Well, we're back. The eulogy went well but in the time we were on Long island I lost a cousin and another dear friend who was exactly my age. Things come in threes so I guess I'm safe for a while. But when the Big Trader decides to lift your bid...anyway you can't worry about it.
What one can worry about is Greece. The Greeks owe a hell of a lot of people a hell of a lot of money and have to borrow nearly $40 billion in the next few months just to keen the loans rolling (remember, a rolling loan gathers no loss). It anit out there, at least not yet from the usual sources. Now Greece is no Iceland; it is a real country and the consequences of a default are more than a touch dire for the Euro Zone, Euro Banks and the entire fabric of the European Union. The Greeks are also a bit nuts...at least in my experience. One is never quite sure which Greek you are going to get when one wakes up in the morning. Consequently, there is more than a tiny chance that something could fly off the rails before this is over--not that I'm making a prediction but the chance is there.
Now I must admit prior to may absence, I was going to explore who holds the Greek debt and in what form as the answer to those questions will go a long way in determining how this rescue package is to proceed. late this afternoon, the Journal announced that the sing on the Greek Central bank was about to have added, "Deutsche Bundesbank, Prop." but that has yet to be confirmed. I can't imagine any of the governments going it alone on this one--or even in concert--without exploring the well-known concept of "burden sharing" on the part of commercial creditors but until we know the size and stock of the debt how this could be structured cannot be know. That's my job for tomorrow. Anyway, our stock market took heart and rallied so maybe somebody knows more than I do...which wouldn't be the first time. Most remarkable, however, is the fact that the Greeks were lying through their teeth as to the state of their finances FOR YEARS and neither the EU, the Fund or anyone else who should have cared picked it up. Of course, my really smart friend Larry has been blowing the whistle on this for a couple of years now but nobody listened. Waiting in the wings of course are Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain so how this is dealt with is of no little consequence. Things are changing overnight so we'll pick up this tale tomorrow.
Nice to be back.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
ON THE ROAD AGAIN
APO
LOGIES. I'M HEADING EAST TO GIVE THE EULOGY AT THE MEMORIAL SERVICE FOR MY FRIEND JOE. I'M NOT INTO WRITING MUCH ELSE. NOT A ADULT REACTION, PERHAPS, BUT IT IS WHAT IT IS OR TO BE MORE ACCURATE, I YAM WHAT I YAM
SEE YOU NEXT WEEK
LOGIES. I'M HEADING EAST TO GIVE THE EULOGY AT THE MEMORIAL SERVICE FOR MY FRIEND JOE. I'M NOT INTO WRITING MUCH ELSE. NOT A ADULT REACTION, PERHAPS, BUT IT IS WHAT IT IS OR TO BE MORE ACCURATE, I YAM WHAT I YAM
SEE YOU NEXT WEEK
Thursday, January 28, 2010
SCOOPED THEM AGAIN
You might take a look at the leading article in the Wall Street Journal today. What it does is to explore in greater detail the point I made yesterday that the real shocker in yesterday's testimony was the revelation that it was the threat of the downgrade of AIG by the rating agencies was the catalyst for the final decision on the payout on the banks.
Loyal reader Mark C. has called me a jerk for my comments of yesterday but I would simply reply that the views of the insurance commissioner of the State of New York, Eric Dinallo seems to be in direct opposition to those of Messrs Paulson/Geithner as to the state of affairs at AIG during the time in question. Mark also claims I'm part of the Geithner/Paulson cabal and are being fed what amounts to lies.
Sorry Marc, but I haven't spoken to Mr. Geithner in a hell of a long time and I have never met Mr. Paulson. As for whose correct as to the state of affairs, my bet would be with the Treasury and the New York Fed a opposed to the political hacks in the insurance commissioner's office. Remember, it was that office that oversaw the firing of Mr. Greenberg on trumped up charges brought by Eliot Spitzer and the hiring of the jerk that replaced him. Mark should also keep in mind that fear is all-controlling. The nicities of corporate attachments don't mean a thing in an environment then-faced. I don't like what happened any more than Marc does but I don't think these guys had any good options. Nice to know I'm loved, wanted and read. Thanks Marc.
