"Tom, I'm still seeing double." Tom is my surgeon and neighbor.
"Charlie, the operative word is seeing."
We're back, a good way from perfect but lookin' really good...and feeling even better.
Big doings while sidelined on just about everything so the trick is going to be how to weave the past with the present beginning with the election which, as he challenged it would be, was all about Il Duce's policies of the past six years. Yeah, Il Duce. No point of being clever about it anymore, let's just call it as it is and hope he doesn't end up on a lamppost. He, his policies and his party got killed which is going to shape the next two years but of course that hasn't stopped him in his imperial quest the latest being the "normalization" of relations with Cuba about which other than the Castro boys, the Venezulus, the Nics and other assorted vermin and despots in Latin Land, who benefits? Certainly not the Cuban people and the U.S. But, forward he goes, trailed by an increasingly smaller group of sycophants and hangers-on, wandering from one alternative universe to another. The problem is he has chosen a high stakes game in which he holds less than half of the aces. If he loses one of his challenges--just one--be it a real risk in with the Supremes involving Obama Care and Executive authority, or a disaster in foreign affairs, the economy could be brutalized. It is therefore critical that the Republicans, having been wildly successful, prepare for what they have fought and the fall-out from the same. Not to have in place contingency plans to deal with success would be critical. It all begins in two weeks.
On the bright side, the complete collapse in energy prices has been the second most important event in the past month and a half, providing what amounts to a huge tax break to the American consumer and massive upheavals in the geopolitical landscape especially in regard to Russia. Tsar Vlady's imperial ambitions may have been seriously derailed by a world awash in oil and the prospect of burgeoning new supplies of energy arriving in western Europe in a much shorter time frame. The Saudis bless them, have chosen sides in this one and from our standpoint, all the bad guys are getting squeezed. If Il Duce's mob aided in that, good on em'. But times are not good for the Rodina, Belarus--couldn't happen to a nicer bunch--and Venezuela just to name a few. The Zulus could be real close to asset sales and thoughts of default just past the first of the year assuming Duce doesn't do something even stupider and bail them out. Emerging market funds are the other side of this picture, however, with people like Allianze and...ready for it...PIMCO, up to their eyeballs in dodgy paper with the former holding a big number in Russian private sector. Nobody's going in the tank over this but there might well be a cut back or two in bonuses this year. Cry for them.
A third important and truly encouraging piece of news was the roll-back of a small part of Dodd-Frank which sent crazy Lizzy into an apoplectic state which was certainly fun to watch. Poor Lizzy, the minute her back was turned, WHAMMO, right in the neck from my old bud Chuck Schumer whose motto has always been, "Gather ye campaign contributions while ye may..." and the easiest gathering spot is Wall Street. But this is not going to go away and blood is going to be spilt. More on this in coming episodes and on the Federal Reserve which today said it ain't doing nuttin'. The market, which had been awful for ever it seemed immediately went up 300 points. And a Merry Early Christmas to all! Who says it's not about interest rates?
Finally, it became more and more apparent...as we have been suggesting...that the next year is going to be all about Europe, the Union and the Euro. Baring external political events, this is the game to be played and the one to watch which we shall be doing carefully and with great regularity. So, I am really looking forward to the coming months and trying to tie all this together. I hope you're still with me and thanks for all the good wishes I received. Believe me, they were very heart warming.
Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Putin. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Thursday, August 14, 2014
WHAT'S IN A NAME
He Who Knows All Things called yesterday.
"The phrase you are looking for is "Structural adjustment."
"What are you talking about?"
"The point Stan was trying to make. What is needed is structural adjustment."
"Isn't that what I said?"
"No. You see it is vitally important that you use the exact phrase in these matters." You see, despite what you have implied, there are a number of people who have figured this out and they call it "structural adjustment."
"Anybody who counts?"
"Anybody who counts isn't smart enough to figure it out…but they have heard the phrase and have begun to think."
"Is that good?"
"In some cases it is, in other cases it's hopeless."
"But now with Stan…"
"Ah, Stan indeed. This is a very formidable guy. Larry Summers doesn't even get into the ring with him , and is a very smart guy. The problem is those who count and would get into the ring are not Larry Summers."
"Like Janet?"
"I didn't say that."
"You mean Janet isn't smart or that Janet doesn't count?"
"What an inappropriate question…I know, I know, there are no inappropriate questions, just inappropriate answers. Let me put it this way, Janet is going to be a good soldier unless the bullets start flying in great numbers. But then again, she is not the stake-holder in this. But Mr. Fisher has a big hill to climb."
"And the real stake-holders?"
"Oh stop, I don't have to tell you that."
"No, you probably don't, but what gets him to the top."
"Sadly, probably continuing failure, a Republican win in November, a combination of the same but more importantly, I think, what happens in Europe, both politically and economically. Both are disaster areas." The is no economic advancement with Germany now suffering from the overall malaise and France is stopped, economically. The President today asked for the intervention of Draghi into this mess. Curious, Draghi has been a lot of talk--very successful talk--but very little real action. And remember, that talk was limited to the financial system which is his bailiwick. I have a suspicion that Mario and Stan are not too far apart in their views. Will it happen? I doubt it but then one can never be sure."
"And politically?"
"Ask Putin." Although it seems clear that the dogs and cats that used to be the Ukrainian military are getting some help based on their recent performance, it's still up to him. It's quite scary."
