Tuesday, October 4, 2016


At least it feels that way.  The pound fell to it's lowest level in thirty years today ostensibly on the announcement by Ms. may that talks will be begin in March on Brexit and the top of the agenda will be immigration.  Supposedly, this put the fear of God into all markets that the UK will be out in the cold, alone, like a poor waif straight out of Bleak House.  Of course this view overlooks the fact that the price of the pound has caused a small boomlet in the British economy through a big jump in exports and the British public seems not to give a toss about it in the first place.  Then again, we are still working off the old EU compact but if the Brits take this attitude and get thrown out.......and with that will end the export of 900,000 German motor cars to the U.K.  Dancing in the streets of Sheffield and Dagenham East to the latest Korean and Japanese pop tunes.  900,000 is a big internal market for the likes of KIA.   As my sons say to me, "Keep in real, dad."  Life is not so easy, and by the by  

     1. There is no joy in the EU as to immigration...certainly not to the extent of losing the Brits over the issue, and
     2.  Ms. May and her mob are a long way from being dumb.  Their timing, as suggested here and other places, may be perfect.

Then there's the small issue of whether the Pound is tanking on it's own or is it because of pressure from the Dollar whose country of origin is desperately trying to convince itself that higher rates are coming, as if a 1/4 of a point even in December would really make a fundamental difference.  Rubbish, but there may be a silver lining in this cloud of uncertainty that being that perhaps--just perhaps--the realization is beginning to set in that we all got this collectively wrong guys and we had better to start trying to figure out ways to get out of it before a bounty is put on the head of any Central Banker found anywhere.

Curiously, if that scenario were to be the case,the  this is the week in which to set the gears in motion.  The World Bank, IMF annual meeting is underway in Washington and whilst nothing of note ever happens in the few days that it runs  aside from the list of CAN YOU TOP THIS cocktail parties and Nirvana for The World's Oldest Profession from six bordering states (alas, Madame Claude is no longer with us hence the class formally brought to the proceedings will be absent), the rumor mill will be in full throated roar and I suspect we shall soon see if Yellen & Cie. are prepared to test the waters.

Anyway, intrigue such as this might be welcome as a replacement (for however brief) to the nonsense we have endured for so long.  Besides, a really good trader's market might come out of this thing for a while.  Good for ol' Charlie as well.  Good, hard copy we call it.  The stuff of dreams.

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