Well not so young any more but we are headed to California tomorrow for a week of family weddings and visits to old friends. Too bad, because thing are beginning to get interesting after weeks of pretty stale stuff'.
Puerto Rico got its deal. At least people are saying they did. Seems like it's is really something special. They owe God knows how many of billions of dollars but so far nobody is saying who is going to take a hit. As a matter of fact, all Congress really did was to put a structure in place involving appoint seven people to an oversight board who will make all the tough decisions. Don't you just love politicians? Now I ask my self, self, how do you pay your debts when you don't have any money? Never did get a good answer, so despite what some people are claiming, the bond holders are correct: they are going to get it in the neck. Admit it for gosh sakes! Now you may think this displeases me: au contraire...that's just the way it should be. It's not fair of course but what in life is? This has been a stinking credit for years and if you're dumb enough to keep holding the bag, why complain? The REAL problem is that in similar fact situations in the future some damn fool is going to do the same damn fool thing and suffer the same damn result because he (or she) is too damn stupid to learn from the past...or perhaps lazy is a better word. For example...
Illinois is broke; Chicago is REALLY broke. The Illinois Supreme Court has ruled that any reduction in governmental pensions is unconstitutional. Change the Constitution? Nah. The governor is a Republican, the legislature is Democratic and Rahm"never let a crisis go to waste" Emmanuel's--remember him, solution to his city's crisis is to raise telephone taxes AND issue $2,000,000,000 of new debt secured by real estate taxes. Now that of course means that real estate taxes will have to go up as well (hint: they don't pay for enough as is), but some damn fool is going to buy these bonds because the yield is going to be sky-high on the theory that there will always be a chair when the music stops.
The people that do will not be using their own money; oh no, they'll be "investing" on someone's else's behalf. Some day--and I don't know when--this is going to stop and when it does the only thing I ask of The Big Trader is to let me be around when it does. In the mean time, isn't it wonderful to see these guys almost break their arms trying to put their own backs? Anyway, I'm going to California. Why not? In this mad world it's the most insane place I know.
See you in a week.
Showing posts with label California. Show all posts
Showing posts with label California. Show all posts
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
RANDOM THOUGHTS
So I've been looking into the risk boys at the Fed and I don't have really good vibes about all this. As suspected, they are good, smart guys with not a moment of practical experience in the business of banking meaning there expertise is purely academic. Do you get the feeling that Dustoff is a lot happier with academics and bureaucrats than he is with the rough and tumble guys? Sure looks like it to me which means that a couple of things are going to happen:
1. The sharks will sense blood in the water and move in for the kill and
2. Bye, bye Fed as we know it.
If you have been paying attention, there has been more heard from the Presidents of the regional Feds in the past six months than in the past six years. They sense it and are seriously into turf protection. The people in D.C. aren't bad people, just--I think--the wrong people for the time in which we live. Too bad
The Journal had a very scary leading article today regarding the pension liabilities of the State of California. Horrific. Nuts as well. If one starts as a fireman at age 20 one can retire at age 50 with a pension of 90%. I'll bet that works as it did in New York City when the salary upon which the pension is based is calculated on the last year or two--including overtime in New York City's case. For the municipal unions the time worked was assigned by supervisors and guess what? There was a general understanding that a certain percentage would be "kicked back" to insure A LOT of time on the job in the last year. California is doomed. I wonder what the pension liabilities of the State of Illinois look like. 8-5 the assets have already been stolen
Every pol in the world is now blaming the investment bankers for the plight of sovereign balance sheets. Thirty years ago it was the commercial bankers of the world. Who gets blamed next? Certainly not the Pols who broke the public trust. This is turning into a world-wide Tweed Ring.
Off to see the Illinois grandchildren tomorrow and selection Sunday is upon us. First Robin appeared today along with the Dafs pushing up. I think it's spring. I'm feeling better about life...then I read the papers. See ya
1. The sharks will sense blood in the water and move in for the kill and
2. Bye, bye Fed as we know it.
If you have been paying attention, there has been more heard from the Presidents of the regional Feds in the past six months than in the past six years. They sense it and are seriously into turf protection. The people in D.C. aren't bad people, just--I think--the wrong people for the time in which we live. Too bad
The Journal had a very scary leading article today regarding the pension liabilities of the State of California. Horrific. Nuts as well. If one starts as a fireman at age 20 one can retire at age 50 with a pension of 90%. I'll bet that works as it did in New York City when the salary upon which the pension is based is calculated on the last year or two--including overtime in New York City's case. For the municipal unions the time worked was assigned by supervisors and guess what? There was a general understanding that a certain percentage would be "kicked back" to insure A LOT of time on the job in the last year. California is doomed. I wonder what the pension liabilities of the State of Illinois look like. 8-5 the assets have already been stolen
Every pol in the world is now blaming the investment bankers for the plight of sovereign balance sheets. Thirty years ago it was the commercial bankers of the world. Who gets blamed next? Certainly not the Pols who broke the public trust. This is turning into a world-wide Tweed Ring.