"So, structural adjustment is the phrase of the day, eh?"
"Indeed, but use it wisely, otherwise Mum's the word."
"The phrase you are looking for is "Structural adjustment."
"What are you talking about?"
"The point Stan was trying to make. What is needed is structural adjustment."
"Isn't that what I said?"
"No. You see it is vitally important that you use the exact phrase in these matters." You see, despite what you have implied, there are a number of people who have figured this out and they call it "structural adjustment."
"Anybody who counts?"
"Anybody who counts isn't smart enough to figure it out…but they have heard the phrase and have begun to think."
"Is that good?"
"In some cases it is, in other cases it's hopeless."
"But now with Stan…"
"Ah, Stan indeed. This is a very formidable guy. Larry Summers doesn't even get into the ring with him , and is a very smart guy. The problem is those who count and would get into the ring are not Larry Summers."
"Like Janet?"
"I didn't say that."
"You mean Janet isn't smart or that Janet doesn't count?"
"What an inappropriate question…I know, I know, there are no inappropriate questions, just inappropriate answers. Let me put it this way, Janet is going to be a good soldier unless the bullets start flying in great numbers. But then again, she is not the stake-holder in this. But Mr. Fisher has a big hill to climb."
"And the real stake-holders?"
"Oh stop, I don't have to tell you that."
"No, you probably don't, but what gets him to the top."
"Sadly, probably continuing failure, a Republican win in November, a combination of the same but more importantly, I think, what happens in Europe, both politically and economically. Both are disaster areas." The is no economic advancement with Germany now suffering from the overall malaise and France is stopped, economically. The President today asked for the intervention of Draghi into this mess. Curious, Draghi has been a lot of talk--very successful talk--but very little real action. And remember, that talk was limited to the financial system which is his bailiwick. I have a suspicion that Mario and Stan are not too far apart in their views. Will it happen? I doubt it but then one can never be sure."
"And politically?"
"Ask Putin." Although it seems clear that the dogs and cats that used to be the Ukrainian military are getting some help based on their recent performance, it's still up to him. It's quite scary."
"So, structural adjustment is the phrase of the day, eh?"
"Indeed, but use it wisely, otherwise Mum's the word."
Friday, May 2, 2014
IF IT WAS SO GOOD, THEN WHY...
The jobs report of this morning. Up 288,000, way above estimates and unemployment down to 6.3%. Wow, I thought, we're going through the roof on this one.
Nope, wrong again. The markets sloshed around all day with the DOW finally closing down 45. The ten year did nothing except to slide down in yield, the exact opposite of what one would have thought and volumes slipped. Perhaps it was the dismal GDP number of 0.1% but that was expected. Or was it the market reflecting upon the fact that the decline in unemployment was solely as a result of another large "drop out" number from the work force bringing the total number of unemployed in the country to almost 100,000,000. That is a dreadful statistic by any measure and by anyone's politics.
I don't mean to be political but the question that is being increasingly asked is who's running the show and the answer increasingly appears to be, no one. At this stage if one looks to the Fed it's same-oh, same-oh but we have to start asking with 100 million not even looking for work, how are we going to deal with this and the only answer I see is by keep printing money. Now if that is the case logic would indicate that we must see a rise in interest rates which everybody with whom I have spoken is looking for and which is believed to be needed but not a peep from Janet & Co. If anything, all indications are that she is determined to keep things right where they are in almost a perverse battle with the bond boys who are about as short as the world has ever seen according to Mad Max who checked in today asking the same questions. Of course, if Janet really does want a fight, she isn't doing herself much good because with interest rates as at these levels Max and his lot can stay short forever…it's a free roll. I don't get it.
Anyway, on the international front, The Leader and Angie met today to agree on new sanctions to be agreed upon at a later date if Russia crosses another red line in regard to the Ukraine. I'm told Putin is shivering down to his jack boots. It may be as cold in Moscow as it is in the fly-over zone…46F. as we speak on May 2. I just don't know why I'm so confused about everything again.
Have a great weekend.
Nope, wrong again. The markets sloshed around all day with the DOW finally closing down 45. The ten year did nothing except to slide down in yield, the exact opposite of what one would have thought and volumes slipped. Perhaps it was the dismal GDP number of 0.1% but that was expected. Or was it the market reflecting upon the fact that the decline in unemployment was solely as a result of another large "drop out" number from the work force bringing the total number of unemployed in the country to almost 100,000,000. That is a dreadful statistic by any measure and by anyone's politics.
I don't mean to be political but the question that is being increasingly asked is who's running the show and the answer increasingly appears to be, no one. At this stage if one looks to the Fed it's same-oh, same-oh but we have to start asking with 100 million not even looking for work, how are we going to deal with this and the only answer I see is by keep printing money. Now if that is the case logic would indicate that we must see a rise in interest rates which everybody with whom I have spoken is looking for and which is believed to be needed but not a peep from Janet & Co. If anything, all indications are that she is determined to keep things right where they are in almost a perverse battle with the bond boys who are about as short as the world has ever seen according to Mad Max who checked in today asking the same questions. Of course, if Janet really does want a fight, she isn't doing herself much good because with interest rates as at these levels Max and his lot can stay short forever…it's a free roll. I don't get it.
