Thursday, August 13, 2009
I HATE IT WHEN...
However, this tendency on the part of The Leader and Our Hero to control practically everything is not just a passing fancy. Has one noticed that not only are there discussions as to the need for the free flow of credit to resume but that in addition, there is a very clear undercurrent as to what locations it should be directed? The cash for clunkers program, while great for dealerships is about as dumb a use of money the country doesn't have as one can find. (Full disclosure: I checked on my clunker with messrs.Toyota and Honda: my old Acura was made with two different catalytic converters; one qualifies the other doesn't. Of course there is no way to tell which is which. You can't make this stuff up). I though we had seen this movie before when, in an attempt to eliminate "Redlining," mortgage lending was expanded by government fiat with, shall we say, somewhat uneven results. Or billions to the UA...ah, GM and Chrysler on the biggest come-line bet ever made. Oh, as an aside, GM announced its Chevy Volt yesterday with a milage rating of 240 per gallon if you have a 400 mile extension cord. I's supposed to have unlimited milage in city driving. Memo to The Leader: WE DON'T WANT BLOODY CARS IN THE BLOODY CITY!!! But of course, it's clean; it's a shame 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians aren't. In the good old days we used to say,"Hell, it's not our money it's the depositors." Wonder what these guys say?
As a final note to this week, jobless claims went up, retail sales were lousy and the Dow was up 36+ points. Go figure. I guess the continued uptick was based on the fact that France and Germany said the recession was over and it was onward and upward. Did someone, somewhere, care?
See you on Monday. It's too nice outside to write inside
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
WHEN I GROW TOO OLD TO DREAM...
Anyway, the papers got signed today and Chrysler is now Fiat by fiat. As stated in the past, Fiat does know a thing or two about cars and as the price of oil just passed $71 a barrel they may get lucky trying to sell the little things they have on the shelf. It's really going to be interesting to watch the surviving dealers switch sales pitches from Hemmis, 442s and four-on-the-floor to, "Ah che bella picalina macchina!" But back to finance.
Lots and lots of stuff. The Treasury agreed to allow a bunch of banks to pay back the Tarp money and released the numbers on the latest actions by Citi to become, "One of the world's best capitalized banks," in the words of their CEO, the besieged Mr. Pandit. This is coming about through the conversion of approximately $68 billion in preferred shares into common equity which will give Our Hero's shop about a 38% ownership in the joint that never sleeps. Now do you remember way back a few months ago when I stated that the concept of equity and capital adequacy involving banks was a myth? From a dog's breakfast, Citi, through the magic of accounting has been transformed into "one of the world's best capitalized banks" WHILE NOT ANOTHER DIME OF CAPITAL HAS BEEN ADDED! Thank you Mr. Geithner for making me look good again. God, sometimes I even scare myself! The amazing part is people and especially the media, the watchdogs of society, continue to fall for this crap.
Of course, this has given our girl friend, Ms. Bair, yet another reason to continue to yap. Now her pitch is the management of Citi must be changed to protect the investment of the American taxpayer in the common shares and to put in some, "Good, old credit managers," who she believes to be lacking in Citi's strength. For a change she may be right as Sandy Weil destroyed the great credit culture that had been a hallmark of the Bank for years while putting together a totally unmanageable mismash of businesses and strategies. Ol' Sandy went so far as to fire his fair haired boy, Jamie Diamond, now CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase after Jamie fired Sandy's daughter (who by all accounts was a first class pain in the ass). How delicious is that? But while Shelia may be on to something, the situation was hardly unknown among regulators with a brain which is why the merger with Wachcovia made considerable sense as it would have brought to Citi a solid group of domestic bankers and a large, solid core of domestic deposits which Citi sorely needed...not to mention some handy tax consequences. Of course it was Ms. Bair, in an outrageous act of conflict of roles, queered the deal while ADVISING Wells Fargo as to their strategy for capturing Wachcovia.
That's our girl.
Our Hero had a tough one today as well. Seems as though The Leader and his gang got hammered by the Wall Street guys on the issue to pay guidelines so they sent poor Tim out to tell the press that the administration was no longer thinking of proposing anything and that they would simply punt it over to Congress. Bad hair day all around. Of course this gives Barney Frank the ball but now the whole thing gets caught in the middle of both houses so it looks like a win for the execs.
The Leader is now telling folks that Congress is going to be under a strict "Pay as you Go" spending restraint--right after he spends all the money in the world over the next few months. This is a charade and a half, but I guess we have come to expect it. The bond market certainly has. Last time I looked the 10 year had ticked up to 3.96%. If summer comes can winter be far behind? Tune in tomorrow. Ciao!
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
BACK HOME AGAIN IN INDIANA...!
