If you are wondering why there are two postings today the answer is that Monday's was published today which explains why there was no posting yesterday. I haven't the slightest idea why. Anyway, if you think a foot of driving snow, haik rain wind and cold are fun, they are not. But we made it and away we go.
Three days into the sequester and it becomes more and more apparent that any effect will pretty much be the result of what scare tactics the administration will attempt to influence the ongoing negotiations with the Republicans on the Hill. A sad event but at least one which is becoming more and more transparent. Despite all of this the stock market roars on fueled by gerally up beat comment s whether supported by real, solid data or not. It is clear that the real support is the now almost universal belief the the Fed is not going to pull away the punch bowl and with interest rates consigned to the cellar there are no other alternatives. If you are punter, good for you, you'be made a bomb. Of course I'm not--wrong time wrong place Charlie, that's me.
In any case, as poor but hopefully wiser, I regretfully maintain the belief that the longer this situation continues, event risk increases both in the financial sector but increasingly, in the political sector as well. Globally, we are not in a good place: the Middle East, the Koreas, Latin America now with the death of Chavez and the continuation of the conflict in the EU, speaking of which the Euro mob just decided to follow the Swiss Volk and drastically limit bankers pay to the extent of bonuses now mandated to be no more than 1x salaries. The Brits yelled foul of course but would up getting their way in regard to bank capital adequacy so how this comes out in the final copy is anyone's guess. Affecting everyone working in Euroland, Eurolandier or not, as well as those working in the foreign branches of EU banks, this is a very long reach decision. It' a different world from the one in which I grew up but it seems to me that one or two things are going to happen, the first being REALLY high salaries being paid which kind of limits efforts to control short term thinking and it becoming a recruiting bonanza for American financial houses for people willing to relocate from inside Euroland.
Admittedly, these things are hard to enforce. Back in late 1970ies when marginal taxes in the UK were up around the 100% range, subsidiaries out of range of the Inland Revenue boys found their ranks swelled with non-executive directors from the UK as a means of compensating the poor buggers who were up against that 100% rate, the UK , like most civilized countries not having a world wide reach for taxation (guess which civilized country is alone in this regard)? But of course it can be done if one is prepared to engage in such stupidity merely to score political points as the money is meaningless. And so we and Euroland appear to be prepared to walk hand in hand in search of the world of the dumb, ignoring all that might really help in an attempt to score political points. But what the hell, the indices are up, and only wrong place Charlie seems concerned. If it goes bad, we' ll blame it on him for creating negativity in the population. Sounds like a plan.
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