Tuesday, April 11, 2017


Holy Week.  Everything south of France is pretty much shut down. Even France.  The French don't believe in much any more but never miss a chance not to work.  Politics does go on, however, no matter where one is and out of no where there might be a four way race in France with the hard left beginning to make noise.  Could they win?  Nah, but the fear is that pulls support from the center left giving Mme. Le Pen a better look at this thing...a far better look, indeed.

Then of course there is the U.S./Russia relationship...or the lack of one.  Why the continuation of the status quo should scare anyone is a bit of a mystery but perhaps it is a reaction to so many people having believed the bunch of dumbos who ran American foreign policy for so long.  No one wishes to have been proven wrong...or dumb for that matter.

Korea is not exactly a garden spot and there has been no sound...none...from the Chinese after fun in the sun in the Palm Beaches.

And...in case you haven't been watching and no one has...Venezuela has a $3,000,000,000 debt repayment coming due tomorrow which they claim they will make.  They probably will but that will also just about tap them out.

The result of all this and more was a flight to quality.  The Great Bond Short that has been in place since The Donald took over has been unwinding, and today the 10 year closed below 2.30%--2.998 to be precise.  The bond guys tell me that's a pretty important number what with the continued international uncertainty and the religious holidays approaching which will drive volume way down.  The swings have really been remarkable and the downward spiral may well continue as there seems to be an almost insatiable demand for long-dated fixed income.  (full disclosure; the WSJ used the same phrase in a similar story...don't know who had the idea first but it fits).

The great thing about this point in time--and the scariest--is that is you pick a conclusion on all that is swirling about you can either make a fortune or lose a fortune.  Gotta love it if you grew up in the risk business.  Problem is, it is all to be determined by the most unpredictable of all things; human beings and political humans at that.  It's a young person's game.  To repeat an old adage applicable to a variety of professions, there are old risk takers and bold risk takers, but very few old, bold risk takers.  I'm getting really old.

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