Loyal reader Mark C. has called me a jerk for my comments of yesterday but I would simply reply that the views of the insurance commissioner of the State of New York, Eric Dinallo seems to be in direct opposition to those of Messrs Paulson/Geithner as to the state of affairs at AIG during the time in question. Mark also claims I'm part of the Geithner/Paulson cabal and are being fed what amounts to lies.
Sorry Marc, but I haven't spoken to Mr. Geithner in a hell of a long time and I have never met Mr. Paulson. As for whose correct as to the state of affairs, my bet would be with the Treasury and the New York Fed a opposed to the political hacks in the insurance commissioner's office. Remember, it was that office that oversaw the firing of Mr. Greenberg on trumped up charges brought by Eliot Spitzer and the hiring of the jerk that replaced him. Mark should also keep in mind that fear is all-controlling. The nicities of corporate attachments don't mean a thing in an environment then-faced. I don't like what happened any more than Marc does but I don't think these guys had any good options. Nice to know I'm loved, wanted and read. Thanks Marc.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
...AND ON THE SEVENTH DAY
God rested. But he got bored and he said to himself, "Ah, let me fool around with this creation stuff and make a few things that re a bit different. And so he made aardvarks, and marsupials and all sorts of weird, one-of-a-kind animals. He also fooled around with humans, making a sub-species that looked like regular humans but were considerably less intelligent--stupid really--just for amusement. Today, we call this sub-species Congressmen.
They were on full display today as the Townes committee interviewed The Suit. By the by, have you noticed that Mr. Townes looks exactly like Howdy Doody? Honest to God I was looking for Buffalo Bob Smith to pop up behind this guy. SURPRISE! Look, I pull this string and his mouth moves! Intellectually, Mr. Townes is one of the stars so it is no surprise that The Suit put on a terrific show. When he's on, he's on and give him a bunch of straight men like this and brother, he was ON!
The subject was the AIG situation and it became immediately apparent that having received 250,000 subpoenaed not one congressperson had read more than a page. My son, who works within the Beltway hit it right on the head:
"Dad, all these people do is raise money for reelection. They have 20+ staffers and do what the staffers tell them to do." He should know; he was a staffer.
As you know I think the NY Fed could have done better with the AIG situation. I think that the inability of the Fed to guarantee the AIG obligations as it would have been illegal for them to do so should have led them to a market based effort involving making a market in the CDOs central to the issue. I do not know whether this was considered but having failed to adopt that approach the Fed really had little leverage against the banks. What did come out today that was not generally well known was that the rating agencies informed the Fed right in the middle of the mess that they were about to downgrade AIG which, had it occurred, would have created an event of default not only as to the CDOs but as to the insurance business as well. AIG was not the only insurance company involved in this business. The reaction of the market would have been catastrophic. I don't like Mr. Geithner; I don't think he should have been appointed to his present position but then he got it right. Had any of these so-called law makers had been asked to make a decision such as that the people in New York were asked to make I suspect they would have soiled themselves. They are disgraceful and they are liars as well. Practically every one of them accused the Fed of hiding the fact that the banks were being paid 100 cents on the dollar. Crap. I cursory reading of the Times and the Journal would show that the full payout had been reported for days. EVERYONE knew except these clowns.
The Suit also said something that should have sent chills down the spine of every one of these fools but of course they missed it. Speaking to the point as to who was watching the store Geithner said that the insurance commissioners in probably 30 states had no idea in what businesses the companies they oversaw were involved. No reaction. None. Zip. Nada. And this is the financial oversight committee of the Congress of the United States. We're doomed.
They were on full display today as the Townes committee interviewed The Suit. By the by, have you noticed that Mr. Townes looks exactly like Howdy Doody? Honest to God I was looking for Buffalo Bob Smith to pop up behind this guy. SURPRISE! Look, I pull this string and his mouth moves! Intellectually, Mr. Townes is one of the stars so it is no surprise that The Suit put on a terrific show. When he's on, he's on and give him a bunch of straight men like this and brother, he was ON!
