Monday, October 5, 2015


...but otherwise, my little eye nip and tuck went quite well.  Just waiting for the swelling to go down.

Whilst I was away...the labor numbers on Friday were absolutely awful.  The revisions were even worse.  Economic reports from around the globe were worse than discouraging and I'm thinking, "We're looking at a possible global recession."  Then comes today and with absolutely no encouraging news whatsoever, the DOW is up 308 points and the ten year settles to 2.05%.  Realization that the Fed will not move this year?  Nah.  Has to be more than that and the more is the expectation that we are going to have the fourth resurrection of Quantitative Easing or something similar particularly after Ben Bernake's ridiculous piece in the Journal today on how I...oops, the Fed...saved the economy.  You see, all the models and theories said QE was going to work.  The fact that it didn't do a anything either Over Here or Over There or Over Anywhere for that matter, doesn't mean a damn thing.  It was SUPPOSED to work and therefore, it WILL work so let's try it again.  The equity boys are all-in on this bet so watch the Fed make it happen.  If there is anyone left out there that thinks the market moves on fundamentals, please remove yourself from the general population on the Darwinian belief that future generations will certainly benefit from your non-participation in the gene pool.

This is craziness brought to a new level.  I don't know what the new bubble will be but there will be a bubble, and a crash and a mess of serious proportions.  Adding to the economics will be the final realization that the empress has no clothes and with the the credibility collapse of Janet and the Fed, to whom--or what--does one turn this time around?  Of equal interest is who is going to be "out there" this time.  Probably not the banks who for a variety of reason are not in the credit risk business anymore unless, and this is a big unless, the exposure to hedge funds, investment funds and private equity comes into serious question.  Frankly, I'm not sure about this and I have to do considerably more investigating, but I have a hunch and a bit of a bad feeling.  More on that at another point.

The other thing we should look at is whether the regulators have learned anything from the last go-around?  Probably not, for their monument to regulatory oversight, Dodd/Frank demonstrates that they haven't much of a clue as to what caused the last one.  So I'm gearing up for a few things to talk about over the next few sessions, unless the Cubs get into the play-offs, then up to Chicago.  Not a Cubs fan but heck, that will be the place to be!  The world can wait.

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