Anyway, on the international front, The Leader and Angie met today to agree on new sanctions to be agreed upon at a later date if Russia crosses another red line in regard to the Ukraine. I'm told Putin is shivering down to his jack boots. It may be as cold in Moscow as it is in the fly-over zone…46F. as we speak on May 2. I just don't know why I'm so confused about everything again.
Have a great weekend.
Friday, April 25, 2014
THE END OF THE END?
It was last week I guess when the Head of the Banque de France announced that the crisis of the Euro and of Euroland was at an end. I think at the time I expressed some skepticism.
I have been watching the close of the stock market and the commentary of the talking heads. It hasn't been a good week, that's for sure made worse by the deepening morass that the standoff between the Ukraine and Russia is becoming. It seems that after weeks of attempting to downplay the global nature of these goings-on--especially by the Euros who absolutely do not want to know--people suddenly took notice today when the Ukraines began to fight back and killed a few people. Russia of course reacted and started flying jets and moving tanks all over the place but what really got people's attention was VISA's announcement that its quarterly earnings were going to be hurt because of a sharp down turn in Russian revenue. My reaction was you have got to be kidding me.
About 10 years ago I got into a discussion with a very, very smart guy with whom my son worked. Despite the fact that he holds a Ph.D in Political Science from one of the world's great universities, I ventured to warn him that Russia needed watching. Nah, said he, a has-been power, never to be a real threat. In every aspect he was correct and I acknowledged such except that I suggested that they were armed to the teeth with strategic weapons and their leader was a nut. Putin is still a nut, but a corrupt, criminal nut as well. It is always about the people, never the metrics in whatever business or political clime one finds oneself.
I bring this up only to point out that risk is where one finds it but you have to look for it for it to be found. The risk of Putin has been ignored simply because it was convenient and profitable to ignore it and only now when the threat has become apparent to a five-year old, has the world become concerned. Make no mistake, if this thing escalates, there is going to be dramatic economic repercussions as yet unidentified. Oh, I'm not talking about theater hostilities because if that happens, the point of discussion is over, but economic sanctions in which even the Euros will have to participate leading to a huge global recession. I mean, VISA? Who would have thunk it.
No doubt, Russia is the risk de jour but, keeping in mind the session I attended in New York, what else is out there that for which we are not really not looking?
On a global political front, The Leader is wandering around Asia seeking to define what his "pivot" means and getting the Chinese God-awful pissed off when he clearly backed Japan's play over a bunch of rocks in the middle of no where. We are bound by treaty you understand which is a bit more than drawing a red line but one must ask if we had an administration that had any foreign policy in place for six years, would it have come to this. Had we understood that the trade-off in China was the ability to consolidate power which meant an even more powerful positioning of the PLA now with highly sophisticated toys with which the heads of this mob are just dying to play, maybe the present and the future of that part of the world might be different. Let's hope this turns out for the better.
To the seeming mundane, people who know about these things keep telling me that the hedge fund guys are in a bit of a panic because everybody is under water and nobody can get out of the pool. Of course, one can simply sit still and not do anything, but then questions start getting asked about why am I paying you 2 1/2% a year to underperform and the meal ticket heads south. Unfortunately, the solution in times like this is to take the exact opposite tack and increase the risk to increase the returns. We create "bubbles" in things like real estate…can one say, "London"…or high-yielding assets like Greek bonds (is 5% really high-yielding given past history?), or mortgages. The geniuses at Wells Fargo (hey! that's what the Street thinks they are) announced the other day that they are back in the sub-prime market which is just fine I guess as the FHA seems to be willing to guarantee everything in sight. Now here's how this thing goes: somebody looks up and says, "Hey, look what Wells is doing and everybody knows they are the smartest guys in the room. Shouldn't we be doing some of that?" If the guy asking the question is sufficiently senior, the answer will invariably be yes, but as the returns are good the "some" will become "a lot." How do I know this? It's an old movie. I've seen it once or twice.
Of course, all of this is greatly enhanced with free money and there appears to be no end to that phenomenon. Janet & Co. are all in with the belief that the Fed can really manage this economy to the upside and oh, if you can supply the same to a government that appears to be absolutely in no way inhibited in spending more money on stuff that hasn't worked yet, that's fine too. Problem is, when one side of the equation written by the hedgies hits a wall and the rich aren't getting richer, problems emerge. Same thing is the nuts of the world begin to be found out as being nuts. When happens then is all the Risk management guys discover risks about which they had no clue and decide that they must be mitigated. They all decide this at once, you see, and they all head for the door at once. It is a narrow door.
Have a great weekend.
I have been watching the close of the stock market and the commentary of the talking heads. It hasn't been a good week, that's for sure made worse by the deepening morass that the standoff between the Ukraine and Russia is becoming. It seems that after weeks of attempting to downplay the global nature of these goings-on--especially by the Euros who absolutely do not want to know--people suddenly took notice today when the Ukraines began to fight back and killed a few people. Russia of course reacted and started flying jets and moving tanks all over the place but what really got people's attention was VISA's announcement that its quarterly earnings were going to be hurt because of a sharp down turn in Russian revenue. My reaction was you have got to be kidding me.
About 10 years ago I got into a discussion with a very, very smart guy with whom my son worked. Despite the fact that he holds a Ph.D in Political Science from one of the world's great universities, I ventured to warn him that Russia needed watching. Nah, said he, a has-been power, never to be a real threat. In every aspect he was correct and I acknowledged such except that I suggested that they were armed to the teeth with strategic weapons and their leader was a nut. Putin is still a nut, but a corrupt, criminal nut as well. It is always about the people, never the metrics in whatever business or political clime one finds oneself.
