I was so bummed yesterday I didn't even try to write. Called some good friends and asked if I was losing it. Answers ranged from "no" to "you lost it some time ago." I just can't make sense of it so I pulled out my vitamin G made by Plymouth Pharmaceutical as they have been so doing since 1751 and went to bed.
Billy the Dud spoke today which in itself is never a good thing but today it brought me out of my doldrums and filled in a blank or two. Billy's job was to contribute his two cents in the Walk back the Chairman, mantra which was predicted in this space last week, installments of which began over the weekend. Billy did it one better. Not only did he repeat the party line of the market didn't understand what Ben was saying he pretty much added don't listen to Ben anyway because he's really not running the show...at least not alone. Whet we should REALLY understand, sez Billy, is that we're going to do pretty much any damn thing we want, when we want and for as long as we want until we get the result we have been predicting. And we are going to do this depending upon OUR interpretation of the data which is presented to us. Oh, and in the mean time we're still printing.
Whilst The Dud was educating the Great Unwashed--and I mean at the exact same time, the guy who laid out the GDP growth for the last quarter as being 2.4% on an annual basis was saying, "Tic a minute on that, it was really only 1.8%." Now in a $15 trillion economy that is a rather considerable miss, but it lit a light bulb: "Self," said I, "now I get it. It's not about duty, honor country. It's not about right or wrong. It's all about testing theories and whatever the reality might be, who the hell cares...certainly not us." And so, we wind up with a bunch of theoretical economists trying to centrally manage a $15 trillion economy, most of whom have never worked at a real job in their lives and not giving a tinkers damn what they are being told. And guess what? Like the spawn of the pods that arrived from outer space in the movie classic of the same name, they're every where.
And I started feeling better. These guys have been printing money around the world and will continue to do so until the last tree on the planet has been cut down. There is no inflation (unless you live on a fixed income like me) because they tell us there is none. They can keep interest rates just where they want them to be (except for mortgage rates, those little buggers) simply by talking them down. The economy will be just fine because they say it will be, structural adjustment is a myth and as long as the stock market goes up, we're OK. AND THEY LOVE IT because it's power and for the first time in their lives (aside from grading some poor schnook's paper a "C"), they have it.
The sneaky part of this--and I haven't quite figured it out--is the manner in which people are reacting to the biggest tinker-toy economy in the history of the world. You would think people would want to hold on to something real, but Gold is down 40%. Either people have been crazy for the past ten years or they are really nuts now. Or maybe those pods contained some sort of dumb-me-down gas we knew nothing about. I'm working on it.
And so, breathing deeper and yet deeper, the DOW was way up, the ten year ticked below 2.50%, and a quiet calm was reported on the street. Mortgage rates were way up but that might be the result of every new mortgage (just about) in the country coming courtesy of Fanny or Fred...gee, how did that happen? Oh well, not to worry. But most importantly I am feeling much better about my self. There's nothing wrong with me at all. I'm just trapped inside a movie playing a bit part. Beats reality.
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