Some weeks ago we joked that Fiat may not understand their relationship with the government of the United States as its relationship with the various governments of Italy have been, shall we say, cozy. This suit, brought by the Attorney General of the State of Indiana on behalf of Indiana government investors against the Chrysler bankruptcy plan is IMHO in the finest of traditions of American jurisprudence. One and all should watch the disposition of this case. It may well prove critical not only in the specific incidence but as to what kind of a system under which we shall go forward. Are we to have a free market society in which the sanctity of contract and the rule of law stand unabated, or will we live under a different understanding of the definition of rights? All societies evolve but not always to the general benefit. Is this one of those moments? We shall see.
$35 Billion in new auctions and refundings this week in the 3, 10 and 30 year maturities. No one seems to be too concerned as to their success but the 10 year benchmark continues to creep upward towards the important--at least from an emotional standpoint--to the 4.00% level.
As this is being written, Oil is well-bid at $70.54 a barrel, up over 2 bucks from the open. Commodities continue to move higher and the dollar in getting crushed. One talking head mused whether these actions might impede the recovery. It would be funny if not so sad. There is no recovery: unemployment is up, the lower advance figure is present only because people now realize the temp jobs number is way up, income levels are down across the board; unemployment has pushed through the 9% level with some Federal Reserve Banks hinting at 10-11.5% by next year. The Leader's plan, after five months has been a failure heading towards a catastrophe with spending out of control and a new czar for some segment of the economy being created daily seeming without any Congressional oversight. Results and improvement need to be shown quickly or confidence, which showed a nice up-tick in March will begin to quickly erode. I fear that this may well be a lost year leaving the country even more vulnerable to exogenous shocks. One hopes one is wrong.
Meanwhile, Our Hero s getting some of his money back as a number of TARP institutions are going to be allowed to repay the advances most of them didn't want in the first place. How nice. But here's a goodie: the TARP funds were allocated by Congress for a specific purpose. The monies to be returned seem to be destined for some sort of "rainy day fund" that Our Hero can use for whatever his little heart desires. Where is Barnie and his "oversight" when you really need it?
Finally, The Leader, Our Hero and their entire mob have apparently decided that the regulatory mechanism presently in place needn't be rejiggered; what we have is ok, what we need is better regulation. So much for Shelia Regina...or is it too soon to announce her demise? Methinks somebody better have a wooden stake close by. This is going to be a hell of a summer.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
CINQUE CENTO
Petulant is probably too soft a description of The Leader's attitude this afternoon. He didn't get his way and was damn mad. In not being able to bully a group of bond holders to give up their legal rights and accept a crappy deal by which a Chrysler bankruptcy would have been prevented The Leader fell back on claims of anti-Americanism, excoriating all involved and pointing out the hedge fund involvement in particular. The Leader always plays to the masses; it is generally agreed that hedge fund is a four-letter word...or at least fund is. So now we are facing a chapter 11 filing that will settle things in, according to The Leader and Mr. Nardelli, no more than 60 days. Good luck to them. During this period, the Treasury (that means YOU) will put up debtor in possession financing in the amount of $3.5 billion and make available to Chrysler $8 billion to run the company after the proceeding is over. From then on it's away to the races with Chrysler making and selling, "The kind of cars Americans want to buy," according to The Leader, noted expert on motor cars who just a few short weeks ago thought the damn things were invented by Americans. Hummmm. Buy a car made by the management team of the UAW and Our Hero? I'm not sure I want to go there. But wait! As part of this proposed industrial juggernaut rides in FIAT in what must be the greatest parody of all spaghetti westerns to save the day!
Now FIAT is an Italian car company with a long, long history filled with success and...well, lets just say there have been some downs as well. FIAT made cars for the people of Italy in the same sense that Volkswagen made cars for the people of Germany, just not as well. Fiat is supposed to provide "world-class technology" for this happy union and one supposes they have some of that inasmuch as they own Ferrari which also makes cars that go very fast, cost up to half a mil and use about 5 liters of fuel (high test) to get around the block. They also make Il Cinque Cento which in English means the 500 which goes very far on very little fuel which is why The Leader loves this company so. The problem is the 500 isn't very big; to call it a sub-compact is being generous. Now I hate motor cars and know nothing about them but my neighbor out here in the heartland--let's call him Bubba--tells me the reason the damn thing goes forever on nuthin' is not because of technology but because it's so damn small. Bubba says if the wife put wheels on her washing machine she could call it a 500 but probably couldn't sell it 'cause, "it don't have no Eye-tal-in styling." Makes sense to me.
Anyway, this bunch is supposed to sell a hell of a lot of cars that Americans have never bought before but which The Leader loves, and make a hell of a lot of money in two years...assuming they are out of bankruptcy by that time. It may work. I think I will still keep driving my Acura.
