BEWARE OF GREEKS WITH GUARANTEES

Mr. Samaras met with Mr. Junker today.  They sat, they chatted, they dined, they spoke with the press, Mr. Samaras personally guaranteed the German debt...WHOA!  WAIT!  HE DID WHAT?

Oh, settle down, just a Greek being Greek. This whole palaver is about the can being kicked.  The fact is I don't think at this stage the Germans care very much if they get repaid or not.  I know they don't expect to be. It appears the bank exposure to Greece is pretty much out of the way (just to Greece mind you) and the state of the unon is forefront at this stage.  So here's where I get confused.  If I were a German I could care less whether Greeece stays in or drops out.  In fact, I would be looking to make it as easy for them to do it as quickly as possible.  The danger it would seem to me would be that this drags on into the year-end, the American elections will be decided with nothing but uncertainty in the future, Spain is deteriorating rapidly (Italy would be too but the markets can crush only one country at a time) and there is a tangible fear of the imminent collapse of Euroland.  If I were a German I would probably realize that would not be good for the Fatherland because even it does't not have the funds to save multiple collapses at the same time and that means Euroland ist kaput along with the Euro.  So, if I were a German I would want to end this Greek thing schnell and focus all of Europe's resources on what really counts because if I were a German if the thing falls apart and I have to go to the D-Mark, my currency soars and my export-driven economy drops like a rock.  Finis.  

But I'm not a German and that's not going to happen because even though Greece WILL default and EXIT the Union I know there is no one around to suggest it happens now guaranteeing that it occurs in the most disjointed and terrifying manner possible unless there is a dramatic shift in positions after the good folks wake up one day a discover it isn't August any more: no more sailing, sitiing on beaches or climbing mountains (Switzerland is beautiful without snow).  And since I'm not German I know what the chances are for that to happen.  Anyway, it's beautiful in the fly over zone; I think I'll sit our by the pool and walk up the sand dunes by the Big Lake.  Until September, that is.