Wednesday, August 24, 2016


No, I'm not thinking of topping myself like poor, ol' Hamlet, but boy, this is really getting tough.  Nothing is happening...nothing.  Well, there as a really good auction in the five year today with the yield coming in at a shade over 1.12% with coverage in record range.  The ten year has been trading in a 10 point range, 1.50-1.60% seemingly forever with the action being from foreign sources given the alternatives out there.  The short end has been slowing ticking up which is giving us probably the flattest yield curve I can remember except for a time long, long ago when it was inverted.  I would not like to be running a bank right now except for the fact that is is getting a bit more expensive to borrow unless you're in the fixed income market because--wait for it--responding to government regulations, the banks have been forced to cut back on their traditional businesses.  There used to be a beer commercial that talked about "men of real genius."  Those guys portrayed in those adds had nothing on our regulators and central bankers of today.  Funny as they were, this group is a gut-buster.

The other thing of course is the "Waiting for Go...ah...Yellen" moment that is scheduled for Friday.  Two days ago the currency market sold the dollar; today the market bought it.  This is seen as a sign that Janet will be bullish on tightening...although it was bearish on Monday.  What it really is is traders (those who are still around) screwing about having nothing better to do, making a pip here and two pips there and giving most of it back in the end.  Except for Sterling which still has a short book like it was 1974.  I keep thinking this could really be fun and expect it will be; Lord, give me a topic.  My words fly least I hope they do.

But September is coming and the gang will be headed back to their jobs from the Midi, Cornwall or the Hamptons and things will liven up I am sure.  The Premiership is in full swing and American football is just around the corner.  Just have to wait it  out.  It will come.  If it be not now, yet it will come.  Very Bardish these days.

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