What really is getting to me though, is why FIAT stayed around for this deal. I have a suspicion that they think they can make money if it works and not lose anything if it doesn't. Brilliant, eh? But what troubles me is that I have another suspicion that FIAT may be influenced by the involvement of the government in this transaction making it look very much like a European venue with which they are very familiar. FIAT and the government of Italy have had a close and meaningful (corrupt) relationship for years and both parties have benefited. They could be in for a real awakening for in Europe and especially in Italy politicians are honest; once they're bought they stay bought and you know exactly what you are getting. This is not to suggest that any of The Leader's people are corrupt--at least not lately--but it is to suggest that this mob will turn on a dime whenever the political winds change or when the UAW tells them how high to jump. If this thing doesn't get reorganized in a relatively short period of time, the internal relationships between the parties are going to be interesting to watch. Buona fortuna, FIAT. Forza Italia! I am also going to be fascinated to see how much and what kind of pressure The Leader is going to put on those traitorous hedge fund and bond management guys to fold. Hell, we don't want grand designs ruined by these bums trying to fulfill their fiduciary duties by managing their clients' moneies in the best possible manner. Not in The Leader's America by God!
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
STEVIE
bigger than the rest of us. Stevie was also a mean kid--not for any
particular reason, just because he was bigger and could beat up
anybody on the block. You did what Stevie told you to do and that was
the end of it. Mostly, you just tried to stay away from him. Stevie
was what we called a punk.
As we got older a funny thing happened: Stevie didn't grow as fast as
many of us. One day, one of us...and I really didn't know who it
was...beat the living hell out of Stevie. We never saw Stevie much
after that. About a year later, Stevie's family moved to the
suburbs. Not long after, I forgot about Stevie.
Now let me make it clear that I don't the The Leader is a punk, but
the President of the United States is the biggest, strongest guy
around and he is full grown. It was therefore quite surprising to me
how many people within the media were remarking on how "strong" The
Leader was in dealing with GM and Chrysler. Huh? The only surprise
in my mind was the manner in which The Leader acted yesterday.
Stevie. There was no need for a public execution of Rick Wagoner; a
simple slipping away was all that was needed. There was no need for a
probably unfulfillable ultimatum; a simple statement that the game was
nearly over would have sufficed. We all understand the Power of the
Presidency; less bluster and quiet action is the greatest reinforcer
of this knowledge. Then why?
I hope I am incorrect, but I am afraid that this is a template for the
manner in which this administration plans to deal with the financial
sector because, you see, Our Hero has a stinko and probably unworkable
plan for the so-called "toxic assets" that would probably be an
absolute non-starter without a nudge from The Leader in the form of,
"Sign here, bub, or get out and go home." These boys don't like to
lose and they sure as hell don't like to admit they are wrong. The
Leader's auto council consists of 20 people, none of whom have the
slightest idea as to how to run an auto company but feel uninhibited
in putting forward a strategy that affects hundreds of thousands of
people. Similarly, if there is a task force, formally or informally
arraigned within the Beltway it too, contains not a person who knows
the first thing about the complexity of running a bank much less
having ever run one, including Dear Reader, Our Hero and those above,
below and around him. Nor will they ask for help. It is, I am
afraid, more about their confirmation of their own brilliance than
solving the problem at hand. They have become so concerned with
circling in the glow of one another that they have forgotten their
mission.
Oddly, the one person that could help in this upcoming debacle is
Barney Frank. Think what you will of him, Rep. Frank is a long way
from being a dope and he actually understands many of the problems we
face. I have never ever met a person within the regulatory community
who has been unimpressed with Rep Frank's acumen. Similarly, I have
never met any member of that community who believes that Rep. Frank
would (or has ever) put the public good before politics or the good
that accrues to Rep. Frank. But as the ads for the New York State
Lottery used to say, "Hey, you never know." Now I freely admit when
one is hoping for the assistance of Barney Frank to set his party on
other than a course than might lead to disaster, one is in deep
trouble. But there it is. If we are to face another session of
legislative insanity and pandering to an public ignorant of anything
except well-constructed (and in some cases well-deserved) outrage,
well, why continue. My views are clear.
Thursday if the date for the FASB decision on any changes as to the
application of 157 which could be very useful in our understanding as
to what the future holds. I will attempt to have a full discussion of
the "plan" before us and what effect the FASB ruling might have upon
the same. I know, I'v been promising this for days and keep getting
side tracked but I promise, I WILL DO IT! Also, keep an eye on the
pronouncements coming out of London on global regulatory matters.
Hopefully, nothing of importance will emerge. Nothing ever does.
A thanks to Mr. Ewan Watt for his kind remarks on his most thoughtful
blog site the other day. I have never met Mr. Watt but from the name
I assume he is one of The People. A lady lawyer once said to me,
"Best have the Scots on yer side Laddie. We're all a bit mad ye
know." As a Hatter was she but mor' an a wee smart.