What a difference a day makes. A day ago it was all quiet on the San Juan front. Today, there isn't a seat on a plane to be had; they're all filled with lawyers heading down to sue somebody...ANYBODY...now that Puerto Rico has essentially defaulted. Where do we go from here? Beats me. I really haven't a clue but I have an uncomfortable feeling about this unless somebody decides that this situation requires a real SOB and I'm the guy for the job. What this really represents is the biggest muni default in history and dare I point out that this market has been almost oblivious to what, in other markets in other geographic locations would produce total panic; try Illinois. Yeah I know, states cannot go bankrupt. Walter Wriston also told us countries don't go broke. He was right, but they don't pay you back either. May I suggest that those charged with the responsibility of keeping track of these things, keep track of this thing. Benign neglect may be the absolute wrong way to go.
Then of course we always have The Donald. Out of nowhere he drops the "break up the banks bomb" just when everybody else in D.C. are beginning to realize that to bring back Glass Stegall is perhaps not a good idea. Why? Don't have an answer for that one either except that the guy likes to mess with peoples' minds. Not to worry however. Not going to happen. Certainly not after Goldman Sachs dropped a bomb in setting up a real, live, functioning commercial bank. Do I mean to imply that Goldie, with Big Gary and the Munchkin occupying the catbird seats might exert some undo influence on this administration. I would NEVER do that...but others might. And then there is the impending replacement of the Comptroller of the Currency, an Il Duce guy with...ready for it...the Munchkin's former go to guy at the busted bank! And to think we thought the Clintons were a bit...ah...inbred? Funny thing is what I suspect the difference might be; these guys already have so damn much money this kind of cronyism is probably considered as being simple efficiency in producing ego fulfillment. The may also be on the right track. Stupid they are not.
Big debate in France tonight and again I don't know what's going on in so far as the ratings or post debate commentary, but the transcript is not for small children. They really went after each other. Rumor has it that Le Pen was creeping up in the polls but that may be a bit of bet hedging.
We're off to Virginia for a long weekend and back of Tuesday with hopefully a new Pad or what ever they are called these days. Don't expect anything before Tuesday unless something really exciting happens...like Hillary discovering that more reasons for her defeat.
Have a good weekend.
Showing posts with label French elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label French elections. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 3, 2017
Friday, April 21, 2017
DUMBEST MOVE OF THE WEEK
By me. Not unusual mind you but this is a doozy. Ready for it? OK. Stanley Fisher was interviewed today on CNBC by America's newest financial heart throb, Sarah Eisen. Did a good Job. Stan was all smiles. Gave her a a beaut when questioned about Dodd/Frank. Said the most important thing with which one shouldn't mess was the Living Will. Wrong, Stan, very wrong.
Now to call Stanley Fisher wrong is generally unwise; for me to do it is downright dumb. Not in that league but Stan is wrong, wrong, wrong and because when Stanley Fisher speaks people listen I think it's important for the dissenting view--even from the peanut gallery-- to be heard. Stan, if J.P. Morgan fails, thee is no living will devised by mere mortals that will make a damn bit of difference, so let's stop kidding ourselves. Five seconds after the event it will be every man for himself--the hell with the women and children--and the only thing that stops it is the Fed...that's you Stan...telling everybody that they are covered. Sorry, but that's the real world inhabited by real people who get scared and act out of pure self-preservation. Unfortunately, there are too many recent examples of expectations based on long-held beliefs and even laws being dashed. I give you the bond holders of General Motors who are still trying to figure out what happened (me too). A living will? Surely you jest.
So there you are Stan, you might want to rethink this. If you need any help you know how to get in touch. Always glad to lend a hand to the smartest guy in the room.
Round one of the French elections is on Sunday in the shadow of the awful terrorist act of Wednesday. The importance of the ultimate result cannot be overstated. Sunday's results may provide a clue to the final event. For the fate of the EU it will be a very long day.
Finally, to close with a bit of wisdom, the Venezuelan situation is considerably more troublesome than the disaster portrayed on television. A few weeks ago Venezuelan military units crossed the Colombian border and occupied a border station for a number of days. Colombia wisely did not react and the Zulus withdrew. Start a war? Sure, why not? What do you have to lose and besides it gets everybody refocused. This could get truly awful.
