Thursday, May 5, 2016


Which is probably what we will get tomorrow--nothing too hot, nothing too cold.  Now you know that I believe these numbers are and have been for a while nonsense, but tomorrow's edition is going to be an important one.  Poor Janet has gotten her brush out again and is busily painting herself into a corner so I have a feeling that what we are going to get is something that gives her a bit more time to decide what she's going to do in June.

To be frank, neither she and especially the solid politicos on the FOMC (Lael Brainard, COME ON DOWN!) want to do anything in this election year but they may be forced into another tightening if their precious "data: comes in just a bit too hot otherwise whatever credibility the Fed has left is finally buried.  June is bearable because after that "everyone" will understand that the Fed doesn't want to get out in front in an election year--the New York Times will make damn sure that happens or die trying--but if the numbers point strongly towards a rate rise, bye, bye stock market which has been looking a tad bit skittish as of late.  As the economic numbers still stink, corporate profitability and investment remain poor and not much good is happening anywhere else, that event will pretty much make it a clean sweep of positive outlooks.  So aside from the issue of employment, tomorrow's number is an important one...I might even get out of bed in time to catch it.  Then again, I might not. After all it is Cinco de Mayo...Salute a usted!  Might do that a few more times tonight.

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