The subject was the AIG situation and it became immediately apparent that having received 250,000 subpoenaed not one congressperson had read more than a page. My son, who works within the Beltway hit it right on the head:
"Dad, all these people do is raise money for reelection. They have 20+ staffers and do what the staffers tell them to do." He should know; he was a staffer.
As you know I think the NY Fed could have done better with the AIG situation. I think that the inability of the Fed to guarantee the AIG obligations as it would have been illegal for them to do so should have led them to a market based effort involving making a market in the CDOs central to the issue. I do not know whether this was considered but having failed to adopt that approach the Fed really had little leverage against the banks. What did come out today that was not generally well known was that the rating agencies informed the Fed right in the middle of the mess that they were about to downgrade AIG which, had it occurred, would have created an event of default not only as to the CDOs but as to the insurance business as well. AIG was not the only insurance company involved in this business. The reaction of the market would have been catastrophic. I don't like Mr. Geithner; I don't think he should have been appointed to his present position but then he got it right. Had any of these so-called law makers had been asked to make a decision such as that the people in New York were asked to make I suspect they would have soiled themselves. They are disgraceful and they are liars as well. Practically every one of them accused the Fed of hiding the fact that the banks were being paid 100 cents on the dollar. Crap. I cursory reading of the Times and the Journal would show that the full payout had been reported for days. EVERYONE knew except these clowns.
The Suit also said something that should have sent chills down the spine of every one of these fools but of course they missed it. Speaking to the point as to who was watching the store Geithner said that the insurance commissioners in probably 30 states had no idea in what businesses the companies they oversaw were involved. No reaction. None. Zip. Nada. And this is the financial oversight committee of the Congress of the United States. We're doomed.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
MOMMA SAID...
Woke up this morning to discover that something happened to last night's posting: 1/5 got posted. No luck retrieving the rest (which of course was brilliant). The dog was sick as, well, a dog and the wife went to panic stations. Nurse Charlie was trying to get her to move and eat and pee and drink (the dog not the wife) while the latter was on the phone to the vet. Appointment in the afternoon by which time the dog was fine but the marital relationship had suffered. Cost: $120. Being able to tell the wife I told you so: priceless. Of course I'm now sharing the dog's house and missed the blog. See you tomorrow.
Be sure to watch the Hill testimony on AIG tomorrow. Rep Issa is on a which hunt, the jerk.
... there'd be days like this my Momma said...
Be sure to watch the Hill testimony on AIG tomorrow. Rep Issa is on a which hunt, the jerk.
... there'd be days like this my Momma said...
Monday, January 25, 2010
THE BLOGGER'S BUDDY
He did it again! Krugman is simply a joy for somebody like me. After a weekend of terrific football, where you're all worn out and hung over, comes this jackass to lighten your life and give you something to write about. Today, he gave a luke-warm thumbs-up to Ben Bernanke calling him a "superb research economist"--takes one to know one. But he's too complacent says Paul, as he was before the crisis, and it was his complacency that caused the same. Seems that Paul thinks Ben didn't speak out on sub-prime lending. Ah, Paul. The origin of sub-prime was always Fanny and Freddie and the Fed had been speaking out against their policies for years--you and your boys just didn't listen. Now the problem is too much complacency about under-employment. It seems that Ben is going to have to adopt policies to create jobs.
