I'M CONFUSED

...again.  Yesterday, everything tanked.  Today everything went through the roof.  Obviously something fundamental changed overnight...or did it?  BP lost 16% on the exchange on Wednesday; today it gained back a goodly portion of the loss.  Did the oil stop flowing?  Nope.  Did The Leader call the chairman and do kissy-kissy?  Nope.  Did the trial lawyers association announce they had no plans for BP?  Ha!  So why the sudden reversal?  I'm confused.

On Wednesday, China look like a disaster waiting to happen.  Currency the wrong was around, real estate bubble, labor strife and worsening U.S. relations.  Today, with exports up 50% in May (from a lousy 2009), China is hot again.  I'm confused.

On Wednesday, Europe was going right down the gurgle tube.  Today it looks stable.  Momentous change overnight?  No.  I'm confused.

The more I look about me the more I reach the conclusion that there are very few people out there who have any real idea as to what is happening and less of an idea as to how to connect the dots that roam freely through the financial world, erasing barriers that were in existence just a few years ago.  More importantly, events occur in isolation in various continents belying the fact to which all the important players agree that we live in a vastly more interconnected society than ever before.  Markets seem to react in a random pattern for which there is no explaination or at least none that I can discern.  It is almost as though one is inside a trading room which has taken a view and suddenly one of the traders says, "Bugger that," and goes off in the opposite direction without any stops in place or control being asserted.   It is surreal.  I'm not only confused, I'm baffled.

Of one thing I am sure, however.  Beginning tomorrow, 80% of the people involved in this business will begin caring less about what it's all about and stay that way for about a month.  Mexico opens against South Africa tomorrow and it's England vs. the United States on Saturday.  Next week one will witness a substantial volume decline in trading rooms as all eyes are geared to the World Cup.  Think I'm joking?  I'm not.  Happens every four years.  Son #2, born in London, will be here for the weekend and has demanded that Pride be on hand.  He feels torn:  Pride he believes will help him rid himself of any self-loathing as he thinks he should root for the Americans.  Once this is past it's UP FOR ENGLAND the rest of the way as we both should get through (England certainly) and on to the finals.  I'd be long Fuller's is I be thee.  Of that I'm not confused.



The Financial bill comes back to haunt us shortly.  Thank God for the World Cup, but we'll be watching