ALMOST THERE

I was wrong. It turned out to be a pretty nice weekend, so nice in fact that I took an extra day, and low and behold it looks as though there will be a Greek rescheduling despite the objections of M. Trichet and the ECB.

I have always been dismissive of the concerns expressed by the gentleman but I though I had best check with He Who Is In The Know just to make sure I was reading this right. So I called He Who.

"Jean Claude. Is he just making noises like a central banker or does he have real concerns?"

"Oh no," said He Who, "he has real concerns. He keeps muttering things like 'Lehman encore' every time you bring it up."

"Comeon, he's known you for years. Can't you and the other Euros bring him around?"

"Charlie, look. What JC wants is out. He can't wait until Draghi gets the job. The one thing he does NOT want is a disaster on his watch and he has figured out that if the can...how you say...gets kicked, he will not have that. I mean after all, he is a good politician is he not?"

"Always has been but the longer this drags on the worse it's going to be. It always is."

"So why don't you call him and tell him that?"

"I haven't spoken to him in years. He would hardly remember. Knew him when I used to be somebody; that was along time ago."

Ah, Charlie, you are still somebody! Anyway what would you tell him?"

"Yeah, an old man, but seriously, I think it's a different situation. Greece is not going to be a systemic crisis no matter what happens and it was not Lehman per se but the uncertainty after Lehman that caused the mess. The guys over here made a mistake that no one else thought they would make and that caused what I've been calling an 'Oh s&%#' moment. You know, if they've done this, what else will they do that's dumb? In retrospect, had they tanked Bear no one would have cared, but they saved Bear and tanked Lehman which had a far bigger international presence. But Greece? Come on. Add on Ireland and Portugal and you still have a managable if expensive situation."

"Agreed, but he remains worried about the precedent."

"What precedent? It's been done before. Look, what he really means is he doesn't like the idea of forcing people to exchange one obligation for another. Unlike our President who ran roughshod over everybody with the car companies not to mention our bankrupcy laws, JC is a traditionalist. You don't force people to do anything; you simply make them an offer they can't refuse."

"What is that you say...?"

"Forget it. Look, You don't want to participate in an exchange offer? No Problem! Of course any form of guarantee you have goes away, or the paper is no longer eligible for discount at the ECB which means any secondary market for it is dead, or..."

"Charlie, you are as big a...no, I shall not stoop to such levels. But I think that is what is being dicussed or something like it. But tell me you call that sort of thing purely voluntary, eh?"

"As pure as the driven snow, mon ami. I also find it wonderfully Gaelic...a perfect rationalization. JC should love a scheme like that. By the way, the Irish Finance guy was on the television today making it very clear that any change in the country's tax rate was not on."

"*&^%$# &^%( Are we going to have to deal with those people next?"

"Maybe not."

"Well, who then?"

"US! We may not pay anybody either come August."

"Charlie, that is something about which people like us do not joke."

"Ah, come on [He Who]. What's a trillion among friends?"

He hung up. I hope I gave him some good advice.