They have all ganged up on me. Janet, Mario, the whole monetary mob at Jackson Hole. Janet is happy; Mario sounded really happy. Nobody sending any kind of signals of worry. If you take this meeting on face value--and there is no reason not to--the punch bowl will be refilled forever. Which means that there is nothing going on, which means poor Charlie is in deep doo-doo and may have to shift over to a political blog for which there is of course a tremendous need..........Not going to happen.
Somewhere, deep down for no other reason than gut, I still think the Fed is going to move before the end of the year but I must admit the confidence level is considerably lower. On a grander scale, I'm afraid that the administration's fiscal agenda is dead as today's central bank positioning will relieve any concern on the part of politicians for meaningful tax reform. If the economy is as strong as believed, the view will be--all politics being local--take no risk and assume the tide will lift all boats. Of course if the nature of the congress changes...well, worry about that when it happens. I'm not real confident about that scenario either. More and more, risk seems to as being defined in global, political terms. Perhaps that is the right outlook. Why should I worry what with the Premier league in operation and the start of the college season next week. And of course it's still georgeous out here but prayers for our countrymen on the Gulf Coast. This is going to be bad, gang. They are going to need all the help they get.
Great weekend.
No comments:
Post a Comment