I bring this up only to point out that risk is where one finds it but you have to look for it for it to be found. The risk of Putin has been ignored simply because it was convenient and profitable to ignore it and only now when the threat has become apparent to a five-year old, has the world become concerned. Make no mistake, if this thing escalates, there is going to be dramatic economic repercussions as yet unidentified. Oh, I'm not talking about theater hostilities because if that happens, the point of discussion is over, but economic sanctions in which even the Euros will have to participate leading to a huge global recession. I mean, VISA? Who would have thunk it.
No doubt, Russia is the risk de jour but, keeping in mind the session I attended in New York, what else is out there that for which we are not really not looking?
On a global political front, The Leader is wandering around Asia seeking to define what his "pivot" means and getting the Chinese God-awful pissed off when he clearly backed Japan's play over a bunch of rocks in the middle of no where. We are bound by treaty you understand which is a bit more than drawing a red line but one must ask if we had an administration that had any foreign policy in place for six years, would it have come to this. Had we understood that the trade-off in China was the ability to consolidate power which meant an even more powerful positioning of the PLA now with highly sophisticated toys with which the heads of this mob are just dying to play, maybe the present and the future of that part of the world might be different. Let's hope this turns out for the better.
To the seeming mundane, people who know about these things keep telling me that the hedge fund guys are in a bit of a panic because everybody is under water and nobody can get out of the pool. Of course, one can simply sit still and not do anything, but then questions start getting asked about why am I paying you 2 1/2% a year to underperform and the meal ticket heads south. Unfortunately, the solution in times like this is to take the exact opposite tack and increase the risk to increase the returns. We create "bubbles" in things like real estate…can one say, "London"…or high-yielding assets like Greek bonds (is 5% really high-yielding given past history?), or mortgages. The geniuses at Wells Fargo (hey! that's what the Street thinks they are) announced the other day that they are back in the sub-prime market which is just fine I guess as the FHA seems to be willing to guarantee everything in sight. Now here's how this thing goes: somebody looks up and says, "Hey, look what Wells is doing and everybody knows they are the smartest guys in the room. Shouldn't we be doing some of that?" If the guy asking the question is sufficiently senior, the answer will invariably be yes, but as the returns are good the "some" will become "a lot." How do I know this? It's an old movie. I've seen it once or twice.
Of course, all of this is greatly enhanced with free money and there appears to be no end to that phenomenon. Janet & Co. are all in with the belief that the Fed can really manage this economy to the upside and oh, if you can supply the same to a government that appears to be absolutely in no way inhibited in spending more money on stuff that hasn't worked yet, that's fine too. Problem is, when one side of the equation written by the hedgies hits a wall and the rich aren't getting richer, problems emerge. Same thing is the nuts of the world begin to be found out as being nuts. When happens then is all the Risk management guys discover risks about which they had no clue and decide that they must be mitigated. They all decide this at once, you see, and they all head for the door at once. It is a narrow door.
Have a great weekend.
Labels:
Federal Reserve,
hedge funds,
Mortgages,
Putin,
Russia,
Ukraine
Monday, March 17, 2014
OH, WHAT A LOVELY WAR
The DOW was up 186 points at the close and Europeans equities were way up earlier as well. Thug Putin had just finished annexing Crimea without a shot so I guess everybody decided that if you are going to invade somebody else's country and take over territory--which used to be referred to as a warlike event--this was about as good as it gets. Of course no one has a clue as to what this nut-job has in mind for his next act and forget about the fact that he sent out one of his little puppets on Russian TV to remind everyone that Russia could turn the United States into an ash heap with no one seeming to have the mind to say something like, "Oh yeah, Boris, and what do you think will be going on with you if you try that?" Nope, it's risk on boys and girls, buy 'em up.
For a small digression, one might look at a map of Russia. The immediate reaction is, "Wow, big country." When I was very young and playing big boy games, I had the same view. Not so, a far senior colleague said to me, "big land mass, no people. They all live in an area that's pretty compressed, and there's only 150,000,000. They wouldn't last long and they know it." And that's what kept us alive throughout the Cold War.
Putin probably wouldn't mind another Cold War if he could fight it on his terms. Problem for me is time is against him and he knows it. The Leader and the EU started talking sanctions today; Putin could deal with those. They are weak and he preys on weak; what he cannot accept is a serious set-back for that would probably mark the end internally. The west has about a week or two to convince themselves that they are serious, but once again there is a depressing lack of leadership. I'm not comfortable, not comfortable at all.
Back to basics tomorrow.
For a small digression, one might look at a map of Russia. The immediate reaction is, "Wow, big country." When I was very young and playing big boy games, I had the same view. Not so, a far senior colleague said to me, "big land mass, no people. They all live in an area that's pretty compressed, and there's only 150,000,000. They wouldn't last long and they know it." And that's what kept us alive throughout the Cold War.
Putin probably wouldn't mind another Cold War if he could fight it on his terms. Problem for me is time is against him and he knows it. The Leader and the EU started talking sanctions today; Putin could deal with those. They are weak and he preys on weak; what he cannot accept is a serious set-back for that would probably mark the end internally. The west has about a week or two to convince themselves that they are serious, but once again there is a depressing lack of leadership. I'm not comfortable, not comfortable at all.
