Monday, February 9, 2015


I wouldn't call it a prediction but what I suggested might happen, did.  The 12 year-olds running Greece went off half-cocked last week, got their fannies paddled by the adults running the EU and came home with a sore bum and egg all over their face.  How in the hell their advisor, Lazard, allowed them to do that is beyond me but as it appears they are still being employed, whatever they are getting paid is too much.

The boys thought about what had happened for a few minutes and then the PM went on the telly Sunday night to double down on all that he had been told over the course of the past 72 hours was a non-starter.  Cheers and celebrations in the streets; then comes the dawn.

Greek equities go in the crapper; ditto for all the Euro Bourses.  The run on Greek banks continue and Angie flies Over Here to talk to her buddy, Il Duce, about all things Russian and terror--the meeting another disaster for I.D.  Then comes the announcement that Treasury has sent a delegation to Athens.  What for I ask all that I know who are left alive in D.C. who might know, and nothing comes back except the general view that in Jacob/Jack's treasury more harm usually results from something like this than good as few, if any are over the age of 11 much less 12.  Ideologically, they are probably on the same page as Tsipras which is really not a good thing because they have probably missed what 99% of us Over Here have missed that has turned this thing from a brutal, fiscal negotiation to something very personal.

Last night, Tsipras repeated his demand...DEMAND...for WW II reparations from Germany.  We, here, cannot and do not understand how this was received in Germany.  It is a vile insult to this generation of German people and one which will require an abject apology.  Mind you, I have no view on the merits except from the standpoint of a negotiating position it is about as dumb as one can find.  Angie, who didn't have a hell of a lot of support to be accommodative with which to begin, now has to explain this away to Das Volk.  She can't, and because of it is faced with her own profile in courage...which brings me to another point in this drama.

The guys running Greece have clearly decided that there is no scenario under which Greece would be allowed to leave the Union believing the result of such an act would precipitate the collapse of the EU itself.  Perhaps they are correct.  But if they are wrong then it is disaster for Greece and if they think that the rest of the mob has not drawn up contingency plans for just this event, then they are dumber than I think they are.  The Euros are good at planning; I think they have mapped this event out minute by minute, because in the end, as we have said before, in the context of Europe, Greece is not a real country.  What they would do for an Italy or Spain they needn't do for Greece.  It is of course impossible for this Greek government to come to grips with this but it remains the overlying assessment.

What will happen?  I don't know but the odds in favor of a Greek collapse have just gotten shorter.  They may have passed the point of no return which would be a shame because as I have indicated there was a chance of pushing this down the road a bit until this new government experienced themselves in the ways of the world.  My next bet is that sometime in the next few days there are going to try the Piraus Card, an act of true desperation.  Don't know what that is?  Best check a map.  My really smart friend, Larry, says it's going to be fun to watch.  Not for the Greeks.

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