...was a partner at the New York firm of White & Case. I was just a pup banker but Jimmy liked me and took me under his wing. He was a southern gentleman from an old Virginia family, had attended "The University" and it's law school and had been in the practice of law for over thirty years when I first met him...and yes, he was the great-great-great-great grandson.
Despite all of this, at the start of any negotiation Jimmy would always say, "Gentlemen (there were no ladies), in matters such as this someone has to be a son-of-a-bitch and since I am best qualified to perform that role I nominate myself." Jimmy always performed admirably.
Greece, Europe and perhaps the world has suffered from the absence of a Jimmy Marshall. No one took charge and the result is now a real question emerging as to whether Greece can survive without a major restructuring that could result in losses all around. Today, S & P lowered Greece's credit rating to junk while at the same time cutting it's rating for Portugal. As for Greece S & P was merely reflecting the market assessment which was pricing medium term risk at a level of 1200 bp above the Bund. At this level it is fair to say that the market has priced in a restructuring:on a mark-to-market basis the rivers are running red with blood.
Who takes the blame for this? Surely there is enough to go around but as the primus-inter-parus of this band of merry men, one has to tie the can onto Germany for this one. A clear statement of German support would have nipped this thing in the bud--yes it would still have been ugly but not to this extent. I feel like a real jerk as I had truly believed that the threat of the collapse of the Euro and the EU itself would be enough to get an adult response to this situation. That collapse is now very much in sight and one wonders whether there has been an organized effort to achieve this result or was it just incompetence that has ruled the day. So one is left to wonder where do we go from here? For the life of me, I'm out of ideas but to under estimate the scope of the financial catastrophy we might be witnessing would be seriously unwise. As I have stated the true condition of European financial institutions is undoubtably not as good at this stage as is the condition of our own and a series of sovereign defaults could set off a crisis not dissimilar from what we have just experienced. Let us hope this does not occur.
Jimmy, we hardly knew ya, but boy, do they need you now.
The Goldman hearings today are an embarassment. Carl Levin is a disgrace as a legislator and pretty much as a human being which is kind of redundant as he is a career politician. His colleagues are not much better. None of them knew what they are talking about. The Goldman mob was shown as being probably brilliant in their field but absolutely useless in the role assigned. They are narrow, inarticulate little nerds. Trading quants at best. They did no good to their firm or to themselves.
More on both these items tomorrow. Oh, in case you missed it, the stock market tanked on both of these events, the Euro is in the crapper and Treasuries are going flatter and flatter across the curve. Somebody must think we're in great shape which leads one to wonder what would be happening if the Yuan was convertible which it would have to become if broadly revalued. Be careful for what you wish.
The grandkids are great, thank you. Nice to be back
I agree with you Carl Levin is a disgrace, with John McCain not far behind. I thought the ranking Republican (Doctor something) at least made an honest attempt to get behind the differences between prop trading, market making and underwriting. I haven’t read the SEC case in detail, but unless Goldman was underwriting the issues in question it’s going to be tough to get them on disclosure. The elephants in the room that noone has the balls to acknowledge are
ReplyDelete- sophisticated investors - this smacks of P&G and Bankers Trust – déjà vu all over again
- Fannie, Freddie and Congress are getting a free ride
- A very greedy mainstreet who really wanted something for nothing……duh! BTW, since when did being underwater on the equity of your primary home become a cause for bail out?
Blankfein is inarticulate – where’s Mr Charlie when you need him? Blankfein was dead on on one count, however – this boils down to capital allocation and liquidity particularly as it relates to derivatives. At a guess at least 50% of the global derivatives market would not be traded on any new exchange – it’s the structured product where the money is and ultimately the real mark to market risk. Also synthetics are a real issue – this has been proven time and time again in the energy markets… the guy with physical wins , remember MG? All in all another poor showing all round. Later, dude,