It started off poorly and finished on a down note. To begin--and for what reason God only knows--Mme. Lagarde offered up her view that give the IMF's new numbers on the growth of the U.S. GDP (2.7%) the Fed should not consider tightening until next year. Big time No, No. IMF MD's do not offer advice such as that.
She followed up with the view that Greece needs debt relief. No kidding. But you are in the end game with Greece in conjunction with the entire EZ and the ECB. You do NOT express individual opinions. Dumb.
Finally, this afternoon upon learning that Greece had informed the Troika that they would be delaying all repayments due her organization until the end of June (as discussed here last week), her response was, "I did not expect that."
Chrissy, honey, the Greeks are not your friends: they are your opponents for the time being. They are going to take this down to the wire to see how much they can get and when they feel they have reached that point they will either agree or walk away. In the mean time they build up what is known as a "war chest" The last thing they are going to do is pay away anything they needn't. So let's get real. Everyone knows that you want a deal but this is not the way to get it. I would have loved to be around the Euros and Sr. Draghi.
And speaking of Sr. Draghi, his comments of yesterday provoked another beaut of a day in the bond trenches. This morning everybody picked up on his suggestion that everyone should expect more volatility and he got it in spades. The Bund hit 1.00% for a brief moment and the 10 year blasted up to about 2.45% before everyone took a deep breath and the buyers came back creating yields that were actually below yesterday's close. With gyrations like this one could bet that the drums would start beating that regulation has nothing to do with this and it's just all market movements. Crap. It's market movements alright but in a market that has less and less liquidity and THAT is primarily the result of regulation. Draghi's comments regarding the continuation of his QE sustained the vol but there was also murmurs that if the IMF's economy numbers were right on or even a touch too optimistic in their revision, the Fed might be tempted to get back in the bond buying game, adding to that lovely $4.5 Trillion balance sheet with little market discipline in the form of market makers.
I'm paranoid, obviously. Yesterday I was feeling pretty good; today I'm wondering whether these market swings are like a boat in a blow...back and forth, back and forth, back and.......blub, blub, blub.
Jobs data tomorrow. Should be a fun opening.
Showing posts with label Lagarde. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lagarde. Show all posts
Thursday, June 4, 2015
Monday, June 9, 2014
ON YOUR KNEES?
Madame, you are the Director of the International Monetary Fund. To say that would be a undignified position would be the understatement of the year. OK, you got it wrong but you know what Les Anglais are like. They never miss an opportunity to "give you the mickey" as they like to say. Ignore it…like Little Paulie Krugman of the NY Times who's been wrong for the past two years so he just stops talking about it. It will go away unless the Irish decide to get in a few shots. Never miss the chance to land a couple, that lot, and then you're in the stew pot. But they wont, so relax. After their dumb-ass move at the start of this thing to guarantee all their banks, they're just happy to be around.
So they and of course the Germans tighten up and get all conservative on everybody (including you) and they're looking at GDPs in the 3-4% range while everybody else is stuck at 1% or less including your mob despite having as good a work force and infrastructure as there is Over There. So answer me this. Do you think that despite the advice of Little Paulie and every out of work economist from the sub-continent that works for you, has it ever crossed your mind that monetary expansion might not be all it's cracked up to be and despite Paulie and the late, great Keynes, there might be something else going on? Did you ever think that Paulie & Co. might, just like the economist he is have sat back and started by saying, "Assume sound fiscal policy, a mobile work force, sound labor policies, government stability, no corruption, sound credit distribution, little or no bureaucracy within government, simplicity and paucity of regulation and an efficient system of taxation. Then, let's create a trillion or so out of thin air and drop it on these guys and wow, will it take off!!!!"
Of course assumptions are not reality, and southern Europe has none of these things. Fact is, we used to have a lot of these things Over Here, but the people who listen to Little Paulie are running the country now and we don't any more. Oh by the by, we were at -1% in the first quarter and it wasn't all weather. So Madame, why don't you get up off the floor, dust off your knees and tell the stupids running things in Brussels and in the southen tier that it might not be a bad idea to take a good, hard look at the way things are being run and perhaps come to the conclusion that the problem is not in our stars or lack of monetary creation but in our administration. Warning. Paulie and the New York Times and the Guardian and your Landsman, Frankie aren't going to be saying nice things about you any more but hey, you're known by the company you keep. And this time you will have gotten it right.
Speaking of Frankie, he of course was the Chef de Field at Normandy last week. It was a solemn ceremony at a solemn place. He spoke. We had a president who spoke at one of these things some years back.
"…The world will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it will never forget what they did here."
Frankie didn't read that speech. He spoke for what seemed like hours. He said not as much.
