THE PIT AND THE PENDULUM

 The pendulum swung back this morning and in the trading pits it was all "buy, buy, buy."  The jobs number was 168,000, far higher than expected (although the unemployed figure rose to 8.3) and that, coupled with a fall in short term Spanish yields, put a positive bias on everything right up to the close of the DOW--up 215 points.  Fundamentally of course, not a thing has changed but I guess today was a lot better than what could have happened had the number been bad.

Anyway, friend Carter had an interesting point today that we shall call the "cocked gun theory," the holder of the piece being Mario Draghi and the target, Frau Merkel.  Great theory but I'm afraid that Super Mario is playing a different game and it's called Russian Roulette.  Now "never" is a word I rarely use but I night be tempted in this instance.  The Germans will be loath to give the kind of carte blanch to the ECB that is implicit in Draghi's comments as a matter of principal but also as a matter of domestic politics.  She folds, she loses, and the most elementary emotion of any politician is to remain in place. Before that happens, Ciao Sr. Draghi.   Now she would agree to a re-write of the Masttricht Treaty but by the time it would take for that to occur the game would be over.  A non-starter.  Better bet is that Spain folds and goes on bended knee to Brussels for a negotiated deal pretty much dictated by Germany...and that is exactly what began today as the Spanish Prime Minister indicated that, in effect, he was considering steps tht could be taken by his country to include accessing the bail-out facility provide he knew in advance what the conditions might be.  Waves of joy on all sides.  Of course Spain still has to sort out what they need as those pesky autonomous regions keep slipping in added external debt every other day.   I'm told the weekend may be devoted to more than the Olympics than I would have thought.

Speaking of that there is now a growing row between the Brits and Frankie Holland who, in a visit to London, got rather cheeky (at the time) as to the Gold Medal count of his country and GB.  Over here, competing state Governors will engage in friendly wagers over the Superbowl but over there wars have been fought over less.  Why do I still have this feeling that if the whole thing fell apart not too many people would care?   Anyway, it's the weekend.  Let's see what Monday brings.