The reporting from Paris was so horrible that it leaves one speechless. The inhumanity of ISIS is incomprehensible. The effect on Europe and indeed, the entire world is unknowable. The refugee crisis spawned by this animal organization could result in the radical altering if not the destruction of European society and yet we witnessed today in Turkey, Il Duce more upset at his "strategy" for the ISIS threat being questioned by reporters and comparing the organized terror assault to the random shootings we unfortunately endure in the United States. It left one speechless; even my bud Gordon in England who, although an ardent Obama Foreign Policy supporter was forced to admit that perhaps Obama "miscued" a bit. Insofar as concerning understatement, Gordie is nothing if not a Brit.
And then there are our financial geniuses who drove the DOW up about 250 points today as though nothing had occurred with whispers that this event may give the Fed pause to raise rates in December coupled with the Euro crashing again against the dollar. Parity would be a bad thing you see. Perhaps if somebody dropped The Big One we would reach new all-time highs. I'm really beginning to question my sanity (yeah, yeah, go ahead and agree). Am I the only person who sees risk out there? Am I alone wondering what the hell would happen if market volatility begins to climb (as it certainly must at some point does it not?) in the face of the remarkable report appearing...and unnoticed...in the WSJ last week that bond dealers are carrying a net short position in corporate fixed income (forget about many emerging markets) for the first time since anyone can remember? With the new regulations there's just not enough money to be made in holding inventory with which to make markets given the added-on cost of the assets, so why bother? In this new game of musical chairs what happens if the music stops? I'd be carrying a chair around with me but that's just old, crazy Charlie. I think I'll have a drink instead...maybe two. Later. Allons enfants...VIVE LA FRANCE!
Showing posts with label Paris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paris. Show all posts
Monday, November 16, 2015
Friday, January 9, 2015
HAPPY NEW YEAR OVER HERE
The first job report of the year was a good one...or was it? Seasonally adjusted (I don't know what that means either), the economy created 252,000 new jobs in December. Good. Unemployment fell to 5.6%. Good. Average wages fell by 0.2%. Bad. The unemployed portion of the work force rose to over 62.0%. Absolute stinko. Well look, it's better than a poke in the eye (feels better today, thank you).
The equity markets pondered this for a minute and went straight down with the DOW off 170 points at the close. So, in tying this up in a big bow, what the first of the year brings us is new job creation at a good level but perhaps lacking in quality; more people falling out of the work force because more are retiring or have simply stopped looking; a decline in hourly wages which suggests a weak job market or a market only for lower-paying jobs; the Fed making coo-coo sounds about interest rates; the dollar up again in trading and economies turning to garbage all around the world. Conclusions? The economy stinks except on the lowest rungs of the ladder (I haven't a clue why except that markets are disappearing) and the only trade in town right now seems to be a solid bid in the bond markets. Can't miss: we're buying them, foreign purchases are higher than ever as a haven from whatever and crashing currencies and the Fed ain't gonna move. One way traffic from now until... Problem is when bonds turn they turn all at once for everybody and there's blood all over the place, but until that unlucky day, bid em! Of course with interest rates at zero there have to be some shorts out there, probably quite a few. Having not a bean, I can watch this one with amused interest.
The year also started off with Il Duce off campaigning, for what I'm not sure. Perhaps no one told him the election was over. His first stop was in a Ford plant scheduled to be shut down. Somewhere there must have been a reason for that but I can't quite figure it out as of yet. This is going to be a highly political year with everything focused on the big prize coming up in 2016, Politics, more than ever before will shape and influence every governmental decision at every level. It's going to get ugly but in one area--financial regulation--we may see some surprising moves as reelection looms for some prominent Democrats and a split between the Crazy Lizzy camp and Dems seeking Donors may well occur. Again, amusement on display.
Finally, there has been considerable talk to open the year on the effect of the energy markets on the financial markets. Having had a bit of oil in my minuscule portfolio I can say with certainty that it could be ugly. Going to try to look into that over the weekend and report back. Have to see my eye guy on Monday which means dilation and all of the other goodies so Tuesday will be the earliest I'm back in action. Wish me luck
Finally, sympathy and prayers to that most beautiful of cities, Paris. We Over Here know all too well what this is like. Nous somme tout Parisienne. Vive La France.
The equity markets pondered this for a minute and went straight down with the DOW off 170 points at the close. So, in tying this up in a big bow, what the first of the year brings us is new job creation at a good level but perhaps lacking in quality; more people falling out of the work force because more are retiring or have simply stopped looking; a decline in hourly wages which suggests a weak job market or a market only for lower-paying jobs; the Fed making coo-coo sounds about interest rates; the dollar up again in trading and economies turning to garbage all around the world. Conclusions? The economy stinks except on the lowest rungs of the ladder (I haven't a clue why except that markets are disappearing) and the only trade in town right now seems to be a solid bid in the bond markets. Can't miss: we're buying them, foreign purchases are higher than ever as a haven from whatever and crashing currencies and the Fed ain't gonna move. One way traffic from now until... Problem is when bonds turn they turn all at once for everybody and there's blood all over the place, but until that unlucky day, bid em! Of course with interest rates at zero there have to be some shorts out there, probably quite a few. Having not a bean, I can watch this one with amused interest.
