...and not a moment too soon. And no, I don't know what the hell happened in the stock market yesterday and it appears that neither does anyone else, but not to worry, The Leader announced that there will be some sort of Fed investigation to get to the bottom of the matter so I will sleep well tonight knowing that the Feds are looking over me.
I do know, however, that there are damn few long positions anywhere and the situation in Europe will dominate things for a while. There was very little liquidity around and the markets seemed to be taking a few deep breaths wondering what Monday will bring. Remember the old WW II movies when one guy turns to his buddy and says, "I don't like it, it's too quiet?" That's the way I feel. Having put some sort of package in place and gotten parliaments to approve the same, the leadership of Europe took off for a weekend of revelry in where else but Paris. Not a bad job being a head of state. The G-7 had a bit of a chin-wag and The Suit put out an announcement that discussions were going just fine, everyone was of one mind on Greece and everyone was looking at alternatives and monitoring the situation closely.
You moron. The one thing you don't want to talk about is alternatives because everyone knows there is only one real alternative and you sure as hell don't want to stumble into that without real preparation.
Meanwhile on the home front the Reps are up in arms about U.S. taxpayer money being used to bail out Greece and God knows who else via the IMF. Now I can understand some consternation about the role of the IMF but the leading voices at this moment...and there are some Dems as well...can't spell IMF and frankly are doing a disservice in raising the truly important question of what the role of the IMF should be at this point in time. There are going to be bigger issues we will have to face; let's not run off chasing what quite frankly is a minor irritant except from a political "red meat" standpoint. For example...
My old buddy The "Eagle" rang up today. Eagle has been laid low by a bum ticker these last few years but there's nothing wrong with his mind.
"Charlie," says he, "The whole damn world is on a cash accounting basis. These clowns are lending Billions to solve today's problem without a clue how they are going to be paid back!"
"Appears so."
"The states are in the same boat. Contingencies are all off the balance sheet. They're broke but still want to borrow even more money to pay today's bills." What the hell do you do?"
"Have a drink?"
"No thank you. I want to be home for Christmas. Kudlow on tv can tell you about that. I'm serious, what the hell do you do? I've lived a long time and I have never seen so many people in denial. Do they have any idea what the problem is?"
"Sure, they're not stupid but right now it's whistling past the graveyard that is the preferred strategy."
"Charlie, it's the banks isn't it? They're scared to death of the system. Where are the U.S. banks?"
"I'm not sure, Ege but if I were to bet I don't think the exposure to Greece is very big at all...as a matter of fact I'd put a big bet on that." But what we are seeing is a bit of 2008 all over again; who do you trust and this whole thing, as you know is trust. This weekend is more important than people realize. If we have an "event," Monday should never come. Politically, I just don't think they can go back to their people and suggest that more needs to be done. Right now it looks to be too close to call but we may get through the next month or so, then again..."
We spoke for a long time and it was good to hear his voice. Good guy. He asked me, remembering I majored in English what was that thing I used to quote all the time from Hamlet.
"Which one, Ege?"
"You know the fates thing."
'If tis now, tis not to come; if tis not to come, tis now...?
How's it end..."
"If it be not now, yet it will come."
"That's it! It's going to come isn't it?"
"The weekend?"
"Don't be a smart ass all your life Charlie."
"Yeah Ege, I'm afraid it will come."
"See ya Charlie."
"Later, Ege."
Memo to Al Gore: Where the hell is this global warming. It's going to freeze this weekend. I have to dig up my tomatoes.
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