Certainly nothing that was in The Speech Tuesday night. The Leader, for all the hopes of future years, is a committed Socialist/Leftist/Big Govvie Guy, call him whatever you wish, with the understanding that there is nothing wrong with being a proponent of any of those things except that for the most part events have proven they don't work very well--or at least in my opinion. So, what we can expect from here is a knock down, drag-out fight up to the election of 2012 between the right and the left with little being accomplished, the economy lumbering forward, unemployment remaining in the 9% range, housing stinko, and a general funk settling over the business climate which will overwhelm the momentary good feels brought about by the results of last year's election (make no mistake, it was the results that brough about the pop in confidence) with the knowledge that the only the The Leader cares about is getting reelected. He might just do it as no strong opposition has yet emerged. Then again, things could go south in a hurry which could change the game entirely. Might happen, too.
Inflation, despite the administration's claims and the view of the Fed is real. Oh, not in the official numbers but in the tape from the cash register folks get when their weekly shopping is over. Jimmy Rogers was on the horn the other day predicting $150-$200 oil. Rogers is not a dope. To supply ethonol to the level of 15% which will kill my 1993 Acura has already had an effect on food prices: we compete with China and India for most commodities now...hello; interest rates on the rise despite QE II and dare we mention the looming muni situation?
We dare. Today, Moody's announced that they would begin to consider the pension overhang on the states' credit ratings. For the usual suspects, that can't be good but the dummies at Moody's are about to get in wrong again. Rather than making their own assumptions in regard to the reinvestment rates from which shortfalls or surpluses are calculated, they intend to accept the states' evaluations at face value. Remember 2008? There was some question as I recall as to the valuation of certain assets held on the books of various financial institutions around the world. The institutions felt it was 100...others felt it was somewhat below that figure and that's when the problem started. In merely highlighting this issue, Moody's will spotlight it which is not particularly useful but then again, no one ever clainmed these guys were very smart. Right at the time when Illinois is planning to raise a few billion here and there to fund its pensions plans for the year. Ya gotta wonder. My father used to say, "Do it right or don't do it at all." Moody's never met my father.
Paul Ryan seems to be the point guy for the Loyal Opposition which is good because he's nobody's fool. I would, however, like to see him attack our dreadful fiscal shape with an all out assault upon the tax code rather than messing about the edges as he seems to be doing. Is there no support in his own party for this? I frankly don't understand because all of the logical arguments seem to be supportive of this goal. Is it because once one scratches off the red or the blue one winds up with the same politician underneath? Ya gotta wonder.
Finally, did anyone notice that the other night The Leader barely mentioned the views of the Bowles/Wyoming Win Nut Commission that he himself handpicked, and there was barely a mention of that fact in the mainstream media or anywhere else for that matter? They actually came up with a few good ideas and yet the Commission has been cast aside as though it never happened. Ya gotta wonder. I'm going to do just that.
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