Tuesday, June 7, 2016


We had a somewhat surprise visit from dear, dear friends from Over There this weekend, hence the absence of a Monday report.  Facinating sets of conversations about Here--they are following this election very closely, and There with the referendum coming up June 23.

These are bright, sophisticated remarkably well-traveled middle aged folks.  They've been together for donkey's years and both had successful careers before retiring. And yet whe the question is put to them in the simplest of tern; are you voting "in" or "out," neither have an answer for the same reasons.  "Bloody Europeans," is the phrase.  "Trying to run everything and doing a lousy job at it," is the gut feeling.  But, "if we go. does that make everything worse" is the "undiscovered country" that ol' Will had the young Dane speak of in that most famous of stage moments.  If I were to guess, they will split their votes and that it appears is just how close this thing is.

That is a bit of a cause for consternation on the part of all but a bit of a life line for our Janet as well.  Clearly having been gob-smacked by the  truly awful jobs number of last Friday Janet had the BREXIT uncertainty to throw out as a reason why the once-certain June rise wasn't so certain anymore without having to put the change in outlook on the shoulders of a lousy job market and a possibly sinking economy.  Certainly not in the face of her pal, Hiliary's increasingly bumpy road to her coronation which could become a lot rockier if he opponant could ever learn to keep his mouth shut.  If they don't move in June, and I do not think they will, they must move in July otherwise bye, bye rate hike until next year.  It appears that in all things financial and political world-wide, uncertainty rules---except at the ECB where Mario is still set on scooping up all the corporate debt he can find starting in a couple of weeks.  So, the Fed tries to go North, the ECB is going South, the Bank of Japan has really no where to go and the Bank of China has seemingly figured out how to devalue it's currency without anyone knowing (and possibly not caring).  What is amusing, however, is the similarity in the statements of the Fed and many of the announcements by the Chinese )not all are in sync) first indicating satisfaction with the status quo and then those which follow taking a 180 degree turn  apparently indicating a return to more "standard" policies.  Then, out of nowhere, a flop back to...if not increased stimilus...a clear desire not to upset the growth scenario...assuming there is one...as we saw yesterday by the Fed and over the past couple of weeks in China.  Only Mario has been consistant..."it's Lousy out there gang and we are going to fix it!"  Of course, depending on what happens on June 23, there my be not much left to fix.

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