Told ya so. I didn't expect the government to change but after the first failed vote the Slovaks got themselves a new government and voted "Aye" on the increased bail-out package. Joy, satisfaction and praise even from the former managing editor of the New York Times who pointed out the true exceptionalism of Slovakia in comparison to those who might reserve this claim for the good ol' U.S. of A. A putz if there ever was one but then again it IS The Times.
Up went the stock market fueled by this bit of news last week and the anticipation of the Sarkozy/Merkel tryst of the weekend and down it came today after the German Finance minister dumped a huge pot of cold water on the thought that there would be some "Grand Plan" announced at next week's G-20 gathering. Herr Schaeuble has gotten into this annoying habit of actually speaking the truth from time to time probably because he's in the center of things and actually does know what's going on as well as being attuned to the fact that any "Grand Plan" is going to be based mainly on the use of his money. Suffice to say, nothin' goin' down next week or anytime soon for that matter. The Greeks get their money, the can gets kicked and Christmas comes along. Oh yeah, as Steve Jobs would have said, "there's just one more thing..." the French elections.
The Socialist Party has chosen Francois Holland, a moderate leftist, to run against He With The Hottest First Lady Around, preggers or not, in next year's Presidential election. Right now, the Socialists could run five guys named Schwartz against Sarkozy and each would win, a reflection of how low is his standing. There is no doubt that the Euroland financial mess will be high of the list of campaign issues as it will be for Frau Merkel which means that both leaders have to tred very cautiously...beginning now. To be honest, I have no real feel for the French electorate's leaning at this point but being the good pol that he is, M. Sarkozy is certain not to agree to anything definitive until he has concluded that the decision will gain him votes in the election. Not only is that going to take a bit of time, but the kissy, kissy/huggie, huggie relationship now going on with his German counterpart may come under a bit of strain if the German electorate and the French mob don't see eye to eye. The last time that happened, if I remember correctly, was some time around the Second Crusade and it was iffy then.
And so, we move into the start of another week, of speculation, posturing and nonsensical reporting from the know-nothings who call themselves the financial press. Of course this gives The Leader more time to hone his "It's all Europe's fault" campaign. Then again, next week is a GREAT football weekend, the World Series AND the All Blacks against France. France? FRANCE?! The lads wont even need the Haaka.
Showing posts with label NY TIMES. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NY TIMES. Show all posts
Monday, October 17, 2011
Thursday, September 29, 2011
ENTER LAUGHI...ERR...LIESMAN
Tuesday morning, CNBC opened with an exclusive from Steve Liesman which appeared to quote European sources that an agreement had been reached in principal for a European debt solution involving, among other things, the setting up of a new financial institution to be capitalized by the Euro members which would act as the purchaser of soverign debt to perhaps in excess of 2 trillion Euros in conjunction with an agreement for a TARP-like recapitalization of the European banking system. Steve appeared quite pleased with himself, the crisis was declared nearly over and market futures went through the roof in anticipation of the financial equivalent of "Peace in Our Time." None of it was accurate.
Now Liesman is a pretty good reporter who has won many awards including a Pulitizer so one may ask just how he could have gotten this wrong and it would be a damn good question. The answer in my mind would be that he trusted his source implicitly. As we discussed yesterday it is highly unlikely the story originated in Europe for none of the people I talked to in Euroland had any knowledge of such an agreement and while my sources are not nearly as extensive as Mr, Liesmans', they generally have a pretty good idea of what's going on. Further, I doubt that Liesman would have gone with the story in such a completely positive manner with nary a disclaimer unless he was absolutely certain that the source was unquestioned. In my mind that points to the source being no other than The Suit himself, the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States.
Remember that Mr. Geithner was interviewed by Liesman prior to his trip and said with nary a doubt that Greece would not default and that the Euros had a plan which wrong footed everybody as all signs would have led one to an opposite conclusion. Off he goes to Poland, lectures the Euros as to what they should do (which looks very much like our acts c. 2009), back he comes and lo and behold Liesman announces a solution very much along the lines of what The Suit was suggesting. Except it wasn't real. Poor ol' Steve Liesman was bagged.
What Liesman suggested was never remotely possible to achieve and he should have known it. I have no sympathy for him but nothing but distain for CNBC for allowing crap like this to be broadcast, influencing markets and allowing itself to be used for the bases of purposes. That was my view yesterday and still is, but I got a call today from my political friend Jerry, that got me thinking about something that had been troubling me but which I couldn't quite articulate.
"Good one yesterday, Charlie. I laughed like hell."
"Thanks. Praise is always welcome."
"I know where you're going with this but you better ask yourself something."
"What?"
"Why."
"Why what?"
"Why did he do all this. He's out of character. There's a reason and not a simple one. Think about it."
...and he rang off. So I REALLY thought about it all morning because Jerry had articulated it for me and then I read the leading article in the NY Times and a terribly uncomfortable thought occured.