The year also started off with Il Duce off campaigning, for what I'm not sure. Perhaps no one told him the election was over. His first stop was in a Ford plant scheduled to be shut down. Somewhere there must have been a reason for that but I can't quite figure it out as of yet. This is going to be a highly political year with everything focused on the big prize coming up in 2016, Politics, more than ever before will shape and influence every governmental decision at every level. It's going to get ugly but in one area--financial regulation--we may see some surprising moves as reelection looms for some prominent Democrats and a split between the Crazy Lizzy camp and Dems seeking Donors may well occur. Again, amusement on display.
Finally, there has been considerable talk to open the year on the effect of the energy markets on the financial markets. Having had a bit of oil in my minuscule portfolio I can say with certainty that it could be ugly. Going to try to look into that over the weekend and report back. Have to see my eye guy on Monday which means dilation and all of the other goodies so Tuesday will be the earliest I'm back in action. Wish me luck
Finally, sympathy and prayers to that most beautiful of cities, Paris. We Over Here know all too well what this is like. Nous somme tout Parisienne. Vive La France.
Monday, December 3, 2012
THE AUCTION IS ANNOUNCED
The game's afoot...until Friday at least.
The Greeks have announced plans to spend 10 billion Euros in a debt buy-back which, if successful, would reduce their outstanding debt by 60% (their figures). The style is clever; it is a Dutch auction which puts maximum pressure on those who really want to get out of town. With a limited amount to be spent and obvious pressure being placed on local entities such as Greek Banks who would expect to recoup their losses from the taxpayers of Europe, some folks might just bid early and bid often to be relieved of their holdings closer to the minimum band of 30% rather than waiting to chance the upper limit of 40-odd%. Depending on how much of this stuff has been bought recently by hedge funds and at what level, this could turn out pretty well for Hellas.
Now you have to forgive me but I'm a suspicious old guy and I've seen a lot of these things in my time. The "book runner" so to speak in this operation is Deutschebank with Morgan Stanley in the background providing--well--I don't know what they provide. Keep in mind that anything that gets this phase of the game in the history books is good for the Greeks, for Euroland but especially for Angie and anything that is good for Angie is good for Deutschebank. Now I have no knowledge of the goings-on but if I were a betting man I would wager that Deutschebank has a damn good idea at what levels the hedge funds are owners and what their profit goals might be. Rigged? How dare you Sir! But I bet they're in at less than 30 for the most part which means some serious money is about to be made. Memo to bond holders: if you're looking for 37-38 there is a big disappointment in your future. Never going to get there. Only four days to see if I am right.
Oh, the Spanish banks asked or a bail-out of 38 billion Euros. Some commentator remarked, "Surely this is a good thing." This is where we are. A National government announces that five of its larger lending institutions are flat-on-their-butts broke and we can't cover them without help from out side and this is a good thing? As I have said before, I should have retired to Bedlam. Madness, pure insanity and now we all wait in joyful hope for the coming of the request from the government itself. Once that happens we'll all be in great shape that is as long as the U.S. doesn't go down the gurgle tube at the end of the year or over the fiscal cliff depending on what image strikes your fancy.
And then there's the French. Today they announced that hereto come, Euro financial transactions should be centered in Euroland with London being allowed to participate but not playing an important role. They of course mean Paris, a city of incomparable beauty, lacking only the necessary infrastructure for such a role and a language not spoken anywhere else but in West Africa and Haiti. Can't we all just get along?
The Greeks have announced plans to spend 10 billion Euros in a debt buy-back which, if successful, would reduce their outstanding debt by 60% (their figures). The style is clever; it is a Dutch auction which puts maximum pressure on those who really want to get out of town. With a limited amount to be spent and obvious pressure being placed on local entities such as Greek Banks who would expect to recoup their losses from the taxpayers of Europe, some folks might just bid early and bid often to be relieved of their holdings closer to the minimum band of 30% rather than waiting to chance the upper limit of 40-odd%. Depending on how much of this stuff has been bought recently by hedge funds and at what level, this could turn out pretty well for Hellas.
Now you have to forgive me but I'm a suspicious old guy and I've seen a lot of these things in my time. The "book runner" so to speak in this operation is Deutschebank with Morgan Stanley in the background providing--well--I don't know what they provide. Keep in mind that anything that gets this phase of the game in the history books is good for the Greeks, for Euroland but especially for Angie and anything that is good for Angie is good for Deutschebank. Now I have no knowledge of the goings-on but if I were a betting man I would wager that Deutschebank has a damn good idea at what levels the hedge funds are owners and what their profit goals might be. Rigged? How dare you Sir! But I bet they're in at less than 30 for the most part which means some serious money is about to be made. Memo to bond holders: if you're looking for 37-38 there is a big disappointment in your future. Never going to get there. Only four days to see if I am right.
Oh, the Spanish banks asked or a bail-out of 38 billion Euros. Some commentator remarked, "Surely this is a good thing." This is where we are. A National government announces that five of its larger lending institutions are flat-on-their-butts broke and we can't cover them without help from out side and this is a good thing? As I have said before, I should have retired to Bedlam. Madness, pure insanity and now we all wait in joyful hope for the coming of the request from the government itself. Once that happens we'll all be in great shape that is as long as the U.S. doesn't go down the gurgle tube at the end of the year or over the fiscal cliff depending on what image strikes your fancy.
And then there's the French. Today they announced that hereto come, Euro financial transactions should be centered in Euroland with London being allowed to participate but not playing an important role. They of course mean Paris, a city of incomparable beauty, lacking only the necessary infrastructure for such a role and a language not spoken anywhere else but in West Africa and Haiti. Can't we all just get along?
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