WHY ME?

Google has a couple of billion users they can mess with so why do they always pick on me? Despite assurances to the contrary, the blog was not successfukky published last evening and when I finally got it going this morning a goodly piece of the conclusion had been omitted. Apologies, but as I said, why me?

I thought a bit more about Little Paulie today and called a buddy I've known for a long time who lives and works inside the District. To protect the guilty I'm not even going to suggest his position but let's just say he's in the right zip code.

"You read Krugman on Monday?"

"Yep, it's required."

"...and...?

"And what. Paul has always been a spokesman for the administration. I'm surprised you're surprised."

"Oh, I'm not surprised, but what I'd like to know is do they really believe this stuff?

"You want an honest answer I suppose."

"To the extent possible."

"Ok Charlie but I'm on dangerous ground here. You going to write this up?"

"You don't want me to?"

"I...well...no, you can write it but for God's sakes cover me."

"Agreed."

"Charlie, the short answer is yes they do. They really do. They think they have been on the right track and have convinced themselves that progress is being made. Charlie these are really smart people and they are convinced that they have the right formula. They think...no, they KNOW...that they are the smartest people in the room and there's point point in trying to tell them otherwise.

"The funny part is there's not a whole lot of difference between the President and his team and the gang on the Street that got us into this mess in the first place. Remember, Charlie, when you explained to me what you meant by 'mark to model?' Charlie, these guys are doing the exact same thing; they have a 'model'--be it Ben at the Fed or the folks around the President and they will follow that model because it's theirs and because they are sure that they are right. Krugman is very influential; he's one of them. He has a Nobel Prize for cryin' out loud. He's ENVIED by some of these people because of it--even though they think they're smarter than he is! It's a world with which you are not familiar."

"But you should be able to get across to them given your background."

"Not a chance. Do you really thing that my experience [redacted---redacted---redacted] counts? They are academics and activists and true believers. I'm a rich Liberal and that's helpful but it's like being a laborer in a room full of royalty. You're there to help when called upon but never part of the family. Charlie, the worst thing is that they are out of ideas and they sort of know that but they can't simply bring themselves to believe it, so they keep recycling the old ones hoping that one of them will work or that some day they'll wake up and all of this will be over. They're not bad people; they really want to do good but they are in the middle of something they just don't understand and whatever they try, they seem to get a result they didn't expect.

"The numbers today, for example. They were awful and came as a complete shock. They were convinced the economy was really turning around and would be gathering steam right up to November of next year. Now, no one is sure of anything so the campaign is not going to be run on the record or on the future. It's going to be 'deamonize the other guy' because we cannot lose, we simply cannot. That will be the ultimate disaster...for the country. They really believe that.

"And you?"

"You, know, I'm not sure anymore." I have this awful feeling that I'm standing here watching an impending train wreck but I'm on the train. I'm just not sure. Say, let me ask you a question. What's going to happen over this debt limit? If it doesn't get raised, what happens? How do the markets react?"

"............, I don't know, and we've known each other long enough for you to know it's rare for me not to have an opinion. I'm pretty sure that unless there is a real deal on debt reductiont...not like that stupid $38 billion last time around...it's not going to happen. But if it doesn't, I have no idea of the outcome. I've written that I don't have a good feeling about any of this and nothing you have said makes me feel any better. But I know this: a good friend of ours has consistently said we are treating a serious disease with ever-increasing doses of Advil. The pain may be lessened but the disease remains and either it kills you or your liver gives out."

" (laughing) Jerry?"

"You got it in one. Get off the train old friend."

"Not yet Charlie, not yet. But it may not be long."