SEMANA SANTA

When I was working the Latin beat, Holy Week was a time of no action whatsoever. Indeed, in proper Latin thinking there was a period needed to prepare for Semana Santa and then a period needed to properly reflect upon the holy events which had occurred so many years ago. To put it another way, three weeks were shot.

With The Leader wandering around Europe accomplishing Sweet Fanny Adam it appears but looking terribly good doing it, the Congress gone and Our Hero trying to figure out why he said he was in the business of canning bank CEOs and entire boards of directors while trying to convince the same to agree to his plan, nothing much has been happening. Perfect timing for an Emerging Market kind of country. To fill the vacuum, the IMF jumped in today with their analysis of the size of the toxic asset pool held by banks. Now keep in mind this is the mob that were proclaimed to be part of the solution at last week's gathering in London. A true John McEnroe moment: "YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!" Yep, they are.

I'm getting one of my very uncomfortable feelings again that all isn't going quite right and this is sort of the calm before another storm. Bank earnings are going to be released quite soon as is--reportedly at least--some information regarding the "Stress Test" (there's the Ghost of Al Gore again). One would hope that there is some correlation between the two events because if, as I suspect, the earnings on an operating basis are going to be quite good and the stress test reports don't jive I think somebody might stand up with a, " Hello, hold on" type of moment which will set off a real scramble as to the efficacy of Our Hero's plan. Who's cooking the books in this deal might become a real issue.

In the midst of all of this, The New York Times ran an interesting piece on the FDIC who, from almost total (and somewhat deserved obscurity), has emerged as a central player despite there being nothing really know about their existence. As reported, Ms. Bair & Co. has placed herself in the Queen Seat of guarantor of all that is supposed occur if Our Hero has his way. As we discussed a free days ago, the FDIC has a budget but no real capital. The wonderful thing about it acting in this manner, however, is that no appropriations are needed in a guarantor role as the FDIC and the FDIC alone determines what it's liability might be. 6-5 and even that the determination will be "none." Forgive me, but do I hear the sound of a CDS creator in the background? The great facilitator, the FDIC...and all on unappropriated taxpayer's money. The Art of the Deal as The Donald would say. By all means do the deal. By the by, the word on the street is that The Donald may be in real trouble again. Now isn't that funny? One more tomorrow.