...and Italian bank risk, and French bank risk, and...well, you get the picture.  For Europe read Germany.  No go.  The Spanish, supported by the French and the Italians (but not in the same fashion) will argue against the approach of Spain itself being the receipient of funds but the Northern tier will hold firm and the meeting will adjourn with a tasty meal and committees formed to discuss a broad range of alternatives.   Thursday will be a short meting as Germany plays Italy in the semis and everyone will want to see that.  As for Greece?  All attendies will pray for a speedy recovery and discuss privately in small groups how much of a break they are going to give these deadbeats from the deal to which they have agreed next time they get together.  The real interesting thing to watch will be the U.S. stock market.  If Obama care is declared unconstitutional in whole or in part, look for a big rally off-set, perhaps, by the realization that that Euroland remains mired in gook.  If Obamacare is upheld and everybody figures out that Euroland remains mired in gook we could be talking about a serious decline.  That's as political as I am going to get.

Massimo called.  I'm still trying to figure out what he said but I'll be back with my take shortly.


                                                   ---------------------------------------


Carter was kind enough to point out in regard to Friday's piece that if you got rid of mandatory capital requirements for banks the actual result might be better analysis and reduced lending to every chop shop out there.  He's right of course, but silly boy.  Ask a politician to give up the ability to regulate on any level?  Not the basis for a career.  Having made such horses asses of themselves, we may have a chance of reigning in Moody's, S & P, etc.  but then again I wouldn't bet on it.  After all we'll still have Fanny and Freddie don't we?   Here's lookin' at you, kid