LIKE I NEVER LEFT

It's been ten days and I probably could have stayed away for ten more. Nothing has changed as unfortunately the light at the end of the tunnel that I talked about on the last post turned out to be a train rather than a hint of intelligence regarding Greece.The Euros, stupid to the end, refused to even consider some sort of real solution and instead created a charade, forcing the Greeks to enter into an austerity program that they cannot possibly implement, commit to 72 Billion Euros in privatazations that cannot possibly occur which at the same time insuring that political and social strife if not outright violence will rule throughout the country. Brilliant. Now running the show will be the newly-elected MD of the IMF, Mme. Lagarde (as predicted), ready, able and more than willing to cough up whatever it takes to insure that the largest bank exposure to Greece if one aggregates direct loan exposure and investments in Greek banks (who of course have the largest Greek exposure) will be able to continue to pretend that all is well. And who might those banks be you might ask? The French of course.

Now I'm as much of an Internationalist as the next guy--probably more so--but at some point one has to ask what the hell is it with our guys allowing our 18% investment in the capital of the IMF to be used in this manner? Don't make a lot of sense unless the pay=off is to allow us to continue to fund the non-war in Libya in which the Frenchies have gotten themselves caught up. You know, back in the good old days every time the French started acting stupid, the Germans would simply come across, kick them in the ass, point them in the right direction and that would be that. Now they're on the same side for gosh sakes and being stupid together! I guess I've lived too long. Of course The Leader's financial geniuses continue to state that this is a pure European problem: yeah, right. Then again, if they were to become involved...now there's a scary thought.

Meanwhile, over on this side of the pond, August 2 looms ahead and yesterday The Leader gave another scripted press conference to point out how a rise in the debt ceiling was an absolute must, coupled with tax rises of course.

The one great thing about not having a real job is that one has the ability to hear things live that will never be repeated on the evening news either becausde

1. They are too embarassing to those who said them or
2 They are too embarassing to to The Leader and by extention, the media who has been in the tank forever, or
3. Both directly

Anyway, this morning on a show on MSNBC a member of the Fourth Estate was asked what he thought of The Leader in his press conference. The answer. "Well, since we're on a seven second delay, I thought he acted like a dick."

Now I know this is a family blog but that is simply toooooo delicious not to mention inasmuch two years ago I told you this guy was a punk. To be honest, I don't care what he is, but what I do care about is whether he knows what it is he is doing. Yesterday he proved he was completely clueless which of course bodes ill for the country. Frankly, I suspect the only reason anyone listens to him any more is because of the office he holds; there is nothing to be learned. And so, August 2 approaches and the impending train wreck that if I were a betting man I would say the odds are now better than 50/50 will occur. I wish I knew what the fall-out would be but I don't have a clue. On the one hand, I don't think that the markets are as far along as I am as to the betting line but on the other, I don't think for a minute that there is abybody out there who really believes or would really believe that they would not receive payment from the United States--even with some delay involved. So we are not really talking about solvency concerns but timing concerns and I simply cannot gauge those. Therefore I'm going to talk to my really smart friend, Larry, and my other really smart friend, Gerry, to get their take on the thing. The other thing about which I haven't a clue are the collateral effect of a payment delay, if any. Figuring that out is going to take more time.

Oh yeah, there was one new thing that occured while I was out of action: the release of 30 million barrels from the strategic reserve but that was an act so meaningless and so stupid as to ignore with ease and not waste your time. Full re-election mode. Set aside all sanity.

Tomorrow. Good to be back.