Not the Spanish banks according to Oliver Weyman. Hired by the Spanish government, the respected firm returned it's verdict last week that the capital required by the major Spanish institutions was considerably less than had been thought. Clever lads. Always give the client what he is looking for. In any case, the upward movement in Euro equities today was believed to be as a result of the favorable nature of the conclusions so I guess a bob or two was made all around.
Poor old me. As you know the value of bank capital is a concern to the regulatory world but holds little value to me so I didn't make a bean. But, I ask, if things are so much better than thought why is it that deposits continue their steady removal from Spanish banking institutions? Could it be the market has a better view of the real situation or is it that reality in the form of Oliver Weyman not yet set in? Or perhaps there are folks out there who wonder, as do I, how in the hell can one firm in a few short months complete a comprehensive review of the risk profiles of an entire country specific industry in a period when risk elements change hour to hour...not to mention the fact that no one has any idea of the methodology used to achieve this remarkable result. Ok. To be really honest I don't think that anyone other than a completely honest management can perform a stress test that means much more than a puddle of warm spit and certainly not in the time allotted. Too much data received from highly interested providers, a lack of internal knowledge of the institutions and too little time. Anyway, let's just say an upward revision of required capital in the near future will not come as a surprise and leave it at that.
Meanwhile, down amidst the wine-dark sea, things aren't looking much better; indeed, they may be looking worse with a realistic assessment of Greece's economic future given by the government and yet eVen the Germans seem convinced that they will get continued funding before the end of the year. With a dreadful prognosis for Eurozone economics it must be certainly be clear to all that Greece simply cannot make it but the hard decision is not there yet. Year end? I doubt it. Not even the Greeks are prepared to say in public that it's over for them. "If it be not now..." You know the rest.
And finally, in the past few days Frankie has presented his new budget and it's 75% top personal rate that even a number of socialists are calling nuts. The outlook for La Republique is bleak with confidence and approval ratings in the toilet but the boy has nerve. Brains, perhaps not but nerve...overflowing. And with all this the markets move ever upward; but lo! there is a hastily called meeting of ministers on Thursday of this week. With all going so swimmingly I wonder what that's all about? Think someone might ask?
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I'm still on the road bouncing all about and will be for a while. Apologies
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