Back next week
Now to call Stanley Fisher wrong is generally unwise; for me to do it is downright dumb. Not in that league but Stan is wrong, wrong, wrong and because when Stanley Fisher speaks people listen I think it's important for the dissenting view--even from the peanut gallery-- to be heard. Stan, if J.P. Morgan fails, thee is no living will devised by mere mortals that will make a damn bit of difference, so let's stop kidding ourselves. Five seconds after the event it will be every man for himself--the hell with the women and children--and the only thing that stops it is the Fed...that's you Stan...telling everybody that they are covered. Sorry, but that's the real world inhabited by real people who get scared and act out of pure self-preservation. Unfortunately, there are too many recent examples of expectations based on long-held beliefs and even laws being dashed. I give you the bond holders of General Motors who are still trying to figure out what happened (me too). A living will? Surely you jest.
So there you are Stan, you might want to rethink this. If you need any help you know how to get in touch. Always glad to lend a hand to the smartest guy in the room.
Round one of the French elections is on Sunday in the shadow of the awful terrorist act of Wednesday. The importance of the ultimate result cannot be overstated. Sunday's results may provide a clue to the final event. For the fate of the EU it will be a very long day.
Finally, to close with a bit of wisdom, the Venezuelan situation is considerably more troublesome than the disaster portrayed on television. A few weeks ago Venezuelan military units crossed the Colombian border and occupied a border station for a number of days. Colombia wisely did not react and the Zulus withdrew. Start a war? Sure, why not? What do you have to lose and besides it gets everybody refocused. This could get truly awful.
Back next week
Monday, June 18, 2012
OH MY GOODNESS!
I missed it. Thank you, Carter, thank you, thank you, thank you for pointing out that Morgan Stanley is about to get downgraded. I should be shot. An informed, participating audience is such a wonderful thing. So thank you Carter, and do me a favor would you? Don't be like me. Get a life.
And now on to important matters. New Democracy won as predicted, they will probably be able to form a government and the first thing they will do is ask for a renegotiation of the bail-out. Par for the course. Markets took a deep breath...and did nothing. Nothing has changed and nothing will until the movers and shakers wind their way back from Los Cabos. That will be a week. Europe will then be into the knock-out phase of the European Cup so there goes another 10 days and not much happens in July in order for people to rest up for August when all of Euroland goes on holiday.
The BIG election, however, was in France where M. Hollande won an absolute majority in congress. The battle may be joined between the two biggest continental powers with Greece being able to play one off against the other and the Italians who invented this sort of thing certain to do the same when the time comes. By the by, still not a word from Massimo but I Azzuri went through 2-nil over Ireland today so I suspect he will have nothing better to do than talk to me.
The Leader and President Calderon of Mexico held a joint press conference today in Los Cabos. For those of you not following American politics, The Leader last Friday issued an executive order to the homeland security guys NOT to deport any person who had been transported to this country illegally before the age of 16 by his or her parents. Now the nation's laws say that they are to be deported and aside from the morality involved in the issue, The Leader at one point took an oath to "enforce the laws of the United States," which, from time to time when politically convenient, he ignores. Awkward thing our Constitution. Pres. Claderon did him one better: he THANKED The Leader for not transporting his fellow citizens back to his and their home country. Doesn't want them I guess. Is it just me? Carter?
And now on to important matters. New Democracy won as predicted, they will probably be able to form a government and the first thing they will do is ask for a renegotiation of the bail-out. Par for the course. Markets took a deep breath...and did nothing. Nothing has changed and nothing will until the movers and shakers wind their way back from Los Cabos. That will be a week. Europe will then be into the knock-out phase of the European Cup so there goes another 10 days and not much happens in July in order for people to rest up for August when all of Euroland goes on holiday.
The BIG election, however, was in France where M. Hollande won an absolute majority in congress. The battle may be joined between the two biggest continental powers with Greece being able to play one off against the other and the Italians who invented this sort of thing certain to do the same when the time comes. By the by, still not a word from Massimo but I Azzuri went through 2-nil over Ireland today so I suspect he will have nothing better to do than talk to me.
The Leader and President Calderon of Mexico held a joint press conference today in Los Cabos. For those of you not following American politics, The Leader last Friday issued an executive order to the homeland security guys NOT to deport any person who had been transported to this country illegally before the age of 16 by his or her parents. Now the nation's laws say that they are to be deported and aside from the morality involved in the issue, The Leader at one point took an oath to "enforce the laws of the United States," which, from time to time when politically convenient, he ignores. Awkward thing our Constitution. Pres. Claderon did him one better: he THANKED The Leader for not transporting his fellow citizens back to his and their home country. Doesn't want them I guess. Is it just me? Carter?
