WRONG AGAIN

Dead wrong was I.  The jobs report was a stinker.  Under 100,000 and while the jobless rate fell to 8.1% it was entirely due to people just giving up and dropping out of the job search either through retirement or frustration.  Not good for Mrs. Obama's little boy, Barry.  What was also not good was the detail in which the media delved into the facts behind the number highlighting, for example, the nearly 400,000 who dropped out which had not previously been the case.  This election is very, very close and as a result I think the popular press is going to play this with more or less a straight bat.  That could be bigger news than the election itself.

In Euroland, mumblings and grumblings.  The Germans are now openly grousing about Super Mario overstepping his role, but Angie is still in his corner but without much enthuasiam.  The Spanish PM was mum as to whether he had any attention of asking for a bail-out whilst the Italians are quietly observing.  In the midst of all of this France broke into the headlines with various stories of the sudden and precipitous decline in Frankie's approval rating and the truly bad economic numbers being created.  At this stage it appears that France might go into recession in the fourth quarter which would affect not only Frankie's future but put a great deal of pressure on the ECB who it appears, in a memo leaked out of Brussels, is to get dominion over all Euro Banks by the end of the year.  Not if France is in recession my friend.  And so this merry-go-round continues as I think we should expect to see a new wave of financial nationalism by year-end.

And what of Greece?  An afterthought these days.  A friend at a British bank tells me the betting line is around 80% Greece leaves the union by first quarter of 2013.  Whilst less and less of an issue, I still maintain that Greece's early exit would remove an important distraction and as we learned a few days ago preparations are well underway in anticipation of such an event.  This weekend is shaping up to be one of pause, reflection and quiet conversations between the major players.  At a point, they are going to have to deal with the smaller countries who in the past few months have been more or less ignored but will have to be accommodated before any "solution" emerges from the events of the week.  Not to be an easy task I'm afraid.

The weekend is to bring us a new grandchild so Monday might be a bit iffy for the blog.  Remember, the Constitutional Court's verdict as the the constitutionality of the bail out mechanisms under German law.  That's the next big event barring something breaking over the weekend.  Don't lose sleep over it.  The grumblings will continue but it expected to make it through.

Have a great weekend.