Carter. Carter wants to know if I'm a buyer of the Greek 30 @50. I can't afford buttons, Carter. I'm just trying to get the readership up so I can get my first $.10 check from Google. Besides, isn't the two year yielding 23% more attractive? Just kidding. But Carter has a point that nothing is going to happen because the banks couldn't pass the stress test which is exactly what I have been saying. And, again, we agree that the state in which the Landesbanks and the savings banks in Germany find themselves makes German politics the hottest potato on the continent. Yet, the beat goes on and the Greeks are openly talking of a restructuring which was not so before and as the Bard put it, "If it be not now, yet it will come." Three months is my call. I'll stay short.
My really smart friend Larry called today.
"Where are you?"
"CH. (we internationalists understand that to mean Switzerland...actually, it's the license designation for the Canton in which sits Zurich) Just had a coffee at the airport...eight bucks."
"Little cup too I bet."
"You don't think they would serve it like over in America? There isn't much about America that's real popular over here right now."
"Anything particularly unpopular?"
"Chairmen of our central bank. Greenspan never had much respect but this guy is positively reviled. I mean the only trade in town is sell the dollar and but ANYTHING---China, Russia, Swaziland if you can find it...even the Euro because Fritz is going to bail the Greeks out in the end."
"Whoa! How can they do that? There isn't enough money in Euroland for that and what will be required for everyone else who will be lining up outide of the door of the Bundesbank."
"They have to. The banks are bust. The effect on the economy will be too great. They have been whistling past the graveyard for years and hasen't even begun to fix the problem. They never change, they were just like this in the eighties with Latin America. Hell, Charlie, you if anyone should know that."
"Agreed, but I think they cover their banks somehow and Greece restructures because there is no place else to go."
"A possibility I admit, but my thesis holds even in that case. Buy anything but the dollar...even the Euro."
"What else are the good Burgers talking about besides dollar bashing?"
"China and an alternative reserve currency which is just another round of dollar bashing. It's very interesting how hard they are pushing for the Yuan to be a trading currency and of course the French are cheering them on all along the way not because it does anything good for them but because it's bad for the U.S. They're wonderful the French. It's funny to watch the interplay. A weak dollar hurts exports but it helps with commodity prices and I don't think the Euros are quite sure how to view that part of it. There's no question, however, that the inflationary pressures it causes just drive them nuts and everybody else in the world as far as I can see. Of course the geniuses in and around this administration don't seem to give a damn. The concept of international responsibility is lost on them."
"And Elizabeth?"
"Just fine, loves being home where she can go visit her money like a good little Swiss miss. You know, I tried to open a CHF account in Zermatt 'cause we're always going there and they would take my money."
"What! The Swiss refusing money! Capital controls?"
"Nope. U.S. passport. Just not worth the effort for them after the UBS thing. Told me to go to head office and plead my case."
"Did you?"
"There are still a lot of banks in Switzerland, Charlie." But being an American aint what it used to be. You are what you spend. And if you spend dollars these days nobody wants to know you."
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