How the hell a central banker is supposed to do that Paulie doesn't tell us...which of course begs the question entirely as to whether that is a central banker's job at all. What it does do, however, is avoid the difficult conclusion that The Leader's administration, for the first year at least, has been more or less a disaster on the job and fiscal front which is the real purpose of the piece. Krugman concludes that Bernanke should be reappointed nevertheless because a successor would face too hard a battle in congress. He right there. What he's really saying is that if Ben stays around we can blame him forever...just like george Bush
How the hell a central banker is supposed to do that Paulie doesn't tell us...which of course begs the question entirely as to whether that is a central banker's job at all. What it does do, however, is avoid the difficult conclusion that The Leader's administration, for the first year at least, has been more or less a disaster on the job and fiscal front which is the real purpose of the piece. Krugman concludes that Bernanke should be reappointed nevertheless because a successor would face too hard a battle in congress. He right there. What he's really saying is that if Ben stays around we can blame him forever...just like george Bush
Friday, January 22, 2010
BETTY GRABLE
Talk about legs! The story was continued today in a manner that defies description and comprehension. Just when folks were beginning to get their arms around The Leader's statement of yesterday to which he has now attached Volker's name, it seemed that every Dumbo...eh...Democrat legislator jumped up to announce that they were not about to support Ben Bernanke's reappointment. Immediately, the leadership announced that they weren't sure they had the votes and delayed the confrontation until next week. Most folks had already concluded that The Suit was toast but the destruction of the administration's entire financial team had never been given serious credence except for a few viewers on the fringe. Reality then struck.
You gotta feel sorry for ol' Helicopter Ben. One should never trust a politician especially this present layer of pond scum that inhabits D.C. but having compromised every principal he had he rightfully might have expected better treatment than this. Didn't happen. The Leader, having decided that rank populism is the way out for him led by bashing anything that looks financial, dragged members of his party into that self-dug septic tank and the hell with anything or anybody that was in the way. It may be self-delusion on my part but I think that the public is warming to the idea that one can rely on nothing this guy says and that this administration is in the first phase of a death spiral from which they may not emerge. The stock market tanked again and I wouldn't be surprised to see a major correction beginning next week and unless there's somebody around to restore confidence the whispers of "double-dip" may become shouts. Not good.
If this wasn't enough, up pops Barney Baby announcing that he's about to end Fanny and Freddie's lives and replace them with something else. Once again The Suit was no where to be seen. And while this was going on The Leader was out in Ohio, tie-less talking to the working man. If he was Mexican I think he'd be wearing a leather jacket and screaming, "COMPADRES" at all and sundry that faced him. What a schtick!
Look, I'm not hoping for doomsday to arrive but this administration makes one yearn for the good old days of Jimmy Carter. Gang, unless somebody comes into touch with reality we could be in real trouble. Whether The Leader and Tall Paul have it right by the banks is rapidly becoming immaterial in an administration that is living in fairy coo-coo land. ... --- ... if anybody still remembers Morse Code.
Tough weekend coming up. Colts vs. the J E T S JETS! JETS! JETS! I'm torn
You gotta feel sorry for ol' Helicopter Ben. One should never trust a politician especially this present layer of pond scum that inhabits D.C. but having compromised every principal he had he rightfully might have expected better treatment than this. Didn't happen. The Leader, having decided that rank populism is the way out for him led by bashing anything that looks financial, dragged members of his party into that self-dug septic tank and the hell with anything or anybody that was in the way. It may be self-delusion on my part but I think that the public is warming to the idea that one can rely on nothing this guy says and that this administration is in the first phase of a death spiral from which they may not emerge. The stock market tanked again and I wouldn't be surprised to see a major correction beginning next week and unless there's somebody around to restore confidence the whispers of "double-dip" may become shouts. Not good.
If this wasn't enough, up pops Barney Baby announcing that he's about to end Fanny and Freddie's lives and replace them with something else. Once again The Suit was no where to be seen. And while this was going on The Leader was out in Ohio, tie-less talking to the working man. If he was Mexican I think he'd be wearing a leather jacket and screaming, "COMPADRES" at all and sundry that faced him. What a schtick!
Look, I'm not hoping for doomsday to arrive but this administration makes one yearn for the good old days of Jimmy Carter. Gang, unless somebody comes into touch with reality we could be in real trouble. Whether The Leader and Tall Paul have it right by the banks is rapidly becoming immaterial in an administration that is living in fairy coo-coo land. ... --- ... if anybody still remembers Morse Code.
Tough weekend coming up. Colts vs. the J E T S JETS! JETS! JETS! I'm torn
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