Back to basics tomorrow.
Thursday, March 6, 2014
HITHER AND YON
First, the financial news from Over There. Sr. Draghi allowed the discount rate at the ECB to remain at 1/% whilst announcing the rock solid stability and strength of the Euro. Huh. He also suggested that Over There's inflation rate of 1% was dangerously low. Huh. Now I am generally a fan of Sr. Draghi but like all other central bankers he is beginning to fall into the trap of making grand announcements which, while often contradictory, are almost all unintelligible or self-evident; nothing in between. The fact is the Euro economy across the board stinks and isn't going to be helped by the little dust-up in the Crimea which takes us to our next subject, the international politics Over There.
A couple of days ago, our friends, particularly Angie, issued a stunning rebuke to The Leader in his call for sanctions against the Russians. Now, why The Leader would be dumb enough to ask for such concerted action without knowing before hand that it would be forthcoming is a different story, but there one had it and to clear up the confusion, The Leader went on some political speaking tour Somewhere in America.
The Euros consulted. It would appear that someone had the bright idea that dissing POTUS might not have been the smartest thing to do despite the fact that he has a disability factor which is off the charts and furthermore, as the Poles and no doubt the Baltic states pointed out, many of the same factors which existed in the Ukraine exist in their own countries and Putin might get other ideas given how good this is working out, in which case Angie, schatzi, let's not forget that we are in NATO with the U.S. and there is this Article 5 thingie. Next thing you know, the U.S. announces a set of sanctions against Russia that don't amount to very much but at least it is not pure blabber Then so does the EU. But they are a different set of sanctions! And they are even more meaningless! And finally,they announce the intention of granting relief to the extent of 15 billion Euros, desperately needed by the Ukraine, which for all practical purposes could be best delivered thru a cheque to the order of Gazprom as suggested in a dark, viciously funny piece in the FT today by a guy named Shramsley. Read it.
While all this was going on, this new phony parliament in the Crimea announced its intention to join Russia and scheduled March 15 as a referendum date to decide the issue. So there we have it; Vlad wants the Crimea and will get it. There's no pulling back, no graceful exit, no negotiated compromise. The Leader spoke again with him today and apparently got stiffed. There is no way of denying that this development is a grave one and one which will have not only immediate impact but repercussions for many years. The scary part is everyone seems to be winging it with no strategy in place due to a complete lack of game-planning on the chance of this occurring. I find that hard to believe and impossible to accept but there we are. We'll be back tomorrow, with a few prayers thrown in between now and then.
While all this was going on, this new phony parliament in the Crimea announced its intention to join Russia and scheduled March 15 as a referendum date to decide the issue. So there we have it; Vlad wants the Crimea and will get it. There's no pulling back, no graceful exit, no negotiated compromise. The Leader spoke again with him today and apparently got stiffed. There is no way of denying that this development is a grave one and one which will have not only immediate impact but repercussions for many years. The scary part is everyone seems to be winging it with no strategy in place due to a complete lack of game-planning on the chance of this occurring. I find that hard to believe and impossible to accept but there we are. We'll be back tomorrow, with a few prayers thrown in between now and then.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
OH, BOTHER
I think I'll go out and play with Tigger in the 100 acre wood…oh wait, I can't do that it's too damn cold. Fact is I have no idea what to write about which is almost unheard of, but this Ukraine situation overhangs everything. It's kind of surreal out there with nobody really talking about it and yet is is on everyone's mind. The other thing is you can't really get a handle on what it is that people are thinking. For example, today the equity markets were weak but so were bonds with the 10 year well-above 2.70% for most of the day only to slide back to the figure at the end. I think what this is telling us is that no one is sure as to how to read the situation and especially the maker of the feast, Mr. Putin.
Angie thinks he's nuts; maybe she's right. Then again, I think he knows exactly what he is doing and is probably delighted that we are discussing his mental state. The Leader also appears to be clueless while the politicos rant and rave as to how much fault to assign to the Administration. even in left-leaning circles there seems to be the willingness to assign quite a bit in the running of our foreign policy which might indicate the first break in the grid lock that has been Washington. What a country. The thing that gets me, however, is how the hell did this come as such a surprise. Like, Hello? I kinda thought the spooks were supposed to be all over something like this but from where I sit in the fly-over zone, Putin's actions indeed look as though they came as a surprise. Perhaps we might start thinking about the reset button being shipped over to Langley or into the office of the NSA 'cause we are on the back end of the news cycle.
In the middle of all this The Leader's budget was brought front and center with….barely a murmur. Everyone in town knows it is not serious, designed to make political points and one which neither side expects it to be debated much less passed which is just fine with them. After all, it is the most important by-election in years. We are in more disarray than I have ever seen in an increasingly long life and the middle of it all, this morning comes the news that Leon Black of Apollo took home $565 million last year. Now as far as I am concerned, Mr Black can take home a billion but can it be possible that this administration can talk about income inequality and job creation in the terms of a rise in the minimum wage and higher taxes in the face of a number like this which, to any sane person, seems to scream out that something is seriously wrong structurally? To top it off, one of Mr. Black's contemporaries was quite openly talking about thanking Ben Bernanke publicly. Think maybe we got something wrong? They all are big contributors to the party of The Leader by the way, and they did it all with leverage i.e. somebody else's money I guess in accordance with the Fed's dual mandate. …I must stop. Ah, hell. This is what happens when I don't have anything to write about.