Remember, just a few days ago in writing about Little Paulie lastest shill job for The Leader I mentioned that one should watch what the Times prints because there is a tendency for its words to reappear in the not too distant future as a major position of The Leader and his party. Today's editorial was about--among other things--the failure of Europe and its finances.
At Ft. Benning, Georgia, the home of the Infantry, as you enter there is a bronze statue of a soldier with a rifle waving to his colleagues behind him with the inscription, "I am the Infantry, FOLLOW ME!" The Suit was never an infantryman. The Suit is never out front. He is not unintelligent but he establishes consensus rather than demanding agreement. He doesn't lead, he agrees. And so, all of his statements and actions over the past few weeks have been completely out of character and I missed it, flat missed it. Then why, I asked myself, and Self came back with an answer that troubles me greatly. Perhaps the Geithner/Liesman interplay wasn't about self-esteem but about creating a legend. Perhaps it wasn't about financial solutions at all, but all about creating a fall guy if you think, nay, truly believe that things are going to get a lot worse between now and next November. Dubya doesn't work any more; you need a REALLY BIG fall guy. How about Europe, and if the New York Times begins to blame our decline and the global financial decline on Europe and China (unimportant for these purposes) so much the better. And this morning, there it was in the Times. I'm not sure, but it just may be that The Suit didn't go to Europe, he was sent.
Last evening, Frau Merkel received the supporting votes she needed for Germany to agree to the bail-out package of nearly 500 billion Euros which had been in considerable doubt. The promises and deals she had to make I'm sure cost her dearly in a political sense but she got it done. Good on her. Of course it changes little: Greece will get the money they need for the next payment and down the road will go the can. It's still all about the banks and perhaps they can work on that in the time that I think has been created but without the soverign debt situation rationalized...
Now Liesman is a pretty good reporter who has won many awards including a Pulitizer so one may ask just how he could have gotten this wrong and it would be a damn good question. The answer in my mind would be that he trusted his source implicitly. As we discussed yesterday it is highly unlikely the story originated in Europe for none of the people I talked to in Euroland had any knowledge of such an agreement and while my sources are not nearly as extensive as Mr, Liesmans', they generally have a pretty good idea of what's going on. Further, I doubt that Liesman would have gone with the story in such a completely positive manner with nary a disclaimer unless he was absolutely certain that the source was unquestioned. In my mind that points to the source being no other than The Suit himself, the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States.
Remember that Mr. Geithner was interviewed by Liesman prior to his trip and said with nary a doubt that Greece would not default and that the Euros had a plan which wrong footed everybody as all signs would have led one to an opposite conclusion. Off he goes to Poland, lectures the Euros as to what they should do (which looks very much like our acts c. 2009), back he comes and lo and behold Liesman announces a solution very much along the lines of what The Suit was suggesting. Except it wasn't real. Poor ol' Steve Liesman was bagged.
What Liesman suggested was never remotely possible to achieve and he should have known it. I have no sympathy for him but nothing but distain for CNBC for allowing crap like this to be broadcast, influencing markets and allowing itself to be used for the bases of purposes. That was my view yesterday and still is, but I got a call today from my political friend Jerry, that got me thinking about something that had been troubling me but which I couldn't quite articulate.
"Good one yesterday, Charlie. I laughed like hell."
"Thanks. Praise is always welcome."
"I know where you're going with this but you better ask yourself something."
"What?"
"Why."
"Why what?"
"Why did he do all this. He's out of character. There's a reason and not a simple one. Think about it."
...and he rang off. So I REALLY thought about it all morning because Jerry had articulated it for me and then I read the leading article in the NY Times and a terribly uncomfortable thought occured.
Remember, just a few days ago in writing about Little Paulie lastest shill job for The Leader I mentioned that one should watch what the Times prints because there is a tendency for its words to reappear in the not too distant future as a major position of The Leader and his party. Today's editorial was about--among other things--the failure of Europe and its finances.
At Ft. Benning, Georgia, the home of the Infantry, as you enter there is a bronze statue of a soldier with a rifle waving to his colleagues behind him with the inscription, "I am the Infantry, FOLLOW ME!" The Suit was never an infantryman. The Suit is never out front. He is not unintelligent but he establishes consensus rather than demanding agreement. He doesn't lead, he agrees. And so, all of his statements and actions over the past few weeks have been completely out of character and I missed it, flat missed it. Then why, I asked myself, and Self came back with an answer that troubles me greatly. Perhaps the Geithner/Liesman interplay wasn't about self-esteem but about creating a legend. Perhaps it wasn't about financial solutions at all, but all about creating a fall guy if you think, nay, truly believe that things are going to get a lot worse between now and next November. Dubya doesn't work any more; you need a REALLY BIG fall guy. How about Europe, and if the New York Times begins to blame our decline and the global financial decline on Europe and China (unimportant for these purposes) so much the better. And this morning, there it was in the Times. I'm not sure, but it just may be that The Suit didn't go to Europe, he was sent.
