Thursday, December 1, 2016


Ours.  We've spent the past few days selling our present abode and buying a new one, so this is going to be short.  It has been an emotional experience which also makes it hard to write.

OK, we can probably say we are in the midst of a bond rout with the 10 year closing today yielding 2.44%That is one hell of a move since the election boys and girls indicating that suddenly the entire Street and a good part of the investing world are positive on The Donald or at least what he might mean for the economy.  Whilst I normally pay little attention to the consumer confidence number this week's move upward to over 100% was equally extraordinary.  Of course equities are like a rocket ship aided in no little degree by the announced deal to cut oil production ...more on that in a bit.

Tomorrow brings the jobs report which suddenly is more or less meaningless absent the political ramifications.  Estimates are up 180,000 but once again the quality of what is being reported is open to serious question.  In an age of big data one would think that there could be more of a delineation between bedpans/burgers and quantum physics hires but one has to really struggle to find it.  Memo to President Elect: better reporting is something we desperately need along with believable data which half the time we haven't received.  but right now there are a lot of people around the world staring with shock and awe at where the U.S. appears to be headed and whether Mr. Trump's promises in regard to role of government are about to be fulfilled.  If there is one consistency since his election it is that his Cabinet appointments are doers--you may not like what they do but there are damn few theorists named so far.  To think this is not being closely watched globally is to be sadly mistaken...especially Over There.  That election cycle is coming around at precisely the wrong time for Europe's entrenched interests even in Italy which of course votes this Sunday (Memo to Us: the whole world votes on Sunday, why can't we?).  And even there, the word is "change;" we just don't know what kind it will be.

Finally...oil.  The agreement will last in practice for about a month and then the leaking will start and become a flood.  My buds in the West Texas Town of El Paso tell me there's more damn oil and gas out around their place and in the Permian than anybody ever dreamed about and Good Ol' Donald gonna let us go git it.  And don't forget them Mexicans, they say.  They gotta get their production up and they need us and the money to do it which they only git if Good Ol' Donald gits himself a deal on NAFTA otherwise that boy just gits up and walks away from the table.  Now I don't know whether these guys are right or not but in this business it's a lot what people believe that counts.  They are believers.

Jobs number tomorrow.   Whoopy damn-do.

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