Friday, May 4, 2012
THE WEEKEND COMETH
...and it will be one of total politics except for one glorious interlude. The jobs report today was awful, and while the unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1% that was only because of the fact that over half a million either left the job market or stopped looking for work. The administration tried to hype the headline number but nobody was buying it and every market crashed including oil futures which fell four bucks to under $100. Every talking head with an access to a microphone will be fighting for air time to tell us what this really means for the economy and for The Leader's re-election plans. The consus will be a grudging "not good" but rays of sunshine admid the clouds will be found. In short, why listen.
Not so in Euroland, however, as the French will undoubtably choose a new president and the Greeks...well...the Greeks will choose someone or many ones leading to outbreaks of street demonstrations signifying...absolutely nothing as far as Euroland is concerned. Everyone realizes Greece is gone and the only thing at stake is whether ther is a majority that pulls the country out right now or do we have to wait for another round of elections later in the year; I'm in the latter camp on this one. Greeks are very good at theater and tragedies. Ever hear the one about the Greek who offs his old man, marries his mother...you did, eh. Sorry.
France is another matter. There's a bet going about as to how Hollande will approach the country in his victory speech: fire and brimstone Euro leftist or the conciliator, "Let us together build a New France..." I'm in the minority but I think he will take the latter approach and well he might because markets are spooked enough as is. For better or worse Frace is the keystone; oh Germany is the most powerful and important but if France chooses the hard socialist road it will be almost impossible to reach consensus within the union on just about anything and Fin as we always saw in the old black and whites. The openings on Monday bear watching. The results are already priced in but how the winner reacts is a game-changer.
Fortunately, amidst all this is a beacon of sanity shining from northwest London. The FA Cup, Liverpool vs. Chelsea two storied clubs of English football. It was an easy walk to Stanford Bridge from where I lived years ago but White Hart Lane was my Ground. So, no dog in this fight but one can't help but wish that Liverpool, with all the tradition and support base not to mention the wonderful Dalglish, pacing the touch line on the pitch where he used to roam in front of the Kop, finds the route to victory. Alas, I'm afraid it is not to be. Chelsea, 3-1. You'll never walk alone old sons.
Not so in Euroland, however, as the French will undoubtably choose a new president and the Greeks...well...the Greeks will choose someone or many ones leading to outbreaks of street demonstrations signifying...absolutely nothing as far as Euroland is concerned. Everyone realizes Greece is gone and the only thing at stake is whether ther is a majority that pulls the country out right now or do we have to wait for another round of elections later in the year; I'm in the latter camp on this one. Greeks are very good at theater and tragedies. Ever hear the one about the Greek who offs his old man, marries his mother...you did, eh. Sorry.
France is another matter. There's a bet going about as to how Hollande will approach the country in his victory speech: fire and brimstone Euro leftist or the conciliator, "Let us together build a New France..." I'm in the minority but I think he will take the latter approach and well he might because markets are spooked enough as is. For better or worse Frace is the keystone; oh Germany is the most powerful and important but if France chooses the hard socialist road it will be almost impossible to reach consensus within the union on just about anything and Fin as we always saw in the old black and whites. The openings on Monday bear watching. The results are already priced in but how the winner reacts is a game-changer.
Fortunately, amidst all this is a beacon of sanity shining from northwest London. The FA Cup, Liverpool vs. Chelsea two storied clubs of English football. It was an easy walk to Stanford Bridge from where I lived years ago but White Hart Lane was my Ground. So, no dog in this fight but one can't help but wish that Liverpool, with all the tradition and support base not to mention the wonderful Dalglish, pacing the touch line on the pitch where he used to roam in front of the Kop, finds the route to victory. Alas, I'm afraid it is not to be. Chelsea, 3-1. You'll never walk alone old sons.
Monday, April 23, 2012
A CHANGE IN PROVIDERS
Ever switch internet providers? It's a nightmare. This has been going on for three days and I think it's finally done. In the mean time all hell has broken loose in Euroland on the political fronts and the ramifications are not only unknown but impossible to guess.
As expected, Sarkozy lost in the first round to the socialist candidate, Hollande, but by a smaller margin that many--including yours truly--believed would be the case. Finishing a very strong third was the candidate of the far right, Mme. Le Pen which was another surprise to all. Sarkozy and Hollande will have a run-off in two weeks and Hollande willwin unless...and it a BIG unless...Sarkozy makes a BIG turn to the right and attracts almost all of Le Pen's support. It's going to be close in any respect. Of course whoever wins will probably not get a majority in the legislature and it is there that the knife fighting will be most severe.