Off to see the Illinois grandchildren tomorrow and selection Sunday is upon us. First Robin appeared today along with the Dafs pushing up. I think it's spring. I'm feeling better about life...then I read the papers. See ya
Thursday, March 4, 2010
HOIST WHITE ENSIGN
Very funny email from a Brit buddy responding to our Secretary of State's offer to straighten out the latest dust-up between the Argies and the Brits over the Malvinas if you're the former or the Falklands you are one of the latter. Ol' Hil can't seem to keep her mouth shut and has now thoroughly pissed off our last remaining ally in favor of the whack-job babe who is running this whack-job country...or so believes my friend. His suggestion was--until I straightened him out--to assist Mexico in recovering Texas. It took a bit but he has now shifted his support to the re-annexation of California...in the spirit of Anglo-American friendship. Let's hear it for the special relationship! Kiss me Hardy.
All kidding aside, however, and to follow on with yesterday's theme, not many people seem to be taking seriously the plight in which some of our states find themselves. California is a mess, New jersey is...well, New jersey and Illinois may be in the worst shape of all. I know it's a tough concept to get one's arms around, but the prospect of a default surrounding one if not more of these political is in fact quite real. Markets are funny things and in today's world the volatility surrounding events is like nothing previously experienced. Event risk of whatever nature can affect market movements in a split second irrespective of underlying soundness and in the cases mentioned soundness is not a word that immediately comes to mind. So I worry, perhaps too much so, but I worry.
More and more the end game seems to be a willingness to inflate ourselves out of the problem we have caused and subtle signals seem to be flashed coming from unexpected places such as the IMF. Today, the governors of the Bundesbank and the Swiss National Bank felt it necessary to speak out in forceful terms against an idea floated by the IMF that a bit more inflation--say, 4.00%--might be a good thing for Europe and for other places as well. I admit I'm a touch biased in believing as I do that there has never in the history of man-kind been an organization that was more useless in search of a mission and spent more money in that effort than the IMF, but the problem is they get press that is actually read. This latest attempt at becoming meaningful is especially dangerous as it plays right into the hands of politicians who will find ANY excuse to avoid making hard decision and adopting unpopular policies to bail out of problems that they created in the first place. Air cover from the IMF? A Godsend. Can a supporting article from Paul Krugman be far behind? Watch.
I'm also wondering how this Kabuki production called health care is going to resolve itself. I also wonder whether the markets, both here and abroad, are watching and waiting and if they care. I really don't know but the issues as to funding raised by Rep. Ryan at last week's dog and pony show and which remain unanswered by The Leader or anybody else for that matter will have an effect. I don't have an answer. If anybody has any ideas I think we would all love to hear them. The next few month are going to be facinating, not only here but around the world.
Later.
All kidding aside, however, and to follow on with yesterday's theme, not many people seem to be taking seriously the plight in which some of our states find themselves. California is a mess, New jersey is...well, New jersey and Illinois may be in the worst shape of all. I know it's a tough concept to get one's arms around, but the prospect of a default surrounding one if not more of these political is in fact quite real. Markets are funny things and in today's world the volatility surrounding events is like nothing previously experienced. Event risk of whatever nature can affect market movements in a split second irrespective of underlying soundness and in the cases mentioned soundness is not a word that immediately comes to mind. So I worry, perhaps too much so, but I worry.
More and more the end game seems to be a willingness to inflate ourselves out of the problem we have caused and subtle signals seem to be flashed coming from unexpected places such as the IMF. Today, the governors of the Bundesbank and the Swiss National Bank felt it necessary to speak out in forceful terms against an idea floated by the IMF that a bit more inflation--say, 4.00%--might be a good thing for Europe and for other places as well. I admit I'm a touch biased in believing as I do that there has never in the history of man-kind been an organization that was more useless in search of a mission and spent more money in that effort than the IMF, but the problem is they get press that is actually read. This latest attempt at becoming meaningful is especially dangerous as it plays right into the hands of politicians who will find ANY excuse to avoid making hard decision and adopting unpopular policies to bail out of problems that they created in the first place. Air cover from the IMF? A Godsend. Can a supporting article from Paul Krugman be far behind? Watch.
