END OF THE WEEK TIDBITS

I didn't like this week at all.  It seems to me that nothing good happened anywhere and life is getting more and more dangerous.  A couple of thoughts.

The Middle East has broken out into a cauldron of regional slaughter and a brutal continuation of the 1000+ year battle between Sunnis and Shias with M1A1 Tanks replacing chariots and horses.  The Saudis appear to be all in given the Shia threat from  Iran and its allies in Yemen with Egypt lending a hand.  Collateral Damage is not a phrase found in Arabic, and these guys have some serious weaponry to throw about so we can expect the newsreels from the region to be horrific in the coming weeks.  Inasmuch as Il Duce and his band of Merry Morons are about to capitulate to Iran, the influence of the United States is about to go from low to non-existent.  This could get really ugly and in case anyone has missed it, half of the world's oil supply goes through a choke point right in the region.  If somebody pops a tanker...being long XON might not be a bad trade.

The Russians continue to act ugly both in the Ukraine and all about the periphery of NATO.  They are probably well-enough trained that they will not stumble into something serious but with armed aircraft buzzing one another at supersonic speed, accidents can happen.

Leaving the Geo-political, revised Economic numbers for the forth quarter in the U.S. came out today and they stunk.  The projections of the N.Y. Fed stink as well.  The fear is job numbers on Friday will stink.  As a matter of fact, most everything stinks but our Girl, Janet, said today that there might well be a rate rise this year if events warrant the same.  Which of course means that there will not be unless everything that stinks turns around which right now doesn't look as though that will occur.  Funny, with the world awash in liquidity, everything stinks.  Is there a downside to this unworking state of affairs?  I wonder.

A piece of happy news: rumor has it that the Greek Finance Minister will resign.  He says he will not, but where there is smoke...A welcome event to be sure but perhaps too late in the game.  But another good piece of news for the Greeks is that next week is Holy Week and nothing will be decided.  Now if the Greeks are smart (?) they will present their "plan" this weekend and have open a back door discussion portal to see what has to be changed in order to get an acceptance from the EZ.  They will have over a week to work on it.  That's the way to work this thing P.M. Tsapris.  Hope you are listening.

Finally, the entire world has signed on to the Chinese-sponsored infrastructure bank save for Japan and the U.S.  In fact Il Duce has been lobbying hard against the idea.  No one has listened.  Wonder what the currency in play is going to be?

It is a nasty state of affairs out there, but on we go seemingly without a care.  Is that something to admire or simply another worry?  I am just not sure.

Have a lovely Palm Sunday weekend.

TWO IN A ROW

If you are all-in with the administration today's jobs number was Goldilocks---not to strong, not to weak.  If you are a fairly neutral observer, it didn't quite stink but it wasn't any good either.  Coupled with a lack of anything positive Over Here, continued economic gloom Over There and no real progress with Mr. Putin and his band of thugs, the outlook worsened across the board.

One bright spot was the announced 72 hour cease fire in Gaza which lasted all of 90 minutes with the killing of two Israeli soldiers and the apparent capture of another.  Israel reacted in fury and The Leader actually placed the blame squarely on Hamas for the renewed hostilities.  Where that takes us is any body's guess.  To an ugly weekend I suppose.

As predicted, the Argie Bargies ran into a pretty hot U.S. Circuit Court judge today in the scheduled hearing which resulted in no movement whatsoever and in the Argies renewing their claims that the Judge was bias.  I'm wondering as to the question of despite the millions in fees that Cleary is earning in the representation of Argentina,  whether there is a point where a law firm simply throws up its hands and says, "I just can't deal with these morons any more."  I mean, come on guys, I know dumb is a synonym for annuity but how rich do you really have to be before you begin to lose your self-respect?  I'm sure the well known firm of Sue, Grabbit & Run would be happy to step in which is about what these clowns deserve.  There is certainly a deal to be done but the Argies have turned this entire fiasco into a domestic political issue with the party in power hoping that its stance will give it a leg up in the next elections.  Probably, except that things are getting a bit stickier on the financial.

There is a lot of credit insurance out there and today in record time the ISDA announced that there indeed had been a credit default which means the writers of the CDOs may have to pony up if a compromised is not reached.  Problem is no one know who wrote this stuff or for how much so the longer this hangs around the longer folks are going to be looking over their shoulders.  Confidence and certainty is the glue that binds financial markets.  Markets do not like a state of affairs like this.  Think we're having fun now?  It could get waaaaay better.

Have a good weekend.