I guess he was a good trader and all that and I'm sure he made a lot of money for himself but there are times when one has to question what sits in that vast cavity between his ears.
Super Mario (Draghi) stunned everybody this morning when he announced that he was prepared to save the Euro, "...by any means necessary." Kramer immediately called this "A Malcome X moment." Say what? Big Jim seems to have forgotten that shortly after uttering those immortal words, Malcome proved himself to be the world's greatest goaltender when he stopped four .38s from point blank range in under a second. Finito Malcome. One hopes that Mario's future is far brighter.
In any case, the effect on the markets and yields was quite amazing. The yield on the Spanish 10 year fell by a full point and practically the same was true for Italy. The stock market, whose futures had been stinko went nuts, and although the DOW closed off it's highs it was still up over 200 points at the close. Salvation! Can the Fed be far behind?
And of the Spanish 10 year? Well, that was a slightly different story. It closed at 7.15%, a lot better than 7.50% but still unsustainable.
Folks began to look at what Mario said a bit more closely. Euro was taken to mean certainly the currency and by extention, the Euro zone, but under what terms and did he mean the entire Euro zone?
Sr. Draghi is certainly all-in but there are limits as to his magical powers and the Euros understand that. Greece is no longer a given; in fact it has one foot out the door and is being nudged along by the boys and girls from up north and despite everyone now believing that the ECB is prepared to do anything, there is still that awkward thing called THE LAW about which some folks tend to hold in high regard. For example, the direct purchase of soverign debt only happens if there is unanimous agreement and the Germans are dead against it. Remember the Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules, and Germany has the gold along with a few other like-thinkers up north. So frankly, while it was incouraging to see the head of the ECB deal in a manner so transparent (which the Fed talks about but never practices), I'm not sure that this is the game changer that Kramer thinks it is. It fact, aside from Mario throwing a few more chips on the table the cards are still to be delt...and played...by some pretty tough folks around the table, and at this point not much has changed at all.
Meanwhile, in the L'Affair Libor, the sieve of a Justice Department was leaking all over the place today that indictments are being drawn up against individuals...you mean no institutions? Curiousor and curiousor. Could it be that the fiddle was being played against the institutions? Or where they just sending out a notice that they are attempting to obtain leverage. I guess we just watch and wait, but I am still in the dark as to how an institution can game a rate that everbody knows is not indicative of real trading values and in fact need not even be reported by the banks within the survey. Really strange. Maybe I should ask Kramer.
Got to imagine that the powers that be are doing everything possible to prevent the indictment of an institution - that is a death-knell. No institution can survive an indictment, particularly one with a fiduciary business. Probably could see some C&Ds and civil money penalties.
ReplyDeleteBTW: vacation anecdote: Italy circa 2012 is doing better than Spain circa 2009.
ReplyDeleteOne more question.
ReplyDeleteSay you're DB, and you're both a custodian and a calculation agent on swap payments...and you're found to have manipulated Libor...what kind of mess is the fiduciary business in?
You plead it down immediately to less than a felony as DB did 20 years ago when it was Called bankers Trust, pay the fine and get the hell out of town
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