Friday, February 12, 2016


Everything bounced back up today.  Equities (DOW) were up 313 at the close; 10 year yield 1.74%; WTI up 12% to $29 and change.  Crazy, completely nutso.

The excuses for Janet's performance started coming in from all points on the compass, followed immediately by anyone to whom the networks would give airtime explaining that the U.S. economy was ticking along rather nicely highlighted by Billy the Dud 's almost euphoric rendition of facts and figures from his crack research team at the New York Fed who couldn't recognize a cow paddy if they stepped in one unless it was drawn for them and inserted in some economics book.  Real world is not its strong suit.

Even Japan, where the Nikkei was down 5% at the close was considered a "buy" and puzzlement was expressed at the strength of the Yen which, according to one of the geniuses, "should be down if the Nikkei was down which just proves that the Nikkei is overdone."  No Dumbo, what that proves is everybody sold the Nikkei and paid back the Yen that had been borrowed in this internal "carry trade," getting back the foreign currency that had been swapped.  Buy Yen, sell Dollars and guess what?  Up go Yen.  Think Dumbo might have been a little slow and still is wearing a bit of the index?  Wouldn't be surprised.  Which brings us back Over Here.

This is a three day weekend.  Everybody was short damn near everything all week but with a global situation like this nobody wants to have much of a position facing three days of no trading.  Everybody got square and when you buy into your shorts to get square, things go up.  Lots of money was made this week and three days of untroubled sleep to look forward to is not a bad thing.  So put away the brass band, we are not out of the woods yet.

And then there is oil.  Before the open one of the Gulf ministers was quoted as saying that the Gulf states were prepared to discuss cuts in production.  SALVATION!  Except, it turns out, that was not exactly what he said.  He added--which was reported conveniently after the close of trading--that the Gulf guys were prepared to talk if everybody else, in and out of OPEC, were prepared to talk about cuts.  Anybody think that Venezuela is prepared to cut?  Nigeria? Russia...and then there is the issue of Il Duce's buddies, the Iranians.   Unless something dramatic occurs over the next few days, we're headed back south again.  Now I may be completely wrong about all of this but I really do have to ask myself if I'm the only one paying attention, but no matter because Sunday will bring clarity to that which is really important.   Arsenal at home to Leicester City and Man City hosting Spurs.  7:00 a.m. start.  Yikes!  Freezing out here in the Fly-Over Zone but nothing with which to stay warm Saturday night.  Got to make the bell...which is harder and harder to do.

Monday we celebrate the birthdays of Washington and Lincoln.  The Dane had this one right again:  "Such a falling off there were."

Back on Tuesday.

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