Thursday, February 25, 2016


This will take longer than I thought.  There are a lot of mixed messages out there and some odd things going on.  Equities moved up again today along with oil on reports from Venezuela that the Zulus and the Russian and the Qataries were planning a get-together to stabilize prices.  Like, Dude, who cares. The House of Saud announced yesterday that was a no-go and that is that.  Are there really people out there dumb enough to trade on nonsense like this?  If there are, I have a lot of work to do.

Speaking of the Zulus, there was a report today that they have informed the international investment community that they are going to service their foreign debt at whatever cost which of course leads me to believe that a cessation of payments is just around the corner as soon as Maduro is certain that he has enough stashed away somewhere to allow him to live a modest socialist life without fear of Latin Justice.  Vermont, perhaps, with Bernie Sanders, or perhaps Hollywood with Sean Penn and the gang?  Rumors have his government selling gold reserves to raise cash which could possibly be correct, as the country's reserves are dangerously low and sinking rapidly and selling gold privately is a hell of a good way to skim a bit (or a lot) off the top for soon-to-be-unemployed politicians. On a serious note, a default here could be a staggering financial event and Christmas-come-early for the legal profession as the Venezuelan government and its oil company have quite a bit of assets located in the U.S.  They have received quite a bit of support from Russia and China in the past but Russia is tapped out and the Chinese may just decide to cut their losses. After all, who needs Zulu crude?  The world is awash in oil.

And then we have the G-20 meeting in Shanghai coming up as we write where today the index just went in the tank to the extent of about 7%.  Now THAT should be a hot topic over spring rolls and some Maotai not to mention a few other things that might prove to be an embarrassment to the hosts.  Watching the dance around these talks is going to be fascinating.

Finally, Brexit.   I didn't believe this when I read it but some executive from J.P. Morgan said today that he was paying more attention to the bookmakers odds than he was to the opinion polls as to how he was going to position himself going forward in regard to Sterling.  Well I never!  There is at least one honest man left in this business.  Bet he's fired within a week.

Charlie is going to be a busy boy.

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