While all this was going on the government fell in the Netherlands as a result of the failure of one party in the right wing coalition refusing to agree to the budget limitations imposed on the member states by the agreement in Brussels a month or so ago. And while all of this was going on 90,000 turned out in the streets in Prague to protest the government's austerity plan. The usual round of protests, mini-riots and ministerial screaming present in Greece, Spain and to a lesser extent, Italy got moved to the 3rd page of the second section. Austerity is not a winning political strategy which of course raises the question, what is?
The real loser at this point in time is Frau Merkel who in addition to probably losing the other half of the tag-team that has been running Euroland for the past year now has no one at the helm of her most fervent supporter in the northern coalition. The collapse of the Dutchies was a tremendous shock and leaves the poor, old girl all alone on an island of fiscal conservatism which is surely an exposed place to be except for the fact that on the island she has all the money in Euroland...hard money that is. About the only good thing to come out of the weekend is the fact that Greece, Portugal and for a period of time, even Spain are off the front pages. Of course the Brits are no doubt laughing their bums off at this turn of events but they are also favored with an exchange rate that's higher than it has been in years which is not exactly prime for them. For a Euro-skeptic like me it's really fun to watch.
Meanwhile, just a bit west of Euroland in the wilderness know as Washington, D.C., Mme. Legarde got herself a whole new bunch of money with which to build firewalls around some thing in some place, but nobody was really sure who or where much less how. She also caught a ration of do-do
from the likes of Brazil and that mob as to why they deserve more and bigger seats at the table. Of course NO ONE in ruling coalition wants that to happen so it will not. Not even The Leader is going to push on the end of that rope which was made qiute clear by the United States along with Canada refusing to pony up new capital for the Fund stating that Euroland had enough money to solve it's own problems. Of course the markets opened down and stayed that was over "concerns" regarding Europe. Concerns. The place is in the tank. Now if I can just keep this provider, providing...
As expected, Sarkozy lost in the first round to the socialist candidate, Hollande, but by a smaller margin that many--including yours truly--believed would be the case. Finishing a very strong third was the candidate of the far right, Mme. Le Pen which was another surprise to all. Sarkozy and Hollande will have a run-off in two weeks and Hollande willwin unless...and it a BIG unless...Sarkozy makes a BIG turn to the right and attracts almost all of Le Pen's support. It's going to be close in any respect. Of course whoever wins will probably not get a majority in the legislature and it is there that the knife fighting will be most severe.
While all this was going on the government fell in the Netherlands as a result of the failure of one party in the right wing coalition refusing to agree to the budget limitations imposed on the member states by the agreement in Brussels a month or so ago. And while all of this was going on 90,000 turned out in the streets in Prague to protest the government's austerity plan. The usual round of protests, mini-riots and ministerial screaming present in Greece, Spain and to a lesser extent, Italy got moved to the 3rd page of the second section. Austerity is not a winning political strategy which of course raises the question, what is?
The real loser at this point in time is Frau Merkel who in addition to probably losing the other half of the tag-team that has been running Euroland for the past year now has no one at the helm of her most fervent supporter in the northern coalition. The collapse of the Dutchies was a tremendous shock and leaves the poor, old girl all alone on an island of fiscal conservatism which is surely an exposed place to be except for the fact that on the island she has all the money in Euroland...hard money that is. About the only good thing to come out of the weekend is the fact that Greece, Portugal and for a period of time, even Spain are off the front pages. Of course the Brits are no doubt laughing their bums off at this turn of events but they are also favored with an exchange rate that's higher than it has been in years which is not exactly prime for them. For a Euro-skeptic like me it's really fun to watch.
Meanwhile, just a bit west of Euroland in the wilderness know as Washington, D.C., Mme. Legarde got herself a whole new bunch of money with which to build firewalls around some thing in some place, but nobody was really sure who or where much less how. She also caught a ration of do-do
from the likes of Brazil and that mob as to why they deserve more and bigger seats at the table. Of course NO ONE in ruling coalition wants that to happen so it will not. Not even The Leader is going to push on the end of that rope which was made qiute clear by the United States along with Canada refusing to pony up new capital for the Fund stating that Euroland had enough money to solve it's own problems. Of course the markets opened down and stayed that was over "concerns" regarding Europe. Concerns. The place is in the tank. Now if I can just keep this provider, providing...
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