Last evening, Frau Merkel received the supporting votes she needed for Germany to agree to the bail-out package of nearly 500 billion Euros which had been in considerable doubt. The promises and deals she had to make I'm sure cost her dearly in a political sense but she got it done. Good on her. Of course it changes little: Greece will get the money they need for the next payment and down the road will go the can. It's still all about the banks and perhaps they can work on that in the time that I think has been created but without the soverign debt situation rationalized...
Monday, April 18, 2011
AH, WHAT A DAY
Just as I was about to tuck into my egg, bacon and mushroom breakfast with two slices of toast (ONE egg--cholesterol problems) and my second cup of Joe, S & P announced that the future of the debt rating of the United States of America now has a negative outlook. Futures tanked and when the market opened the Dow was down 150 which widened to down 250 before recovering this afternoon. The state of our credit situation seemed to catch everybody by surprise. I immediately added another egg to my breakfast deciding that would be the most pleasant way to commit suicide.
HELLO?!! ANYBODY LISTENING?
CNBC had a talking head on from the rating agency and was ask by Steve Liseman whether the negative outlook meant that there was an increased risk of default. And it was then that the reason we find ourselves in such a mess came to me: everybody involved in the financial business today is an idiot. What the hell connotation does he think "negative" has and you mean to tell me that until S & P made this brave call nobody in the stock market thought that there might be a problem? The Leader and company rushed out Austin Goolsblee, the head economic hummer for the Administration who pointed out that S & P was alone in this call thereby demonstrating that he, too, is an idiot. Everybody and his brother will pile on within the week...not that any of it makes any difference at all. Unless the debt ceiling doesn't get raised, the U.S. is not going to default and even in that case there's a question. What it does mean, however, is that the Euro and everthing else goes up against the dollar, maturities of Treasury debt ratchet in and once again, the wellness of the muni market gets put into question a fact which seemed to escape most of the commentary on the tube today.
So, while all this was going on the results of an election in Finland, which should have received more time, got lost. What happened was that following the results, the government, in order to stay in power might well have to enter into a coallition with a small political party that is completely against future Euro bail-outs unless private creditors share the pain. For private creditors, read the European banking system which, under the rules presently in place, ain't ready. It also means by-by Greece, Portugal and who knows who else. Really makes one smile and chuckle a bit. You see, on issues like spending money on bailouts any one nation in the Union has a veto. Quite a political concept. Exactly 150 years ago we sacrificed 660,000 men to avoid such a political result essentially over a single issue. 'Course that mob over there have been killing each other for 800 years so I guess it's to be expected. But make no mistake, this is big stuff and I have no idea how they are going to work it out.
Finally, the op ed page of the Times today took the cake. A regular, Ross Douthat, the Time's show conservative spoke on taxes. Problem is, he got it all wrong, while just above and to the right Little Paulie Krugman has demonstrated that he has gone completely and utterly starkers. Seems he wants The Leader to become more partisian and demonstrate more lack of breeding than he did in the speech last week. Just what we need at this stage. Negative outlook. Huummmmmm.
HELLO?!! ANYBODY LISTENING?
CNBC had a talking head on from the rating agency and was ask by Steve Liseman whether the negative outlook meant that there was an increased risk of default. And it was then that the reason we find ourselves in such a mess came to me: everybody involved in the financial business today is an idiot. What the hell connotation does he think "negative" has and you mean to tell me that until S & P made this brave call nobody in the stock market thought that there might be a problem? The Leader and company rushed out Austin Goolsblee, the head economic hummer for the Administration who pointed out that S & P was alone in this call thereby demonstrating that he, too, is an idiot. Everybody and his brother will pile on within the week...not that any of it makes any difference at all. Unless the debt ceiling doesn't get raised, the U.S. is not going to default and even in that case there's a question. What it does mean, however, is that the Euro and everthing else goes up against the dollar, maturities of Treasury debt ratchet in and once again, the wellness of the muni market gets put into question a fact which seemed to escape most of the commentary on the tube today.
So, while all this was going on the results of an election in Finland, which should have received more time, got lost. What happened was that following the results, the government, in order to stay in power might well have to enter into a coallition with a small political party that is completely against future Euro bail-outs unless private creditors share the pain. For private creditors, read the European banking system which, under the rules presently in place, ain't ready. It also means by-by Greece, Portugal and who knows who else. Really makes one smile and chuckle a bit. You see, on issues like spending money on bailouts any one nation in the Union has a veto. Quite a political concept. Exactly 150 years ago we sacrificed 660,000 men to avoid such a political result essentially over a single issue. 'Course that mob over there have been killing each other for 800 years so I guess it's to be expected. But make no mistake, this is big stuff and I have no idea how they are going to work it out.
Finally, the op ed page of the Times today took the cake. A regular, Ross Douthat, the Time's show conservative spoke on taxes. Problem is, he got it all wrong, while just above and to the right Little Paulie Krugman has demonstrated that he has gone completely and utterly starkers. Seems he wants The Leader to become more partisian and demonstrate more lack of breeding than he did in the speech last week. Just what we need at this stage. Negative outlook. Huummmmmm.
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