I'm also wondering how this Kabuki production called health care is going to resolve itself. I also wonder whether the markets, both here and abroad, are watching and waiting and if they care. I really don't know but the issues as to funding raised by Rep. Ryan at last week's dog and pony show and which remain unanswered by The Leader or anybody else for that matter will have an effect. I don't have an answer. If anybody has any ideas I think we would all love to hear them. The next few month are going to be facinating, not only here but around the world.
Later.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
CALIFORNIA DREAMIN'...
on such a winter's day. Great song. A classic. My wife who grew up in the Sonoma wine country keeps reminding me of it all the time. I stay alive by telling people that the only two good things to have come out of California are Mt. Eden Chard and my wife. Up to this point the order of importance has been kept silent. I need something for emergencies.
As predicted, the Greeks have reached a deal with the EU which will allow them to stay within the Euro zone and prevent a major crisis...for the time being. Or so it seems. Now mind you, there isn't a sane person from Land's End to the Polish border who thinks the Greeks are going to hold up their part of the bargain well into the future but for the moment the Union has been saved and now we can start worrying about Spain and Portugal and the UK not to mention the Euro and the Proud Pound both of which have been slaughtered over the past few weeks. Undoubtably, George Soros and his band of currency pirates are (among others) at work again. Good ol' Georgie, internationalist, advisor to Presidents (Democratic ones) and primary funder of Move On. Org. are hard at work. Georgie sank the Pound back in the seventies, wrecked a couple of asian currencies in the nineties and remains under indictment in France for currency manipulation. Wouldn't it be a kick if that Judge in Spain issues an international arrest order on the basis that he's screwing with his country's currency, the Euro? Do you think The Leader would give the guy up? He's a big fan of world courts as is his boy Holder, the A.G. Just wondering.
Anyway, I was thinking about Greece, grapes, wine, olives and world class nut jobs and realized how much the Greeks and California have in common...and yes, ex-buddy Paul, that too. Bloody Brits. California also owes about a gazillion dollars that they can't repay and which, it is beginning to appear, they can't roll over either. I have this really nasty feeling that the bond guys and international investors...if there are any of those left...are thinking the same thing. If the EU can bail out Greece, will The Leader have to start thinking about a bail-out for California? Will he try? What can he do. and most importantly, will it work.
"I went into a church, I passed along the way...
Well, I got down on my knees and I began to pray!"
California Dreamin' on such a winter's day...great song.
More tomorrow
As predicted, the Greeks have reached a deal with the EU which will allow them to stay within the Euro zone and prevent a major crisis...for the time being. Or so it seems. Now mind you, there isn't a sane person from Land's End to the Polish border who thinks the Greeks are going to hold up their part of the bargain well into the future but for the moment the Union has been saved and now we can start worrying about Spain and Portugal and the UK not to mention the Euro and the Proud Pound both of which have been slaughtered over the past few weeks. Undoubtably, George Soros and his band of currency pirates are (among others) at work again. Good ol' Georgie, internationalist, advisor to Presidents (Democratic ones) and primary funder of Move On. Org. are hard at work. Georgie sank the Pound back in the seventies, wrecked a couple of asian currencies in the nineties and remains under indictment in France for currency manipulation. Wouldn't it be a kick if that Judge in Spain issues an international arrest order on the basis that he's screwing with his country's currency, the Euro? Do you think The Leader would give the guy up? He's a big fan of world courts as is his boy Holder, the A.G. Just wondering.
Anyway, I was thinking about Greece, grapes, wine, olives and world class nut jobs and realized how much the Greeks and California have in common...and yes, ex-buddy Paul, that too. Bloody Brits. California also owes about a gazillion dollars that they can't repay and which, it is beginning to appear, they can't roll over either. I have this really nasty feeling that the bond guys and international investors...if there are any of those left...are thinking the same thing. If the EU can bail out Greece, will The Leader have to start thinking about a bail-out for California? Will he try? What can he do. and most importantly, will it work.
"I went into a church, I passed along the way...
Well, I got down on my knees and I began to pray!"
California Dreamin' on such a winter's day...great song.
More tomorrow
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