So they and of course the Germans tighten up and get all conservative on everybody (including you) and they're looking at GDPs in the 3-4% range while everybody else is stuck at 1% or less including your mob despite having as good a work force and infrastructure as there is Over There. So answer me this. Do you think that despite the advice of Little Paulie and every out of work economist from the sub-continent that works for you, has it ever crossed your mind that monetary expansion might not be all it's cracked up to be and despite Paulie and the late, great Keynes, there might be something else going on? Did you ever think that Paulie & Co. might, just like the economist he is have sat back and started by saying, "Assume sound fiscal policy, a mobile work force, sound labor policies, government stability, no corruption, sound credit distribution, little or no bureaucracy within government, simplicity and paucity of regulation and an efficient system of taxation. Then, let's create a trillion or so out of thin air and drop it on these guys and wow, will it take off!!!!"
Of course assumptions are not reality, and southern Europe has none of these things. Fact is, we used to have a lot of these things Over Here, but the people who listen to Little Paulie are running the country now and we don't any more. Oh by the by, we were at -1% in the first quarter and it wasn't all weather. So Madame, why don't you get up off the floor, dust off your knees and tell the stupids running things in Brussels and in the southen tier that it might not be a bad idea to take a good, hard look at the way things are being run and perhaps come to the conclusion that the problem is not in our stars or lack of monetary creation but in our administration. Warning. Paulie and the New York Times and the Guardian and your Landsman, Frankie aren't going to be saying nice things about you any more but hey, you're known by the company you keep. And this time you will have gotten it right.
Speaking of Frankie, he of course was the Chef de Field at Normandy last week. It was a solemn ceremony at a solemn place. He spoke. We had a president who spoke at one of these things some years back.
"…The world will little note nor long remember what we say here, but it will never forget what they did here."
Frankie didn't read that speech. He spoke for what seemed like hours. He said not as much.
Monday, September 19, 2011
SURVIVAL
My survival. It was a great weekend; great weather, great comraderie, we won the football game and Herself had a great time once things got underway. God is good. He also made beer and wiskey to get us the rough moments.
Speaking of the times, I could have written this piece in my sleep. As predicted, the central bank mob got together last week in Basel (you can see what I was thinking all along) and while the G-7 were babbling in France the working drones put together a huge swap package covering Eurobank dollar funding for the foreseeable fuure. Meanwhile, the Greeks just today announced that they were just about in agreement with the Troika as to a financial package that will make all things good. The Troika---that's the IMF, the EU and the ECB--I love how these little acronyms pop up, has allowed Mme. Lagarde to answer the question as to when the money will go out with the answer, "Implementation, Implementation, Implementation," meaaning the Greeks have to execute. That's crap, of course, as the Greeks need a bunch by the end of the month and will get it despite no real implementation because all of this is merely designed to kick the can down the road as usual until the leaders can rationalize the banks. Of course the DOW haved it's losses upon hearing the news once again demonstrating...no I wont go there. It is a farce.
Meanwhile over here, The Leader laid out another "plan" today in the Rose Garden. It was a whining, politics-only speech attacking all things Republican and demanding all things unattainable and useless. He continues to completely ignore his (ever notice how many time he uses "I" "Me" "My" whenever it's meaningless) debt commission where, if he would support it's plan on even a cursory basis he could achieve a great deal of bi-partisan support. Re-election is the only object and given the press reports and the polls most folks have figured that out. Consequently, expect no serious efforts by the private sector to move in any positive direction as it has become abundantly clear that the business sector's plan is to wait the man out until November of next year and only respond to him if he wins which is becoming lss and less a certainty. Sad.
But we're back and having fun again all in one piece and still married. I need to get fired up on an issue or two. I think I'll take a nap and think about it.
Speaking of the times, I could have written this piece in my sleep. As predicted, the central bank mob got together last week in Basel (you can see what I was thinking all along) and while the G-7 were babbling in France the working drones put together a huge swap package covering Eurobank dollar funding for the foreseeable fuure. Meanwhile, the Greeks just today announced that they were just about in agreement with the Troika as to a financial package that will make all things good. The Troika---that's the IMF, the EU and the ECB--I love how these little acronyms pop up, has allowed Mme. Lagarde to answer the question as to when the money will go out with the answer, "Implementation, Implementation, Implementation," meaaning the Greeks have to execute. That's crap, of course, as the Greeks need a bunch by the end of the month and will get it despite no real implementation because all of this is merely designed to kick the can down the road as usual until the leaders can rationalize the banks. Of course the DOW haved it's losses upon hearing the news once again demonstrating...no I wont go there. It is a farce.
Meanwhile over here, The Leader laid out another "plan" today in the Rose Garden. It was a whining, politics-only speech attacking all things Republican and demanding all things unattainable and useless. He continues to completely ignore his (ever notice how many time he uses "I" "Me" "My" whenever it's meaningless) debt commission where, if he would support it's plan on even a cursory basis he could achieve a great deal of bi-partisan support. Re-election is the only object and given the press reports and the polls most folks have figured that out. Consequently, expect no serious efforts by the private sector to move in any positive direction as it has become abundantly clear that the business sector's plan is to wait the man out until November of next year and only respond to him if he wins which is becoming lss and less a certainty. Sad.
But we're back and having fun again all in one piece and still married. I need to get fired up on an issue or two. I think I'll take a nap and think about it.
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