Monday, November 28, 2016


Sorry about last week.  I couldn't do it Monday and Tuesday and then it was off for Thanksgiving.  It has been a rough few weeks and seeing the grand kids certainly helped.  Anyway, let's try to catch up by highlighting a few events of what is a rather important week before us.

The transition of governance continues apace Over Here with some of our major institutions such as the New York Times and NBC still in a total state of denial and in some cases approaching madness in contemplating a Trump administration.  It's a bit fun to watch but at at time when a true healing is much needed the attempts of the political left to continue to de-legitimatize Trump himself are becoming overwhelming by the new attempt to de-legitimatize the election itself with ridiculous calls for a recount in three states that Hillary couldn't have possibly lost...I she?  I could care less but this stupidity demeans discussion on real issues and will no doubt provoke a backlash among Trump's more ardent supporters who not on;y have the wind at their backs but the votes as well.  At a time when solid  reasoning and debate are needed, we run a good chance of getting...another two years as we had under Obama?  For those who don't live within these borders and may have a hard time understanding what this is all about, allow me to make one of my rare forays into the political thicket.  It goes like this.

Hilliary won the popular vote by a plurality.  So what.  In our system, it is the electoral vote that counts and that may not bode well for the Democratic Party in the future.  The Dems are the party of the coasts; the Repubs have everything in the middle and the urbanization of America may not be the sure thing that has been spoken of almost as Gospel over the past few years.  Yet, with the majority of votes in just two states, California and New York, a Democratic candidate might just win the whole thing in the future if there was no electoral college.  This is the first battle in that fight.  A change would require an amendment to the Constitution and that is no easy thing.  It would also logically require a change in the nature of government to a parliamentary system.  So much for We the People of the United States...and--whether you like it or not--the greatest political document ever written.  Then again, perhaps it is time.  Keep this analysis in mind as we navigate through the next few years in out history.

Anyway, the week to come.  The ECB gets together on Wednesday and quite frankly I have no idea with what Sr. Draghi is up to although I suspect not much at the present time because in Europe as Over Here, political events are beginning to supplant monetary events as the driving force as, IMHO, they should.  And there is a very big political event this weekend in Italy where a referendum proposed by the prime minister, if supported, could change the political face of that country forever and almost assuredly, the political face of the European Union.  It is far too  close to call but I have booked a call to my friend Massimo for tomorrow and as a result I expect to have a better feel for the situation by deadline time tomorrow.

Oh yeah, we have a job number on Friday that supposedly will make the decision for the Fed in December.  Don't waste your time.  The Fed will raise a quarter point and try to get the hell out of the way, allowing markets to drive the monetary scene for a while and--hopefully in its mind--getting out of the bore-sight of the incoming administration where it has very few friends.  Survival, even at that high level is a very basic emotion.

More tomorrow.

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