Monday, March 27, 2017


...things couldn't get more confusing, along comes today.  Let's review the bidding.  As late as two weeks ago we knew a couple of things for sure:

1.  The Fed was going to have at least three tightening events this year
2.  Manufacturing was on the move
3.  Confidence was way up
4.  There was a ray of sunshine Over There
5.  If you were going to do one thing this year it was stay the hell away from bonds.

Today, the 10 year was at 2.34% from 2.52% and every thing else we knew we found out we didn't. This has been some ride which shows no sign of ending as long as the political parties in this country...and Over There as well stop lobbing absolute bombs at one another.  Yes, the more moderate right came out ahead in Holland which knocked prospects for Mme. LePen down a notch or two but back she comes aided by an apparent infusion of serious cash from a Russian financial institution...SACRE BLU!..a few terrorist inspired murders and a solid showing in the tri-partite debate.  Then of course Greece has been rediscovered and Italy, which has been below the radar has suddenly popped up with recent economic performances which somewhat lag behind those of the aforementioned Greece.  Hozzat happen?  But the big one is next week when, if all goes according to plan, Mrs.May pulls the trigger on BREXIT just as the Euros finally figured out that if (when?) the Brits leave there's going to be hell to pay for those who are left...assuming there is anything left in which one might remain.

The Donald of course didn't help things with what was, honestly, a pretty crass handling of Angie who just wanted a handshake after all.  In a world which for some years now has given itself over to form rather than any substance you would think the guy would be smart enough to play the game at least a little bit.  Nope, not yet but then again he's in the White House with a couple of billion and a wife that makes the former First Lady of France look like the third runner up in the Miss Lug Nut Pageant and I'm going through the fourth  iteration of the new kitchen design.  Maybe that's it: the real world he seeketh not.  Assuming one knows what Beeth the Real World.

I suppose this is a long way of saying we are probably vulnerable to multiple event risks in multiple locations with probably less agreement and coordination among governing parties in the west as we have seen in a long time.  However, I am reminded of the sage wisdom of the great Henry Kissinger who once stated in remarks regarding his former boss that, "zum times it is gut to have people zink the President is a little crazy, ja?"   Funny, a lot of people thought and still think Henry is a bit crazy. Yeah, like a fox, nein?  

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