Tuesday, January 26, 2016


Asia closed stinko this morning and most people were fully expecting a down day Over Here.  Then, early on, came an unconfirmed report from somewhere that there might be a deal in the making regarding oil out put.  Everything turned around and the DOW close up 270 and oil rose 5%.  As of right now, there is no confirmation of any talk on supply.

Far be it from me to suggest that something might be amiss but it is not unknown in the commodity business for a false flag to be raised now and then particularly when market uncertainty is at a heightened level.  Oil moved up but the VIX remained sky-high.  If tomorrow the rumor is debunked oil will move down smartly but leaving behind a few stalwart citizens with smiles on their faces.  This whole market is getting ugly, it really is.  Meanwhile, in the real world, Apple missed, but not by much in IPhone sales and in revenues whilst warning of lower future revenues.  USS Corp...forget it.  I'm afraid, as predicted, this earnings period is going to be disappointing.

On top of that, it seems every one's GDP predictions are heading downward with the "consensus" standing at about 2.1% today.  Its probably going to be worse.  To add to the nervousness, it's Fed meeting day tomorrow and drama is building.  Janet is in a box.  Whatever she does--or says...she's not going to do anything--gets her in trouble.  They are in a box but for years the institution has been trying to keep the home fires burning while those running the country are trying everything they can it seems to dream up policies limiting growth.  I know, I keep saying the same thing over and over but it  bares repeating.  If it is any more apparent that the "double mandate" is a nonsense I don't know what sort of evidence it would take.  The pols have received a free ride: from here on out it is THEY who should be held responsible for this dreadful climate not a bunch of unelected academic economists...not that I have any great love for economists of any ilk...but come on!  Anyway, I've rambled on enough; let's see what tomorrow brings.

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