I love it when people agree with me and today was a veritable flood of affirmation. It started when a buddy called to tell me to read Andrew Sorkin's piece in the Times today. I rarely read Sorkin; he's way too smart for me, but I did it today on the recommendation.
The piece was about the soiree that Mike Milken throws every year out on the left coast as a sequel to the Predator's Ball, as it was known, before Mike would up in graduate school curtousy of the United States. The subject of one part of this was financial regulation and in particular, Dodd/Frank.To cut to the chase, the experts involved were Alan Schwartz, late of Bear Stearns, Ray McDanielCEO of Moody's Jim Milstein formally of the Treasury, Tom Wilson CEO of Allstate and the Chicago Fed and last but certainly not least Ken Griffen founder of Citadel. As an aside, Mr. Griffen was a HUGE supporter of The Leader's campaign in 2008 and the rest, with the possible exception of Mr. Wilson, Democrats to a man. In a word, they think Dodd Frank is a disaster; ill-conceived, unworkable and at the risk of making things worse than they otherwise would be. In addition, they are all quite sure that we will face another financial crisis and that all bets are off. It is certainly nice to have folks of this stature agree with you but may I ask where the hell were you clowns when this piece of crap was being written? Read Sorkin's story or better yet watch the event on the web. And think of ol' Charlie while so doing.
Well, I had hardly gotten over patting myself on the back when I started reading the WSJ and lo and behold there was an op ed piece written by Timo Soini Chairman of the True Finn Party about whom we spoke a few weeks back. The subject was Greece in particular and bailouts in general. It is breathtaking in its simplicity and in its logic and it confirms all you have been reading here for a year. I take no joy in this but the game in Europe is no longer afoot; it is over. I cannot conceive of a decision being made to throw more taxpayer's money after Greece when it is now clear the situation is hopeless. As Mr. Soini points out the planning for the to return to market principals must begin immediately and the restructuring begun. It is a marvelous piece of writing; I urge you to read it. And Carter, I don't think we need wait for August. The guns are firing now.
Off to the wedding of #2 son's sister-in-law. ALL the grandchildren will be present so this is going to be a fun time. See you next week unless I have something else to crow about. God, I love it so!!
My heart agrees with you, but my head thinks that the Eurocrats will find a way to kick the can down th road just a bit more. This is all political posturing at this point anyhow.
ReplyDeleteNothing seems like it will get solved without a crisis. One of the following must occur first:
1. Greece, Ireland or Portugal actually miss a paymet.
2. A Landesbank goes toes up due to illiquidity.
3. Spain's progress regresses and the caja mess is seen to be bigger than advertised.
4. The EU stress tests are actually credible and interbank liquidity in Europe collapses (and the ECB gets scared).
5. The Irish tell the rest of Europe to flip-off.
6. Merkel realizes she has lost the next election for the Bundestag, and as a parting sacrificial geasture desides to do the right thing and put this behind us.
I vote for option #3.
Enjoy the grandkids.