Angie thinks he's nuts; maybe she's right. Then again, I think he knows exactly what he is doing and is probably delighted that we are discussing his mental state. The Leader also appears to be clueless while the politicos rant and rave as to how much fault to assign to the Administration. even in left-leaning circles there seems to be the willingness to assign quite a bit in the running of our foreign policy which might indicate the first break in the grid lock that has been Washington. What a country. The thing that gets me, however, is how the hell did this come as such a surprise. Like, Hello? I kinda thought the spooks were supposed to be all over something like this but from where I sit in the fly-over zone, Putin's actions indeed look as though they came as a surprise. Perhaps we might start thinking about the reset button being shipped over to Langley or into the office of the NSA 'cause we are on the back end of the news cycle.
In the middle of all this The Leader's budget was brought front and center with….barely a murmur. Everyone in town knows it is not serious, designed to make political points and one which neither side expects it to be debated much less passed which is just fine with them. After all, it is the most important by-election in years. We are in more disarray than I have ever seen in an increasingly long life and the middle of it all, this morning comes the news that Leon Black of Apollo took home $565 million last year. Now as far as I am concerned, Mr Black can take home a billion but can it be possible that this administration can talk about income inequality and job creation in the terms of a rise in the minimum wage and higher taxes in the face of a number like this which, to any sane person, seems to scream out that something is seriously wrong structurally? To top it off, one of Mr. Black's contemporaries was quite openly talking about thanking Ben Bernanke publicly. Think maybe we got something wrong? They all are big contributors to the party of The Leader by the way, and they did it all with leverage i.e. somebody else's money I guess in accordance with the Fed's dual mandate. …I must stop. Ah, hell. This is what happens when I don't have anything to write about.
Labels:
Federal Reserve.,
Leon Black,
Obama,
Putin,
Ukraine
Monday, March 3, 2014
CHINA
Given what's going on in Europe, there is a tendency I suppose simply to say, "who cares," and move on to the deteriorating situation which seems to be playing out just as predicted. But in the long run, how China turns out in both the near and short term will be more important, unless Putin, about whom Angie today questioned his sanity, blows up the whole world.
China looms larger today than even a few weeks ago because the Ukraine situation is going to put even a further damper on European growth which has not been looking good since the start of the year. China is clearly going to slow but probably not come anywhere near stopping. What is happening there, in my opinion, is more political and economic with Xi recognizing the need to consolidate power as a means by which he can tackle the two biggest problems facing the economy which are a monstrous culture of corruption at every level and a serious and growing problem with the financial sector which is overextended to a remarkable degree and undercapitalized to the extent that many institutions are de facto bankrupt and must be wound down. The massive real estate bubble is the magnification of this which will create a rationing of credit in the manufacturing and retail sectors which, too, are undercapitalized.
What has been a surprise, however, is the unbridled policy of currency devaluation which we have witnessed, far different than the subversive approach which has always marked Chinese practice as if they are saying, "we're devaluing, what are you going to do about it?" Apparently not much if the last month is any indication. Xi's consolidation and it's consequences are to be balanced by export earnings which is about the last thing the Western countries wanted to hear.
The approach is, of course, another confirmation of the most unfortunate refrain heard in the foreign policy halls of power that Xi is just another chief executive who has absolutely no respect for The Leader and considers him easily ignored. It also relaxes his dealings with the PLA who will be hurt by Xi's reforms in their domestic holdings by allowing them to play fast and loose with their newly acquired toys in thoughts of expansion in Asia. I find it simply remarkable that the "pivot towards Asia" which clearly provoked the Chinese leadership was followed just last week by the announcement of plans for a large cut in military spending just as China ramps up the same. This administration's view of the world of foreign policy and indeed of the world itself, is self-created, colliding only occasionally with the reality that by that time has eclipsed The Leader's view of the world. China is of course watching the developments in Europe and her future actions may…and I say may…be influenced by their outcome. Risk is there but as opposed to just a few short weeks ago, it may be more political than financial as advantage is taken to fill the vacuum which the U.S. is apparently creating. It's not a pretty sight; let's hope it can be improved upon.
China looms larger today than even a few weeks ago because the Ukraine situation is going to put even a further damper on European growth which has not been looking good since the start of the year. China is clearly going to slow but probably not come anywhere near stopping. What is happening there, in my opinion, is more political and economic with Xi recognizing the need to consolidate power as a means by which he can tackle the two biggest problems facing the economy which are a monstrous culture of corruption at every level and a serious and growing problem with the financial sector which is overextended to a remarkable degree and undercapitalized to the extent that many institutions are de facto bankrupt and must be wound down. The massive real estate bubble is the magnification of this which will create a rationing of credit in the manufacturing and retail sectors which, too, are undercapitalized.
What has been a surprise, however, is the unbridled policy of currency devaluation which we have witnessed, far different than the subversive approach which has always marked Chinese practice as if they are saying, "we're devaluing, what are you going to do about it?" Apparently not much if the last month is any indication. Xi's consolidation and it's consequences are to be balanced by export earnings which is about the last thing the Western countries wanted to hear.
