Friday, November 4, 2016


Jobs number was a Goldilocks 161,000 continuing the trend in numbers and in disposition.  Service sector up, manufacturing down, government up.  Burgers and bed pans but with it came a rise in hourly earnings and productivity ; the former OK the latter nothing to get excited about.  Barring a disaster in November and/or a disaster in the financial markets, the Fed will raise in December to a chorus of silence.  Who cares now or then.  The only thing that counts is next Tuesday's result and all the rest is background noise.  We shall comment when appropriate.

Now, BREXIT and the High Court.

There is of course one thing that all should keep in mind.  The BREXIT referendum came about as a political ploy on the part of Cameron to insert another issue into the general election believing that he had seized the high ground with the British people in determining the future of the nation.  Parliament, never believing that the the referendum had a chance, approved the effort by a 6-1 majority and the referendum was on!  Of course the Tories won a landslide victory over a wretched Labor candidate but having set the date for the referendum it would have to go forward.  No worries was the thought, the Remains would carry the day in a landslide.

The next cogent words heard in Whitehall were something to the effect of, "Bugger, what the bloody hell do we do now?"

Well, Cameron rightfully resigned, Mrs. May won the Speaker's chair after Boris was stabbed in the back, and to the shock of all she actually chose to attempt to carry out the will of the people.  Who ever thought THAT would happen.  So, the Brit political class, having learned a good deal from their younger cousins from across the pond, immediately turn to the courts to solve what they could not solve themselves in order to benefit themselves and the result from a rather select group of judges was never really in doubt.  I could go on but as I have done in the past, I turn to my bud, Gordon, who knows far more about these things and writes far better than me.  I agree with him by the by so take his words as mine.  Scream at me not him if you disagree, but enjoy.  The boy's got pen.

The people may have voted to leave, but they didn't know the terms, and so these have to be known and voted on before we can leave. This is the position of the "moderate" Remainers, but entails the Government putting up for Parliamentary debate its negotiating position in advance of the negotiation ahead (no one has ever accused MP's of having much intelligence). And/or:

Membership of the Single Market has to remain intact. But this rather ignores the determination of the North and Midlands to stop free movement of people, which we know is the price of Single Market membership. And/or:

Only an Act of Parliament can actually take us out (which is what the Judges all just confirmed). This allows such an Act to be debated and, before being passed, to be modified so significantly that BREXIT is hopelessly watered down. And/or:

When the terms of our leaving are finally known, another referendum should be held. This is the most extreme Remain position. However, it has been put forward by the hated Tony Blair, which ensures it will go nowhere, simply because it is he who has proposed it.

All of the Judges are, by definition, leading members of the Establishment and as such are staunch Remainers. One of them is actually one of Blair's closest friends. There was never any doubt which way they would go on this. It will now go on appeal to our Supreme Court. Normally I would expect the same outcome.

HOWEVER. You can imagine the reaction of the Daily Mail, the Sun and the Daily Telegraph. A well deserved and appropriately savage and personal vilification of the three Judges involved is now well underway and will gather in strength. If the Supreme Court agrees with them (11 Judges this time - safety in numbers...), they will all come in for the same treatment. It could, in the end, mean a General Election, which will be fought on the Brexit issue - whether, what terms, etc. And if not quite all MP's are stupid, it is a fact that every single one of them is a self-seeking coward. They will look at the rage of the people, and they will do what they always do, which is to save their own skin. They will support May. May will be re-elected with a massive majority and BREXIT will happen, insha'Allah, the way it should. It will just take a bit longer.

Have a great weekend.

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