Friday, June 10, 2016


In the Daily Mail this morning.  55-45 in favor of BREXIT.  Mind you it was only a sampling of 2000 people but the effect was immediate: equities all over crashed as did fixed income sovereign yields with the Bund falling to 0.01 amid heavy selling I am told  by the Bundesbank to no avail unless you consider keeping it out of negative territory a success.  Come to think of it maybe it is.

Euro bank stocks were murdered.  It's pretty clear that there is simply no appetite for bank shares in this declining yield environment and we are at the stage now where the viability of certain institutions must begin to be questioned.  With no sustainable earning power one wonders how the continuation of bank restructuring can continue for unlike U.S. institutions, the Euro have hardly washed all of their dirty linen and given the dreadful state of the European economy their credit exposure has hardly improved.  This is a weekend of little joy anywhere Over There with hard questions being asked that have very few answers.

As to the poll itself, a number of my Brit  mates have questioned it's accuracy but the over all view that if it isn't 10 points there is certainly a larger percentage in favor of a pull-out than previously thought and at this stage there well may be a "working majority" as the Brits like to say.  If that is the case with all that has been said and done. Mr. Cameron has a hell of a problem.  Having not convinced a majority by this time, picking off public opinion at this late stage is going to be very difficult.  Further, there is nothing remotely on the horizon that can turn this thing around; indeed, the chances are that an external event will only make things worse for the "stay in" mob.  A terrorist incident would be absolutely devastating and with the European Championships being staged in Paris, the venue is supplied...other than English hooligans getting into punch-ups with anybody in a different strip which has already occurred.  A very difficult weekend indeed.

Over Here, equities crashed, yields crashed and confidence clearly took a hit, but right now this place may be the safe haven.  I can't see yields doing anything but continuing to decline and perversely, equities to rise.  I mean, like, where else?  The next few days up to June 23 are going to be very dicey ones.  This is not looking good...not good at all.

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