The approach is, of course, another confirmation of the most unfortunate refrain heard in the foreign policy halls of power that Xi is just another chief executive who has absolutely no respect for The Leader and considers him easily ignored. It also relaxes his dealings with the PLA who will be hurt by Xi's reforms in their domestic holdings by allowing them to play fast and loose with their newly acquired toys in thoughts of expansion in Asia. I find it simply remarkable that the "pivot towards Asia" which clearly provoked the Chinese leadership was followed just last week by the announcement of plans for a large cut in military spending just as China ramps up the same. This administration's view of the world of foreign policy and indeed of the world itself, is self-created, colliding only occasionally with the reality that by that time has eclipsed The Leader's view of the world. China is of course watching the developments in Europe and her future actions may…and I say may…be influenced by their outcome. Risk is there but as opposed to just a few short weeks ago, it may be more political than financial as advantage is taken to fill the vacuum which the U.S. is apparently creating. It's not a pretty sight; let's hope it can be improved upon.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
STILL B & B
For a different reason today. The GDP figure for the U.S. economy came in at a -0.1% and we we actually told this was the best negative number your could possibly get. 'It's a sucking chest wound says the doc but it's not serious." One of the reasons given for this curious opinion was that the wars we have been fighting are winding down. Translation: We can always start another war? Another reason was government spending was down 22% Translation: We know how to spend money in the government. Hell, we can hire a million people to dig holes and another million to fill them up. Or we can start another war...can't we? Inventories were down. Translation: What the hell does that mean? People were purchasing things? In case you missed it guys Hanukkah fell in this quarter. I even heard that we might still have Christmas. Inventories always go down in the fourth quarter.
I really think that what none of the geniuses will admit is that this makes it harder for the Fed to take the punch bowl away and from where I sit this incredible stock market rally is entirely central bank led. Then again, Apple that makes more money than anyone has ever seen and seems to holds on to all of it is in the crapper on the street and Amazon which makes no money at all is loved by all. At least there is consistency out there, at least in my eyes as either everything is upside down or I'm standing on my head. To be honest, I'm not the least bit sure. I guess we'll just have to wait 3 months to confirm the direction this is taking...of course by that time we will be in the middle of a God-awful budget fight which will be used as an excuse by all sides in explaining/defending/promoting their respective positions on wither the economy. Can't wait
Anyway, I'm glad I have this to write about because there aint nothin' of interest out there. It has been remarkably quiet with the battle over anti gun legislation overtaking everything in the Congress. Over there, not much is new except that Euroland just may have dodged a bullet in regard to Cyprus. As suggested almost to the point of a prediction, Russia announced the other day that it would assist in any Cypriot bail-out. Guess the Oligarchs lined up outside Putin's office and said something to the effect, " That's our money down there. Fix this thing or else." With those kind of numbers in that kind of country not even Putin is entirely in the clear. Old Damocles found that out a couple of years ago. Some people just never learn.
I really think that what none of the geniuses will admit is that this makes it harder for the Fed to take the punch bowl away and from where I sit this incredible stock market rally is entirely central bank led. Then again, Apple that makes more money than anyone has ever seen and seems to holds on to all of it is in the crapper on the street and Amazon which makes no money at all is loved by all. At least there is consistency out there, at least in my eyes as either everything is upside down or I'm standing on my head. To be honest, I'm not the least bit sure. I guess we'll just have to wait 3 months to confirm the direction this is taking...of course by that time we will be in the middle of a God-awful budget fight which will be used as an excuse by all sides in explaining/defending/promoting their respective positions on wither the economy. Can't wait
Anyway, I'm glad I have this to write about because there aint nothin' of interest out there. It has been remarkably quiet with the battle over anti gun legislation overtaking everything in the Congress. Over there, not much is new except that Euroland just may have dodged a bullet in regard to Cyprus. As suggested almost to the point of a prediction, Russia announced the other day that it would assist in any Cypriot bail-out. Guess the Oligarchs lined up outside Putin's office and said something to the effect, " That's our money down there. Fix this thing or else." With those kind of numbers in that kind of country not even Putin is entirely in the clear. Old Damocles found that out a couple of years ago. Some people just never learn.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
A NEW DAY DAWNING?
Old Vlad Putin announced today that the U.S. is a "parasite nation" in his call for a new world order and reserve currency. Now why anyone would pay attention to a murdering, Moscow Center Thug like Putin except perhaps to read his obituary is more than I can fathom but it did make a headline or two this morning and unfortunately it is a sign of how far the standing of the U.S. has fallen in the eyes of the worlWell, the Senate by a rather wide vote approved the increase in the debt ceiling and the legislation was signed by The Leader around noon time. Never missing a beat, The Leader signaled the REAL start of the 2012 campaign by calling for higher taxes on the "rich" and on corporations which produced, among the cheers of the left, an immediate drop in the Dow of about 200 points. The pitter-patter of little feet that you hear is the U.S. investor in full retreat...he's movin' on guys and gals and may be away for a while.
That may seem strange to some of you who looking at this debt deal which is being touted as a deficit reducer, but it is not because despite all the talk, if left unattended, this agreement will do nothing at all to reduce the deficit because in Washington D.C. more is counted as less and less produces more. Sound strange? It is. Here's why.
