Wednesday, September 5, 2012

THE NIGHT BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY

There really isn't any reason to speculate or comments on the events of today.  There were none.  Nevertheless, the sense of anticipation is a heavy overlay on markets both here and over there.  Tomorrow is the ECB meeting which some have referred to as the encapsulated future of Euroland.  Will Monti pull it off or not.  Will he stand publicly for the unlimited funding for national fiscal deficits or will he once again disappoint with another series of baby steps on the way to salvation?  He has hinted at a robust program at least for the short term but has also indicated that it would be heavily laden with conditionality which I suspect--given the political realities of Euroland--will not be well received.  One would be wise to keep in mind that any plan could be wrecked next week by the German Constitutional Court's ruling on the two stability plans which, if found illegal, could demolish the Euro debt strategy in one swell foop.  I'm betting that will not happen and so tomorrow is indeed the day.

Friday on the other hand could well be the day the American election is decided.  Friday is the jobs number.  Word out of Washington already has it being talked down to around 125,000 from the previous 166,000 of August.  Any upside, unless it is a blow-out, will have little effect but a bad number, anything below 100,000 just might decide the election as it will undoubtedly overwhelm any positive reporting coming out of North Carolina.  Either way, the number will be questioned and debated.   Two really important days.

If that wasn't enough, the World Champion G-Men open at home tonight against Dallas.  This is almost too much to fathom for my addled mind and possibly life-threatening from a cardiac standpoint.  All this in a lifetime.  I'll be back to report on it all tomorrow.

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