Tuesday, February 9, 2016


Remember that movie?  It was terrific fun.  The theme throughout was that something really bad was going to happen but nobody could figure out exactly what.  There of course were signs all over the place, but putting them together ah, that was the puzzle.

What's going on out there is like Ghost Busters with signs all over the place and no one really capable or  perhaps prepared is the better word, to put them all together.  There was another big sign today as the Japanese ten-year tumbled into negative territory with the Nikkei crashing almost 6%.  Oh yeah, the ten year note closed at 1.72%.  This is now completely global and no one seems to have a clue as to what to do.  Well, maybe Janet does and we may find out tomorrow but I doubt it.  The chances of a global recession have just gone up a notch as it is clear Japan is going no where, whereas prior to today it was just a worry.  But of course all she can say is that the Fed is watchful, policy is data dependent and that the dual mandate (which is the cause of a big part of this mess) is clearly understood.  If that is the best she can do--and I think it is-- I'm afraid it's "look out below."

Somewhere along the line someone is going to start blaming the Saudis and if you look at it from a pure objective standpoint, there is something to that argument.  It would of course be nice if the House of Saud said, "We were just kidding, guys," and suggested that all concerned sit down and pow-wow about the global price for oil.  My buds in the West Texas Town of El Paso just might become Muslims...as long as there was an exemption for beer in the list of no-nos.  Problem of course, is that nations tend to act in what they perceive to be their best interests and getting the oil price up either aids directly people the Saudis don't like--like the Iranians or people who aid people the Saudis don't like--like the Russians.    WTI closed today at $28.  Trouble and Strife's SUV got 16 gallons of 93 Octane for less than 30 bucks.  Winter mix, too.  I love El Nino and the Saudis.

But this ain't good.  And not all movies have a happy ending.  At this point, Who Ya Gonna Call?  I don't know.  Maybe Janet?  We'll see.

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