AUGUST

It's a really bad month for things to go bad.  It's hot, people are uncomfortable and edgy.  No politician in the world is anywhere to be found and anyone who is working tends to be in a bad mood because, well, they're working and not on the beach somewhere so they're trying to find a way to get even.

For the past week it seems that anybody left working in the financial markets is trying to get even.  After a solid week of down days the DOW finally finished in positive territory today after losing about 1000 points in recent trading.  The debt crisis had been the reason according to the geniuses on the street but Moi thinks it was because every set of economic numbers both here and around the world stink with the exception of oil which is sharply lower because, well, because every set of economic numbers stink.  We're looking at a possible double-dip which is causing murmurs of QE III inasmuch as nobody has any better ideas especially The Leader--except for the birthday party that he's throwing for himself over the period of a week...on taxpayers' money I might add.  Then again, we could be in Euroland.

I'm still trying to get Massimo without very much success.  Italy, despite his assurances of last week is not looking good at all with the Prime Minister trying to hold on to his job rather than coming up with, thoughts, plans, solutions (sound familiar?)  to the train wreck of that country's fiscal situation.  Yesterday, the yield on Italian 10 year paper blew out to almost 6.5% and took Spain along with it.  It came in a bit today but not really enough to matter, while the Swiss are doing everything they can to dampen demand other than charging people interest to invest in the Franc which they have done in the past if you can believe it.  Now the general consenus is that the Franc is way, way overvalued and Italian paper is way undervalued but remember, it's August and the poor traders who are working are bent out of shape mad and are going to get even.

When Greece got bailed out the most important part of the package was the stability fund that was supposed to be put in place to stop the contagion from spreading.  But you see it's August: no self-respecting European politician works in August; the Parliment in Brussels is shut down until September and no one in a position of authority, anywhere, is around to talk about support for the Italians and the Spanish much less do what is necessary to get the fund up and running except for J.C. Trichet but he's having the same problem I'm having with Massimo--when he calls there's nobody home and the poor traders who have to work say, "Bugger it, if they don't care neither do I; I'll sell the crap all day long!"

 It's August.  August is a really bad month for things to go bad.