Let's say you are the owner of a big bank...let's call it...oh, I don't know, HSBC for want of a better name. Things haven't been great in the banking business lately and they don't look like they are going to improve any time soon. So here you are, in the middle of drawing up your plans/budget for the next few years when one of your finance guys comes in and tells you that you're not going to have enough revenue to cover the expenses you have budgeted much less make a profit and furthermore, there doesn't really seem to be any way to improve that revenue stream enough to make a real difference. What to do? Well as a businessman you know the answer: cut expenses and do it quickly. So you sell assets, freeze salaries, reduce your workforce by 30,000 people and a whole bunch of other really nasty things that will not make you any friends but must be done. Now suppose you run the United States. What do you do?
You can't do a damn thing. The first thing you discover is that you have no control over the actual cost of the government because rather than a budgetary process that allows you to set expenses that's already been done for you. Every single department in your government expenses grow every year..by law...and every time they grow that sets what is known as a new "baseline" from which the calculation for the growth of the next year's expenses is calculated. So the only thing over which you have any real control is revenue, which in the government is known as taxes, and...well...unless you have control of both houses ytou know how much control you have over that.
But wait, it gets better. At HSBC you can actually spend less next year than this year but as the head of the government you really can't because of the automatic growth factor. All you can do is agree not to spend any more than the automatic increase but here you get a break because if someone is mean enough to suggest that perhaps you shouldn't spend any more money the accounting rules under which you operate allow you to claim that you have actually reduced the size of the deficit simply by holding down the amount of spending above the baseline even though the spending grows geometrically every year and unless you grow revenues (more taxes but remember, more taxes=less growth and less growth=lower taxes) your deficit grows as well. Then there's the entitlements which can't be touched at all in the budgeting process and have their own built in multipliers, but must be attacked by joint resolutions in Congress. This was not done in today's deal. In short, this deficit-cutting deal signed today actually means the nation's debt will increase by around $10 trillion over the next ten years, all things being equal.
Screwed up, aren't we and that's just a brief and not terribly detailed description of how things work around here. Can it be fixed? Yep. The first thing has to be the accounting which means removing the automatic rise in the base line and get back to real budgeting. Secondly, the entitlements must be changed. Thirdly, the tax code must be scrapped and a flat, broad-based tax, free of loop-hole, deductions, deletions and special exemptions along with lower tax rates across the board must be enacted. From that, we get real growth, and finally insanity such as Dodd/Frank and the plethora of growth-killing regulations that have come out of this administration must be repealed. Mr. Putin is incorrect, we are not a parasite, but we may well be a snake that is eating it's tail. Not a pretty sight, that. The dawn comes up like thunder these days. Think of what is across the Bay.
That may seem strange to some of you who looking at this debt deal which is being touted as a deficit reducer, but it is not because despite all the talk, if left unattended, this agreement will do nothing at all to reduce the deficit because in Washington D.C. more is counted as less and less produces more. Sound strange? It is. Here's why.
Let's say you are the owner of a big bank...let's call it...oh, I don't know, HSBC for want of a better name. Things haven't been great in the banking business lately and they don't look like they are going to improve any time soon. So here you are, in the middle of drawing up your plans/budget for the next few years when one of your finance guys comes in and tells you that you're not going to have enough revenue to cover the expenses you have budgeted much less make a profit and furthermore, there doesn't really seem to be any way to improve that revenue stream enough to make a real difference. What to do? Well as a businessman you know the answer: cut expenses and do it quickly. So you sell assets, freeze salaries, reduce your workforce by 30,000 people and a whole bunch of other really nasty things that will not make you any friends but must be done. Now suppose you run the United States. What do you do?
You can't do a damn thing. The first thing you discover is that you have no control over the actual cost of the government because rather than a budgetary process that allows you to set expenses that's already been done for you. Every single department in your government expenses grow every year..by law...and every time they grow that sets what is known as a new "baseline" from which the calculation for the growth of the next year's expenses is calculated. So the only thing over which you have any real control is revenue, which in the government is known as taxes, and...well...unless you have control of both houses ytou know how much control you have over that.
But wait, it gets better. At HSBC you can actually spend less next year than this year but as the head of the government you really can't because of the automatic growth factor. All you can do is agree not to spend any more than the automatic increase but here you get a break because if someone is mean enough to suggest that perhaps you shouldn't spend any more money the accounting rules under which you operate allow you to claim that you have actually reduced the size of the deficit simply by holding down the amount of spending above the baseline even though the spending grows geometrically every year and unless you grow revenues (more taxes but remember, more taxes=less growth and less growth=lower taxes) your deficit grows as well. Then there's the entitlements which can't be touched at all in the budgeting process and have their own built in multipliers, but must be attacked by joint resolutions in Congress. This was not done in today's deal. In short, this deficit-cutting deal signed today actually means the nation's debt will increase by around $10 trillion over the next ten years, all things being equal.
Screwed up, aren't we and that's just a brief and not terribly detailed description of how things work around here. Can it be fixed? Yep. The first thing has to be the accounting which means removing the automatic rise in the base line and get back to real budgeting. Secondly, the entitlements must be changed. Thirdly, the tax code must be scrapped and a flat, broad-based tax, free of loop-hole, deductions, deletions and special exemptions along with lower tax rates across the board must be enacted. From that, we get real growth, and finally insanity such as Dodd/Frank and the plethora of growth-killing regulations that have come out of this administration must be repealed. Mr. Putin is incorrect, we are not a parasite, but we may well be a snake that is eating it's tail. Not a pretty sight, that. The dawn comes up like thunder these days. Think of what is across the Bay.
Labels:
baseline budgeting,
deficit reduction. tax code,
Kipling,
Obama,
Putin
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