Friday, August 28, 2015


This week of course.  It seems as though everyone is happy it's over probably because despite all of the comment it is widely recognized that all of it is guesswork and nobody really knows exactly what happened, why or most importantly, where we are heading.  Maybe we need another week to sort that out.

There was quite an interesting and amusing moment this morning right at the start of the interview with Stanley Fisher on CNBC.  Stan was asked by Steve Liseman if he would comment on Billy the Duds comments made earlier in the week.  You might remember that Dudley was widely credited, although I am quite sure he was clueless, for stopping the stock rout with his statement that the reasons for a rate rise were "less compelling."  Stan always has a bit of a sly smile before be kills you.  It was there, he slaughtered The Dud, and of course the markets, which had been moving slowly higher all morning, stopped, reversed and started moving slowly downward all day.  Nothing bad though; the DOW looked like it was trying to close flat and that's probably where it will wind up.  But Stan did his thing...he kept 'em guessing and with the some more big data next week, this rate move could be in the cards making Charlie here about as wrong as I have ever been about things in a week. What threw the whole thing up in the air was the revised GDP number which, if believable, was quite something.  Jobs next week and then we shall see.

That is not to say this week's "crisis" is over.  No one has really sorted out the full macro direction and the noise being heard is to a great extent very nervous people trying to talk their book.  It didn't seem to me as though there were a lot of true shorts out there--clearly there was short covering that resulted in the rally--but from determined shorts?  I don't think so.  The most interesting comments were that cacaphony of, "China really doesn't affect the U.S. too much."  Maybe, but China affects everyplace else and someone, somewhere has to affect the U.S.  The shift is going to be to Europe next week if they can cobble together anyone important to attend some previously scheduled meetings on Euroland in the last week of August (despite September beginning on Tuesday August always ends on a weekend).  I for one, will be happy.  I think I understand that mob a bit better.  Inscrutable these Chinese, but it was fun.

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